The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Friday, July 26, 2013
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
- S&P 500 1,691.65 -.03%
- DJIA 15,558.83 +.10%
- NASDAQ 3,613.16 +.71%
- Russell 2000 1,048.51 -.19%
- S&P 500 High Beta 26.11 -1.77%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 445.20 -.30%
- Russell 1000 Growth 768.55 +.30%
- Russell 1000 Value 866.98 -.18%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,039.32 -.43%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,256.29 -.65%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 783.32 +.78%
- Transports 6,472.92 -1.72%
- Utilities 504.41 -.36%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.95 +2.20%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 39.71 +1.23%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,123.69 -.19%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 944.97 +.17%
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 192,698 -.24%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 278 -568
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.68 +11.65%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 361,066 +9.60%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,865,700 -.79%
- Total Put/Call 1.0 +26.58%
- OEX Put/Call .98 -19.67%
- ISE Sentiment 97.0 -27.1%
- NYSE Arms .97 +19.75%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.72 +1.43%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.95 -2.75%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.45 -3.87%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.11 -3.19%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,590.92 +.76%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.631 Trillion +.33%
- AAII % Bulls 45.1 -5.5%
- AAII % Bears 22.6 +6.2%
- CRB Index 284.46 -2.22%
- Crude Oil 104.70 -3.48%
- Reformulated Gasoline 304.44 -2.77%
- Natural Gas 3.55 -5.73%
- Heating Oil 301.01 -2.63%
- Gold 1,321.50 +2.0%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.0 -.34%
- Copper 310.55 -1.29%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 324.33 USD/Ton +.93%
- China Iron Ore Spot 132.60 USD/Ton +.68%
- Lumber 322.70 -1.59%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,400.49 -2.45%
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.5% unch.
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0556 unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 118.66 +.88%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +6.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -30.0 +1.0 point
- Fed Fund Futures imply 40.0% chance of no change, 60.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31
- US Dollar Index 81.66 -1.17%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.09 -1.34%
- Yield Curve 225.0 +7 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.56% +8 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.532 Trillion +1.05%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 -2.56%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 172.0 +2.99%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 89.0 -4.30%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 224.17 +4.43%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 108.0 +.93%
- Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 779.95 +4.2%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 381.0 +3 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -6 basis points
- TED Spread 25.0 +.5 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 -1.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +.25 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 77.34 +4.79%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 147.17 -1.76%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 301.74 +8.30%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 115.0 -5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.537 Trillion +1.3%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 996.10 -.30%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 345,300 -700
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% -10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.31% -6 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 513.30 -1.17%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.3 +1.1 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% +10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.65/gallon -.02/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,082 -4.92%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,087.67 +1.19%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 -10.0%
- Rail Freight Carloads 253,434 +2.1%
- Large-Cap Growth +.3%
- Mid-Cap Value -.3%
- Gold & Silver +6.4%
- Coal +5.7%
- Steel +3.8%
- Airlines +3.3%
- Defense +1.3%
- Disk Drives -2.1%
- Semis -2.7%
- Road & Rail -3.0%
- Oil Service -3.4%
- Homebuilders -7.6%
- FDML, FB, CSE, FIRE, OKE, MFB, FURX, GDP, XOOM, PETS, VMW, IM, HBI, LXK, PACW and USTR
- USNA, GNTX, CAKE, HZO, BCC, RGA, CAM, BHLB, MSI, CYH, SLRC, PENN, PNRA, TOWR, MSFT, SLAB, SRPT, BRCM, CROX and CTG
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Restaurant/Biotech Sector Strength
Click Here for Today's Market Take.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
- Volatility(VIX) 12.85 -.93%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.96 -1.12%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.11 -.33%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.52 -2.41%
- ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -17.80%
- Total Put/Call 1.0 +4.17%
- NYSE Arms 1.0 +21.20%
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.50 -2.75%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 147.16 -1.0%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 89.0 unch.
- Emerging Market CDS Index 301.59 +3.55%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +1.25 bps
- TED Spread 25.0 +.25 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +.75 bp
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- Yield Curve 225.0 unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $132.60/Metric Tonne +.38%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -30.0 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -1 bp
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -149 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
NY Post:
Decanter.com:
- China Ships Ply Disputed Waters as Japan Mulls Marine Forces. Ships from China’s new coast guard confronted Japanese vessels in disputed waters as Japan’s Defense Ministry said the country should bolster marine forces and consider a first-strike capability to deal with threats. Four Chinese vessels ordered Japanese ships to leave waters around disputed islands known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan, China’s State Oceanic Administration said on its website. China’s strengthened coast guard began operations on July 22, and the action appeared to mark an escalation as previous maneuvers generally involved three vessels.
- Yen Strengthens Amid Increase in Demand for Refuge; Rand Slides. The yen strengthened against all of its 16 most-traded peers as investors sought safety amid a drop in Asian stocks after disappointing Japanese corporate earnings. The Bloomberg Dollar Index headed for a five-day decline amid bets the Federal Reserve won’t signal a change next week in monetary stimulus. Japanese government 10-year bonds, which are sensitive to inflation, rose even as data showed consumer prices gained the most since 2008. The Japan-U.S. yield gap was little changed. South Africa’s rand slid as China ordered cuts in excess production capacity, dimming export prospects.
- Russia Sees Risks Emerging as Foreigners Amass State Debt. Russia’s financial industry faces risks from surging demand for domestic ruble bonds as investors plow into the securities, competing with local banks for the assets used as refinancing collateral, the central bank said. Non-resident holdings of ruble-denominated sovereign notes, known as OFZs, are now approaching the emerging-market average of 30 percent, compared with 21 percent on Feb. 1 and 7 percent on July 1, 2012, the Moscow-based regulator said in a report today. Bank Rossii and the Finance Ministry plan to start monitoring foreign ownership of OFZs to reduce risks.
- Brazil’s Batista Loses Billionaire Status as Debts Mount. Eike Batista, ranked as the world’s eighth-richest person last year, ceased to be a billionaire after Mubadala Development Co. converted an investment in his companies into debt, further eroding the value of his assets.
- Clearing Next Greek Payment Leads to Talk of 2014 Options. No sooner did European creditors plug one hole in Greece’s finances than they started fretting over the next as the 3 1/2-year tussle between the Athens government and its rescuers looked set to drag into 2014. Euro-area governments today cleared the release of 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion), part of 5.8 billion euros in funding to tide Greece past Germany’s Sept. 22 elections that will determine the course of the crisis management. Less than two hours later, a European Union official was discussing how to fill a 3.8 billion-euro gap expected in 2014.
- European Stocks Slide for First Week in Five on Earnings. European stocks declined for the first week in five as worse-than-estimated earnings from BASF SE and ABB Ltd. raised concern the economic recovery is faltering. BASF and ABB each fell more than 4.5 percent. Sulzer (SUN) AG slumped 19 percent as it planned to sell a unit. Siemens AG (SIE) and Metso Oyj (MEO1V) both declined at least 4.5 percent after cutting their forecasts. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) and Banco Santander SA rose as the pace of recession in Spain slowed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.3 percent to 298.91 this past week.
- Rubber Declines for Second Day as Yen Gains Before Fed Meeting. Rubber fell for a second day as Japan’s currency strengthened on speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain bond purchases, cutting the appeal of yen-denominated contracts. The most-active contract lost as much as 2.2 percent to 250.2 yen a kilogram ($2,529 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and traded at 252.1 yen at 1:06 p.m. local time. The price has gained 0.2 percent this week, bringing this year’s loss to 17 percent.
- IMF Sees Market Volatility Risk in Fed’s Exit From Record Easing. The International Monetary Fund cautioned that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s exit from unprecedented asset purchases could spur market reactions causing “excessive” interest-rate volatility. That would have “adverse global implications,” the fund’s board of directors said today in a statement, part of an annual review of the world’s largest economy. “Effective communication on the exit strategy and a careful calibration of its timing will be critical for reducing these risks,” the Washington-based fund said.
- VIX Contracts Retreat to Five-Year Low as Stocks Surge: Options. The cost of options protecting against U.S. stock swings fell to a five-year low, a sign to Russell Investments and Credit Suisse Group AG that investors are too confident in more equity gains after this year's rally. Implied volatility for options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has dropped 37% to 48.4 from a peak on June 20, according to data complied by Bloomberg on three-month contracts with an exercise price near the gauge. It reached 44.8 last week, the lowest since May 2008.
- Obama Said Not Ready to Decide on Fed Chief for Several Weeks. President Barack Obama won’t announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at least until September, according to an administration official. Obama hasn’t made a decision on naming the next Fed chief, according to the official, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal planning.
- Egyptians Gather for Rival Protests. Mass protests planned; ousted president Morsi ordered held for 15 days and interrogated. Egyptians braced for a bloody confrontation between hundreds of thousands of rival protesters on Friday as prosecutors ramped up criminal accusations against ousted President Mohammed Morsi. Tens of thousands of pro- and anti-Morsi protesters had already filled squares throughout the nation by late Friday afternoon. By early evening, 24 people had been injured in fighting between the two sides in cities throughout the country, according to Egyptian state media. Friday's early taste of violence augured worse clashes after nightfall, after most people in this Muslim-majority country break their daylong Ramadan fast. The Brotherhood has organized as many as 34 protests in Egypt's capital alone and many more in rural governorates.
- Barclays(BCS) Sets Plans to Raise Capital. Convertible-Bond Sale, Possible New Stock Sale, Likely to Be Announced Next Week. Barclays is putting the finishing touches on a plan to boost its capital levels that will likely involve the bank issuing billions of pounds worth of new securities, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Obama, House GOP Gear Up for Fall Budget Battle. One of the few facts in the budget wars in Washington to which both sides generally subscribe is that future deficits are being driven by spending on federal benefits, particularly health, not on the roughly one-third of domestic and defense spending that’s subject to annual appropriation by Congress. Now Congress and the president are heading to a showdown over spending — over that already-shrinking third, which covers everything from bullets for the Army to bureaucrats in the Agriculture Department.
- Uh Ho: Obama Says Vietnamese Dictator Inspired by Founding Fathers. It may come as some unwelcome news to the families of the nearly 60,000 Americans who died in the Vietnam War that the whole thing was just a misunderstanding. That was the impression President Obama gave on Thursday when he spoke to the press after his meeting with Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang.
- Buying banks can be 'dangerous investing': Bove. Analyst Dick Bove is one of the market's biggest advocates for bank stocks, but he is worried that investors may be getting a little too enthusiastic.
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
NY Post:
- EXCLUSIVE: Fed-up Silda Spitzer plans to divorce Eliot after election. Silda Spitzer is privately telling friends she plans to divorce her hooker-loving husband, Eliot Spitzer, Page Six can exclusively reveal. Multiple sources tell us long-suffering Silda — who, he last night admitted, will not be joining him on the campaign trail — “has had enough” and plans to start divorce proceedings after his run for New York City comptroller is over.
- METALS-Copper falls as concerns over China's growth weigh. Copper fell for a second straight day on Friday, as concerns about growth in top consumer China weighed on the outlook for industrial metals demand, but a weak dollar prevented further losses. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange, untraded at the close, was last bid at $6,870 a tonne from a last bid of $7,010 on Thursday.
- Brazil's Embraer sees weakening demand for bigger business jets. Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA has seen early signs of weakening demand for its Legacy 650 business jets in the "super mid-size" segment, Chief Executive Frederico Curado told analysts on a Friday conference call. As a result, Embraer's business jet unit is on track to hit the lower end of its 2013 delivery and revenue targets, he said.
- General Electric(GE) to cut 600 jobs in France-union. General Electric is to cut 600 jobs in France, mostly at its finance arm, a union official said on Friday, as it seeks to cut back on the division's activities in the wake of the banking crisis.
- US presses banks for multibillion payments over mortgage securities. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Royal Bank of Scotland are being pressed for multibillion-dollar payments to the US government over toxic mortgage-backed securities, according to people familiar with negotiations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the US housing regulator, sued 18 international financial groups in 2011, alleging they broke federal securities laws in selling $200bn of mortgage-backed securities and demanding compensation for billions of dollars of losses.
Echoing fears that
European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance –
recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks,
but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the
legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion)
private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative
sovereign-bank feedback loop.
In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of
capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning:
"There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some
Thursday and a big country is in trouble.
"And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the
ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.
While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
Decanter.com:
- Brazil's Economic Slowdown Hampering Wine Imports. Brazil's economic slowdown is hitting middle-class spending power and curtailing demand for wine after annual imports tripled in the past 10 years, citing analysts from Rabobank.
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Small-Cap Growth -.73%
- 1) Networking -1.77% 2) HMOs -1.71% 3) Oil Service -1.28%
- RBS, NGD, MFRM, ARII, HZO, CKEC, EXPE, ABAX, SWI, AIMC, TYPE, QLIK, TPX, CAM, GPN, DRC, GRA, INFA, NTGR, APD, AWAY, TAL, DECK, OKE, CRUS, BGG, TGI, SMTC, FET, DLB, MU, SNDK, FSL, VRTX, BAS and OUTR
- 1) EXPE 2) CRUS 3) HAL 4) XHB 5) SBUX
- 1) BBBY 2) GE 3) PCP 4) FLS 5) RIG
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Large-Cap Growth -.62%
- Restaurants +1.49% 2) Homebuilders +.16% 3) Telecom -.18%
- SBUX, PSO, USU, LOGM, BCOV, ATVI, PFG, VRSN, CLF and MCK
- 1) EXPE 2) GPOR 3) SPXS 4) QLIK 5) HALO
- 1) RTN 2) RYL 3) OPEN 4) PBR 5) LLL
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)