Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- Gold & Silver +1.37% 2) Energy -.12% 3) Utilities -.13%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ANV, EXK, HITK, AKRX and UNXL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) GPOR 2) USO 3) CTB 4) VRX 5) QID
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) PEP 2) MON 3) JEC 4) PRGO 5) DSW
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Obama Faces Toughest Foreign Policy Challenge in Syria. President
Barack Obama faces the toughest foreign policy dilemma of his
administration as he decides how to respond after concluding that
Syria’s regime used chemical weapons against innocent civilians.
Obama “believes there must be accountability for those who would use the
world’s most heinous weapons against the world’s most vulnerable
people,” Secretary of State John Kerry said today. White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters that Obama “has not made” a decision on what action to take.
The issue is coming to a head after the U.S. and other nations,
including the U.K. and France, concluded that Syrian forces launched a
chemical weapons attack on a Damascus suburb last week that opposition
groups say killed 1,300 people. Obama previously warned that such action
would cross his “red line.” “Barack Obama’s administration is in a
grave predicament, much of its own making,” Richard Haass, president of
the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said in a blog posting on
the council’s website. “A president of the U.S. cannot say
something crosses a red line and then go on conducting business
as usual.”
- Obama 2008 Anti-War Stance Strained by Drumbeat to Act on Syria. Among the pivotal moments of Barack Obama’s political career was an October 2002 speech challenging
the tide of public opinion to oppose war with Iraq. His anti-war
stance helped him win the Democratic nomination in 2008, and
later the White House. Now, inside the Oval Office, Obama confronts the
possibility of embroiling the U.S. in another Mideast conflict,
as he considers how to respond to evidence that the Syrian
government used chemical weapons against civilians. “There’s a level of irony,” in Obama’s dilemma, said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist and an adviser on the 2004
presidential campaign of John Kerry, who’s now Obama’s secretary
of state.
- Tepco’s ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Means Government Takes Over in Fukushima. Japan’s
government will lead “emergency measures” to tackle radioactive water
spills at the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant, wresting control of the
disaster recovery from the plant’s heavily criticized operator, Tokyo
Electric Power Co. (9501) “We’ve allowed Tokyo Electric to deal with
the contaminated water situation on its own and they’ve essentially
turned it into a game of ‘Whack-a-Mole,’” Trade Minister Toshimitsu
Motegi told reporters last night in Fukushima. “From now on, the
government will move to the forefront.”
- Yen Rises on Haven Demand Amid Emerging-Market Rout; Aussie Down.
The yen climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts as a selloff
in emerging markets boosted demand for haven assets. Asian shares fell
amid a freefall in the currencies of India and Indonesia, and as
tensions in Syria escalated. The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 98.24 per dollar as of 12:24 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, when it gained 0.2 percent.
It added 0.2 percent to 131.39 per euro, after a 0.3 percent
rise the previous session. The dollar was little changed at
$1.3375 per euro. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback
against 10 major peers, was also little changed at 1,027.83. It
reached 1,031.37 on Aug. 22, the most since Aug. 2. India’s rupee slumped 1.5 percent to 64.3075 per dollar
yesterday, approaching the record low of 65.56 reached on Aug.
22. Indonesia’s rupiah touched 10,900 against the dollar today,
the weakest since April 2009.
- Philippine Stocks Sink to 2-Month Low on State Spending Concern.
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (TEL), the nation’s biggest
company by market value, sank to a six-week low while Aboitiz Equity
Ventures Inc. (AEV) slumped 6.8 percent. SM Investments Corp. (SM),
owner of the nation’s largest shopping-mall operator and biggest grocery
chain, fell to the lowest level in eight months. The Philippine
Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP) lost 4.4 percent to 5,889.82 as of 11:35
a.m. in Manila, heading for the lowest close since June 25 after being
shut yesterday for a holiday.
About 60,000 people gathered in the Philippine capital yesterday
to protest the misuse of public funds after a government report
this month found discretionary budgets from 2007 to 2009 were
spent on dubious projects.
- Asian Stocks Fall as U.S. to Hold Syria Accountable. Asian
stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised to snap a two-day
gain, after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the president will
hold Syria’s government accountable for using chemical weapons. Toyota
Motor Corp. (7203), Asia’s biggest carmaker and the heaviest-weighted
stock on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, lost 0.6 percent in Tokyo.
Billabong International Ltd., an Australian surfwear company, slumped 10
percent after it posted a loss more than three times its market value
and said its core brand was
worthless. Tokyo Electric Power Co. jumped 10 percent after the
government said it would take over the handling of radioactive
water spills at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 131.43 as
of 12:22 p.m. in Tokyo, with five shares declining for every
three that rose on the gauge.
- Rebar Falls Most in a Month as China Construction Activity Slows.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai declined by the most in
almost a month on concern that slowing purchases for construction
projects may reduce demand. Rebar for delivery in January on the
Shanghai Futures Exchange retreated as much as 1 percent, the most since
July 29, to 3,776 yuan ($617) a metric ton and was at 3,784 yuan at
10:05
a.m. local time.
- Rubber Declines From 3-Month High as Stronger Yen Reduces Appeal. Rubber dropped from a three-month
high as Japan’s currency appreciated, cutting the appeal of yen-based futures that entered a bull market yesterday. Rubber for delivery in January on Tokyo Commodity Exchange
fell as much as 0.7 percent to 275 yen a kilogram ($2,800 a
metric ton) and traded at 275.6 yen at 10:43 a.m.
Wall Street Journal:
- Calling Lethal Attack 'a Moral Obscenity,' Kerry Begins Making Case for U.S. Action. In
harsh, uncompromising language, Secretary of State John Kerry began
laying out the U.S. case for possible military action against Syria,
saying there was undeniable evidence that chemical weapons had
been used in a deadly attack against a rebel enclave and that it was "a
moral obscenity." Obama administration planning now centers on
carrying out any U.S. and allied strikes on Syria as part of a coalition
with the backing of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Arab League, rather than the United
Nations, U.S. and European officials said. Such a route could raise
international law concerns but would let the administration avoid a
potentially protracted diplomatic fight at the U.N. with Russia,
President Bashar al-Assad's main backer on the Security Council.
- Debt Drags on China's Growth. Interest Costs Leave Companies With Less Cash to Invest; the Case of Shougang Group. As worries over China's debt problem mount, the burden of paying off
those loans could be the trigger that tips runaway credit into slower
economic growth and financial stress. Few areas illustrate the problems better than the old industrial sector,
where state-owned steel plants and cement kilns continue to borrow and
expand even as overcapacity grows. With debts high and profits low, some
companies, such as state-owned steel giant Shougang Group, are using
new loans to repay old ones, according to Dagong Global Credit Rating
Co.
- Return of the McMansion. Developers Tailor New Housing Stock to Well-Heeled Buyers as Credit Rules Squeeze First-Timers. The average size of a new home now exceeds the lofty levels reached
during the housing boom, the latest indication that the new-home market
is catering more to older, more affluent buyers and less to younger and
first-time buyers.
- Zero Worship: Credit-Card Firms Compete With No-Interest Transfers. Hunt for Customers Pushes Banks to Revive Terms That Were the Rage in the 1990s. U.S. credit-card companies, hungry for new customers as many Americans
continue to shun debt, are pumping up a popular promotion that can be
risky for both lenders and consumers. Financial companies that issue plastic are flooding mailboxes and email
accounts with offers that allow new customers to transfer their existing
credit-card balances from other institutions without paying interest
for as long as two years.
- John H. Cochrane: The Danger of an All-Powerful Federal Reserve. 'Macroprudential' policy thinkers want central banks
to micromanage the entire financial system. Interest rates make the headlines, but the Federal Reserve's most
important role is going to be the gargantuan systemic financial
regulator. The really big question is whether and how the Fed will
pursue a "macroprudential" policy. This is the emerging notion that
central banks should intensively monitor the whole financial system and
actively intervene in a broad range of markets toward a wide range of
goals including financial and economic stability.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -2.0% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 126.75 -1.5 basis points.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
- The S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for June is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.05% gain in May.
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August is estimated to rise to 0.0 versus -11.0 in July.
- Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 79.0 versus 80.3 in July.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Williams speaking, 2Y Treasury auction, weekly retail sales reports and the Germany IFO Business Climate Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.44 +3.29%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.35 -.24%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.78 +.56%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.53 +1.23%
- ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +2.78%
- Total Put/Call .89 +12.66%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.19 +.57%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 140.53 -.03%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 84.50 -1.16%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 323.59 +.40%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 -1.25 bps
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $138.70/Metric Tonne +.07%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.30 -5.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.40 +.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -66 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Syria Is Headed for Western Strike, Russia Says. The
U.S. and its allies are on a “slippery slope” to military intervention
in Syria that will have “extremely dangerous” consequences for the
region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Any military
intervention without UN Security Council approval would be “a gross
violation of international law,” Lavrov told reporters in Moscow
today. He ruled out a Russian military response. World leaders from
Washington to Istanbul called for action to punish Syrian President
Bashar Al-Assad for what they said was his use of chemical weapons as
United Nations inspectors attempted to probe the allegations. Some
Syrian opposition groups say 1,300 people were killed in the Aug. 21
attack in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta. “Western leaders are making
statements that indicates that they won’t wait for the results of this
commission, they have already decided everything,” Lavrov said. “It’s a
very dangerous slippery slope that our Western partners have gone on
before. I hope common sense prevails.”
- Punitive Syria Military Strike Is No Game-Changer in Assad’s War. Anything short of a “sustained” military campaign against
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for his alleged use of chemical weapons
probably wouldn’t tip the balance in favor of rebels, according to
research firm IHS. “An intervention on a small scale would be a
punitive measure, intended to show that there is a price to be paid for
using chemical weapons,” Firas Abi Ali, Middle East analyst at IHS in
London, said today. “It would mean his military capability would become
weaker but would not improve the ability of the insurgents to take urban
areas and hold them.” A lengthy military operation, though,
would hand an advantage to Islamist militants fighting Assad, an
objective Western powers would be reluctant to seek, Abi Ali said.
- Europe Stocks Drop as UniCredit Falls on Italy Wrangling. European
stocks fell for the first time in three days amid political wrangling
in Italy and as orders for U.S. durable goods declined more than
forecast. UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank, retreated 3.5 percent as
members of former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party
threatened to topple Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s government. Royal
KPN (KPN) NV advanced 3 percent as the Dutch phone carrier won the
support of minority shareholder America Movil SAB for the sale of its
German business after acquirer Telefonica SA sweetened its bid. The
Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.1 percent to 304.48 at the close of
trading, as two shares declined for each one that advanced. The volume
of shares changing hands was 57 percent lower than the 30-day average as
markets in London were closed
for a holiday.
- Leveraged Debt Exceeds $2 Trillion in Repression: Credit Markets. It took three decades for the amount
of speculative-grade debt to reach $1 trillion. It took about
seven years to reach $2 trillion as investors sought relief from
the financial repression brought on by near-zero interest rates. The market for dollar-denominated junk-rated debt has
expanded more than eightfold since the end of 1997 from $243
billion, according to Morgan Stanley. That compares with a
quadrupling of the investment-grade market to $4.2 trillion as
tracked by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate
Index. While Federal Reserve policies have pushed investors toward
riskier investments to generate high yields, allowing even the
neediest companies that might otherwise default to access
capital markets, concern is rising that missed payments may soar
when benchmark rates begin to increase. Martin Feldstein, a past
president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said last
week that low rates should be allowed to rise because they’re
driving investors into risky behavior.
- Durable-Goods Drop Imperils Outlook for U.S. GDP Pickup. Orders for durable goods dropped in
July by the most in almost a year, calling into question the
strength of the projected pickup in U.S. growth. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years fell
7.3 percent, the first decrease in four months and the biggest
since August 2012, the Commerce Department said today in
Washington. The retreat was broad-based, with demand excluding
the volatile transportation category unexpectedly falling. The setback
last month proved to be more broad-based than economists estimated with
bookings also falling for items such as computers and appliances. Orders
excluding transportation equipment declined 0.6 percent after a 0.1
percent gain in June. Demand for non-defense capital goods excluding
aircraft, a proxy for future business investment in computers,
electronics and other equipment, fell 3.3 percent in July, the biggest
decrease in five months. Shipments of those products, a measure used in
calculating
gross domestic product, declined 1.5 percent after falling 0.8
percent in June. The setback indicates business investment was
gaining little traction at the start of the third quarter.
- Copper Drops After U.S. Durable Goods Fall More Than Forecast. Copper fell the most this month on
concern that a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. durable-goods
orders signals slower demand growth in the country, the world’s
second-biggest user of the metal. Bookings for goods meant to last
at least three years slid 7.3 percent, the Commerce Department said
today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by
Bloomberg called for a 4 percent drop. Orders waned for aircraft and
capital goods such as computers and electrical equipment. Copper prices
were down 8.1 percent this year through Aug. 23. “The durable-goods
number was a big disappointment,” Brian Booth, a senior market
strategist at Long Leaf Trading Group in Chicago, said in a telephone
interview. “Copper prices started dropping once traders had a chance to
leaf through the report.” Copper futures for delivery in December
declined 1.1 percent to $3.32 a pound at 10:42 a.m. on the Comex in New
York. A close at that price would mark the biggest loss since July 30.
Wall Street Journal:
- Brazil Real Weakens Intraday Despite Central Bank Swap Sale. Brazil's real extended weakening in intraday trade Monday as factors abroad
eclipsed the central bank's swap sale early in the session to offer liquidity
locally. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, the real traded at BRL2.3950 after ending at 2.3534
Friday according to Tullet Prebon via FactSet. The latest weakening came despite central bank efforts to influence the
market earlier in the day with a currency swap auction.
Fox News:
- US waits for allies to determine Syria response. Despite indications that the Obama administration is leaning toward a
military strike in Syria, the U.S. could be hamstrung by its own desire
to wait for the say-so from top U.S. allies. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Monday that the U.S. would only
act in coordination with the international community, according to
Reuters.
CNBC:
- This isn't 1997-98 again – but could it be worse? The current market rout in emerging Asia isn't another late
1990's-style financial crisis, most analysts agree, but some have larger
concerns that the region may have lost its ability to offer investors
"catch-up" growth with the developed world. "This is not 1997, but in many ways the current period is much more insidious and risky," Macquarie said in a report.
- The 5% recovery: Why most are still in recession. How strong the economic recovery has been since the Great Recession ended in 2009 probably depends on viewpoint. For those in the top 5 percent, the recovery has been pretty good. As for the other 95 percent, well ... maybe not so much.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
Washington Times:
Quartz:
Reuters:
- Russia slashes economic growth forecasts, second time this year. Russia
cut its economic forecasts for the second time this year, increasing
pressure on Vladimir Putin to revive growth that has faded since a state
spending splurge helped secure his election to a third Kremlin term. The Economy Ministry slashed its forecasts for 2013 and 2014
after growth in the second quarter of this year was the slowest
since the slump of 2009, documents obtained by Reuters on Monday
showed. The news broke as the president made one of his many tours
to key industrial regions - this time to Kemorovo in the Kuzbass
coalfields - to demand greater urgency in developing Russia's
vast resource base. The lower growth forecast reflects home-grown problems of
weak industrial output - now expected to barely grow this year -
slowing investment and a waning of the feel-good factor that
helped Putin win a third term as president in March 2012. Not even oil prices at a historically-high $110 per barrel
have been enough to avert the slowdown in the world's top energy
producer - even if Russia's external surpluses and low debts do
shield it from the current turmoil in other emerging markets. The Economy Ministry cut its 2013 forecast to 1.8 percent
from 2.4 percent, also hit by weaker exports and consumption
growth. The forecast was below median expectations of 2.5
percent growth in a regular Reuters poll of economists. It downgraded the 2014 outlook to a range of 2.8-3.2 percent
from 3.7 percent.
- Brazil economy facing "mini-crisis" -Mantega. Speaking at a meeting of business leaders in Sao Paulo, Mantega added that despite the challenges of recent currency
volatility and weaker economic growth both domestically and
abroad.
Financial Times:
- The debt dragon: Credit habit proves hard for China to kick. The
Chinese government says its debt problem is under control, but the
people of Pianpo village have cause to disagree. Over the past year they
have seen their water cut off, rubbish
piling up in the streets and their wages going unpaid as debt has
mounted. An elevated motorway soars over the villagers’ concrete
homes, meant to connect them to central Guiyang, one of China’s
fastest-growing cities. Instead, the slip road to Pianpo ends in a patch
of gravel.
The Guardian:
- Iraq: at least 46 killed in bomb attacks. Car and roadside bombings in Baghdad and northern city of Baquba follow one of country's worst spates of violence.
A series of bomb attacks across Iraq has killed at least 46 people and
wounded at least another 80, medical officials have confirmed. The
blasts in Baghdad and the northern city of Baquba on Sunday were caused
by car and roadside bombings, according to police and local officials. The
death toll was put at 46 or 47 by different police and hospital
officials. The deadliest of the attacks took place in the centre of
Baquba when a car bomb exploded outside an apartment block killing at
least seven people, although some reports estimated up to 11 died in the
blast. Another 34 people were wounded. A second bombing in Baquba,
close to a wedding party convoy, killed four and wounded 17. Iraqi
authorities said there was a further bombing inside a coffee shop in
Baghdad's Shaab neighbourhood, which killed three and wounded 16. There
were reports that a car bomb at a market in the south-eastern and
largely Shia neighborhood of al-Ameen killed three civilians and wounded
13 others.
Echoing fears that
European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance –
recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks,
but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the
legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion)
private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative
sovereign-bank feedback loop.
In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of
capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning:
"There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some
Thursday and a big country is in trouble.
"And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the
ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.
While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
Repubblica:
- Italy-German Spread to Rise in Crisis, Roubini Says. New York
University Professor Nouriel Roubini says in interview with la
Repubblica that a crisis of PM Enrico Letta's govt would push the
Italian 10-year yield spread with German bunds over 300 basis points in a
few days. Market conditions for Italian bonds will worsen this week, he
said.
Xinhua:
- China Urbanization Drive Has Hidden Risks. China's local
government plans to raise funds for urbanization contain hidden risks.
Local governments, under high pressure to raise funds, are relying on
revenue from land sales. Property curbs have "noticeably" reduced
construction funds, citing a local official from Shandong province's
Qingdao city. Real estate bubbles are appearing because some property
developers are shifting to small- and medium-sized cities, resulting in
huge urban construction investment without market demand. A single real
estate project in Guizhou province's Kaili city has room to house
200,000 people, half of the city's total population. Some local
governments and real estate companies collude to horde land and profit
from land price appreciation.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Utilities -.33% 2) REITs -.15% 3) Steel -.09%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CEL, PTNR, CIG, NRGY, NQ, ING, NOAH, TSN, AMBA, ANF, CTB, PPC, ADM, CNH, ALDW, SINA and MOS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) AMGN 2) EWJ 3) EFA 4) TIF 5) AGQ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) TSN 2) CNH 3) RTN 4) TXN 5) GCOM
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- Biotech +2.47% 2) Gold & Silver +1.73% 3) Coal +1.53%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- QIHU, AMGN, IMMU, ONXX, SSH, SPEX, IPI, DDD, CHRW, AFOP, BIG, OVTI, TSLA, BTU, SSYS and ABFS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CHRW 2) RSH 3) ONXX 4) SWY 5) AMGN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) ALTR 2) DLTR 3) TCO 4) NOC 5) CHRW
Charts: