Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.73%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.97% 2) Hospitals +.12% 3) Restaurants -.09%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MCK, TASR, ISRG, MNST and OUTR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATLS 2) XONE 3) PHH 4) XOMA 5) ACAD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NFLX 2) AMZN 3) MSFT 4) A 5) JCP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Asia’s Crisis of Leadership. The day Asian leaders have long dreaded is here: The era of rapid growth is over. It has taken five years, but the fallout from what Asians call the “Lehman shock” is finally hitting gross domestic product and living standards. These risks are the talk of Bali, where Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation nations are mulling what to do about a world where “risks remain tilted to the downside.”

• Japan Current-Account Surplus Plunges to Record August Low. Japan’s current-account surplus unexpectedly shrank to a record low for an August, underscoring drags on the economy as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to drive an exit from 15 years of deflation. The surplus fell 64 percent from a year earlier to 161.5 billion yen ($1.7 billion), as overseas income dropped for the first time in nine months and imports exceeded exports, a Ministry of Finance report showed in Tokyo. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists was for a 520 billion yen surplus. 

• Asian Stocks Swing on Utilities, Telecom Services. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark index trading near a three-week low, as telecommunication shares dropped while utilities advanced. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), the owner of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, rebounded 5.9 percent after declining 20 percent over the past five days. Cokal Ltd., a coal mine developer, slumped 22 percent in Sydney after saying takeover talks with Blumont Group Ltd. were affected by a record plunge in the buyer’s stock. Blumont soared 62 percent today in Singapore after sinking 85 percent yesterday. Rakuten Inc., which operates a Japanese online mall, fell 12 percent after Yahoo Japan Corp. said it would eliminate vendor fees for its shopping and auction sites. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3 percent to 138.25 as of 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo after falling as much as 0.3 percent.

• Rebar Drops to Lowest in Three Months on China Demand Concern. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell to a three-month low on concern Chinese demand may recede during winter without more government-funded infrastructure projects. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 1 percent to 3,550 yuan ($580) a metric ton, the lowest since July 2, and traded at 3,555 yuan at 9:51 a.m. local time.

• Vale(VALE) Sees Iron-Ore Market Oversupplied From 2015 on New Capacity. Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, said supply of the steelmaking raw material is expected to grow faster than demand, reducing support for future increases in price. Iron-ore producers may have between 5 percent and 6 percent more capacity than demand by as early as 2018 as China steel consumption slows and companies boost output, Vale’s head of Ferrous & Strategy Jose Carlos Martins told reporters in Sao Paulo yesterday. 

Wall Street Journal: 

• Tense Negotiations Inside the Fed Produced Muddled Signals to Markets. The Federal Reserve's decision to continue one of the most audacious experiments in monetary history—an $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program designed to boost growth—followed six months of tense negotiations inside the central bank, and a stumbling effort to let the public know what was going on. A small group of Fed officials has been privately pushing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to plan an exit from his signature program, said several people familiar with the closed-door deliberations. But glimmers of a weakening economy prompted the Fed in September to keep the program going—surprising markets primed by months of central-bank suggestions that a wind-down was nearing.

• Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue. Confidential Documents Reveal Deep Divisions at IMF Over 2010 Greek Bailout. The International Monetary Fund proceeded with its record 2010 bailout of Greece despite deep internal divisions over whether it would work, according to confidential documents that contradict the fund's public statements.

• Alcatel-Lucent to Announce 15,000 Job Cuts. Move Is Firm's Latest Bid to Reshape Itself and Refocus on Core Businesses.

Fox News: 

• Reid, Boehner escalate feud as Senate Dems quietly craft proposal to raise debt limit. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker John Boehner escalated their feud over the budget impasse on Monday, as Senate Democrats quietly crafted no-strings-attached legislation to raise the nation's debt limit. The move by Democrats comes amid Republican insistence that any increase must include concessions on such fiscal matters as entitlement reform or other spending cuts. The Senate proposal attempts to eliminate such fights until after the 2014 elections.

MarketWatch.com: 

• HSBC China September services PMI falls. The HSBC China Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.4 in September from 52.8 in August, HSBC Holdings PLC said on Tuesday. 

CNBC: 

• North Korea puts army on alert, warns US of 'horrible disaster'. North Korea said on Tuesday its military would be put on high alert and be ready to launch operations, stepping up tension after weeks of rhetoric directed against the United States and South Korea, who it accuses of instigating hostility.

Zero Hedge: 

• Julian Robertson Warns "We Are In A Bubble Market" And Yellen Is "Way Too Easy Money".

• Fed Magically Creates $180 Billion In Student And Car Loans Out Of Thin Air. (graph)

• No Planes, No Trains, And No Automobiles As Record Smog Shuts Beijing.

• What Happened The Last 2 Times IPOs Were Outperforming The Market By This Much? (graph)

• Buffett's Bailout Bonanza. The following chart shows just how well one can do with a few billion in your pocket and an ear for what the Government will do.

• Stocks Slump Most In 6 Weeks As VIX Spikes Most In Over 3 Months. (graph)

• Paul Singer: The "Trapped, Harmful" Fed "Revels In The Role Of Atlas, Holding Up The World". (video)

ValueWalk:

• Carl Icahn Buys 61M Shares Of Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM), Shares Surge.

Reuters: 

• Elite U.S. team questions seized al Qaeda leader on Navy ship. An elite American interrogation team is questioning the senior al Qaeda figure who was seized by special operations forces in Libya and then whisked onto a Navy ship in the Mediterranean Sea, U.S. officials said on Monday. Nazih al-Ragye, better known by the cover name Abu Anas al-Liby, is being held aboard the USS San Antonio, an amphibious transport dock ship, the officials said. He is being questioned by the U.S. High Value Detainee Interrogation Group, an inter-agency unit created in 2009 and housed in the FBI's National Security Branch. The group specializes in garnering information from terrorism suspects to prevent planned attacks.

• Norilsk says will take years to deplete nickel stocks, boost prices. Nickel prices are unlikely to recover for another two years as producers struggle with "unprecedented" low prices and a 100,000-tonne surplus, an executive at Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) said on Monday. One-third of global output, about 600,000 tonnes, is unprofitable at current prices, which have been hammered by weak demand and big inventories, particularly in China, head of strategic marketing Anton Berlin said in a telephone interview.

• U.S. SEC sees flaws in new Treasury asset manager report -sources. Federal securities regulators had warned of flaws in a U.S. Treasury draft report that could lead to costly regulations on large asset managers, people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday.

Sankei:

• Abe Cabinet Support Rate Drops 6.6 Points to 58.6%. Support rate for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet falls 6.6 points m/m to 58.6%, according to a poll conducted by Sankei. Disapproval rate rises to 25.7% from 21.1% in Sept. 62.9% of interviewees oppose raising the sales tax to 10% in Oct. 2015; 28.6% supports.

China Securities Journal:

• Beijing, Shanghai Home Sales Rise During Holiday. Beijing new home sales from Oct. 1-6 almost doubled from a year earlier, citing the municipality's commission of housing and urban-rural development.

Evening Recommendations 
Wells Fargo:

• Raised (PG) to Outperform.  

• Raised (AVP) to Outperform.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 117.25 +1.75 basis points. 

• FTSE-100 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (WWW)/1.03

• (AA)/.05

• (YUM)/.92

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September is estimated to rise to 94.3 versus 94.0 in August.

10:00 am EST

• The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October is estimated to fall to 44.0 versus 46.0 in September.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Pianalto speaking, German Factory Orders, BoJ Meeting Minutes, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, (LUX) investors day, (AGU) investor day, (SFE) investor day, (ACN) analyst conference, (HAIN) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Debt Ceiling/Govt Shutdown Worries, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Financial/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.69 +11.65%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.18 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.77 -.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.87 +12.35%

• ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -13.04%

• Total Put/Call .90 +3.45%

• NYSE Arms .92 +24.03% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.95 +2.94%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.88 -.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.0 -4.43%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 285.43 -.22%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 22.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 228.0 -4 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.80 +2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +32 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Hedge Funds Expand Bets With Most Junk Since ’08: Credit Markets. Hedge funds have amassed the greatest share of the $1.2 trillion U.S. junk-bond market since the credit crisis, raising concern bets with borrowed cash will accelerate losses when the Federal Reserve stops printing record amounts of money. The funds, which typically use leverage to bolster returns, hold as much as 23 percent of outstanding dollar-denominated high-yield bonds, from as much as 18 percent last year and the highest since 2008, according to Barclays Plc. Credit hedge funds have boosted assets by 89 percent since 2008, outpacing the 66 percent growth of the junk market, data from Hedge Fund Research Inc. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. 

• European Stocks Drop. Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) retreated 1.2 percent as its chief executive officer told a newspaper that the slowdown in Chinese luxury-goods sales may continue. SAP AG lost 2.2 percent, contributing the most to a decline by a gauge of technology stocks, after a report that the German software maker has held talks with BlackBerry Ltd. Solvay SA (SOLB) climbed 1.2 percent after agreeing to buy U.S. chemicals maker Chemlogics Group LLC. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.2 percent to 309.18 at the close in London, after earlier falling as much as 1 percent.

• New American Economy Leaves Behind World Consumer. The rising American economy isn’t lifting all boats -- and may even sink some. A healthier U.S. even could come at the expense of emerging markets if it turns into more of a competitor than consumer by boosting manufacturing.

• Egypt Violence Spreads as Security Forces Attacked. A shooting and separate explosion targeting Egyptian security forces left at least nine dead a day after 51 people were killed in police clashes with Islamists that fueled the turmoil threatening the nation’s political transition. Five soldiers and one officer were killed when gunmen opened fire on them near the Suez Canal city of Ismailiya, according to Moustafa Younes, a police officer in the province. Three policemen were killed in a blast outside a security installation in Southern Sinai, the Interior Ministry said. Mohamed Darwish, an officer at provincial security directorate, described it as a car bomb. 

• Obamacare Seen Straining Clinics With Medicaid Expansion. 43 percent of doctors in California and a third nationwide won’t take new Medicaid patients. Low pay is one of the reasons. A shortage of Medicaid doctors will leave many newly insured seeking care in a two-tiered system in which they will have access to less experienced medical staff, longer travel times to find a doctor who accepts Medicaid, and be subject to appointment waiting times sometimes weeks longer than those with private coverage.

Wall Street Journal:

• Prospect of Long Shutdown Stokes Concern. Closure's Overall Sting Is Hard to Measure So Far, But Economists Say Debt-Ceiling Deadline Adds Pressure on Markets.

Fox News: 

• ATF tries to block Fast and Furious whistle-blower from publishing book. 

Zero Hedge: 

• Obama Reiterates - Will Only Negotiate After Getting Everything He Wants.

• India's Bipolar Monetary Policy Continues: RBI Cuts Marginal Facility Rate Another 50bps To Boost Liquidity.

• This Is What Keeps Retailers Up At Night.

• World's One-Time Largest FX Hedge Fund On Verge Of Shutdown.

• These Are The Key Debt Ceiling Choke Points.

• BofAML Says This Is The Line In The Sand For S&P 500 Downside Risk. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Medical Tourism Could Be The Overseas Alternative To Obamacare. 

• Star CNBC Producer John Melloy Leaving To Become CEO Of Social Finance Service Stocktwits.

Reuters: 

• Mosaic(MOS) cuts outlook for 2013 global potash shipments. 

• Explosions across Baghdad kill at least 38 people.

• U.S. venture funds raise $4.1 billion, down 18 percent. U.S. venture capital firms raised $4.1 billion last quarter, down almost 18 percent from the same period in 2012, according to data from the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters released on Monday. 

• Frontier markets lure investors chasing yield. After a year of mediocre returns from emerging markets, many investors are searching for yield in so-called frontier markets in hopes that low prices and potential growth will outweigh the risks in little-developed lands.

Telegraph:

• Bank loan book review 'risks eurozone recovery’. Economic recovery in the eurozone is being threatened by the planned review of the loan books of 130 of the biggest banks, a report says today.

Les Echos:

• Burberry CEO Says China Slowdown More Than Temporary. Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts says China slowdown in sales of luxury products may be more than just a "temporary accident" and may constitute a new market trend, according to an interview.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.15%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.82% 2) HMOs -1.56% 3) Banks -1.21%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FST, MILL, IDT, VIV, UBS, CTB, MTRN, VSTM, HTHT, DECK, ANGI, LQDT, NTES, CYOU, RCPT, APFC, RWT, ARII, ANF, CLDX, WLL, NAV, ACRX, BREW, NCR, ASML, FDS, FDO and BYI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTB 2) OUTR 3) DECK 4) HPQ 5) ANGI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HPQ 2) SKS 3) DKS 4) ANF 5) IR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.53%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.07% 2) REITs +.67% 3) Telecom -.04%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CEL, GTN, BFR, TKMR, OUTR, FNP, BEAT, TASR, DAR, INVN and XONE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IP 2) OUTR 3) CTB 4) NOG 5) DLR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMT 2) GOOG 3) BA 4) AAPL 5) VZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume