Bloomberg:
- China New-Credit Drop Shows Shadow-Finance Curbs as Leaders Meet.
China’s broadest measure of new credit fell by more than estimated in
October, suggesting authorities are trying to keep shadow-finance risks
in check as leaders map out a blueprint to sustain growth. Aggregate
financing was 856.4 billion yuan ($140.6 billion), the People’s Bank of
China said yesterday in Beijing, below all nine projections in a
Bloomberg News survey. New local-currency loans of 506.1 billion yuan
compared with the 580 billion yuan median estimate of analysts. M2, the
broadest measure of money supply, rose 14.3 percent from a year earlier.
- ICBC Faces Capital Surcharge as Deutsche Bank, Citigroup Fall. Industrial & Commercial Bank of
China Ltd. was added to a list of too-big-to-fail banks that
must set aside additional capital to guard against losses as
part a global regulator’s plans to protect the economy. ICBC was the
only firm joining the Financial Stability
Board’s annual list of too-big-to-fail banks, which it produces
in preparation for capital rules scheduled to be phased in
starting in 2016. Other changes include lower surcharges for Deutsche
Bank AG (DBK), and Citigroup Inc. (C:US), which both drop out of the
top category and Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
- European Stocks Rise as Grifols Gains, BSkyB Sinks.
European stocks advanced, extending five weeks of gains, amid takeovers
by health-care companies and better-than-forecast industrial output in
China. Grifols SA jumped 4.5 percent after agreeing to buy a unit from
Novartis AG and Shire Plc climbed after saying it will acquire
ViroPharma Inc. Lonmin Plc increased 3.9 percent as the world’s
third-largest platinum producer returned to profit. British Sky
Broadcasting Group Plc plunged the most in five years after BT Group Plc
won the rights to broadcast UEFA Champions League and Europa League
soccer games. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3 percent to 323.57
at the close of trading in London, as three shares advanced for each one
that fell.
- Emerging-Market Stocks Decline for 8th Day as Rupee Sinks. Emerging-market stocks retreated for
an eighth day, poised for the longest slide since 2006, as a
decline in India’s rupee to an eight-week low sank the nation’s shares and spurred concern capital inflows will slow. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased 0.3 percent to 992.41 at 11:43 a.m. in New York. The S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) fell for a fifth day on speculation the rupee’s slump will deter the
central bank from easing liquidity curbs. The Borsa Istanbul
National 100 Index dropped to the lowest level in two months,
led by Akbank TAS. Philippine shares slid the most since Sept.
30 after the nation was battered by Super Typhoon Haiyan.
- Brent Crude Gains After Meeting Ends Without Iran Accord. Brent for December settlement climbed 74 cents, or 0.7
percent, to $105.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures
Europe exchange at 2:02 p.m. in New York. The volume of all
futures traded was 4.8 percent more than the 100-day average.
The contract touched $102.98 on Nov. 8, the least since July 2.
Wall Street Journal:
- Shire Buys ViroPharma(VPHM) for $4.2 Billion. Purchase Boosts Drug Maker's Rare-Diseases Portfolio.
Shire PLC has agreed to buy ViroPharma Inc. for $4.2 billion, extending
its bet on the market for medicines treating rare diseases.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
- Obamacare a single-payer ploy, says ex-GOP Senator. (video)
If opponents of Obamacare were to succeed and the president's
health-care law collapsed, what would take its place? Former Gov. Ed
Rendell predicted Monday that a system like Medicare
for everyone would emerge. "If Republicans and some Democrats who are
attacking Obamacare have their way and Obamacare falls off, I think
we're looking at single-payer down the road," the Pennsylvania Democrat told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
- Citing economy, pension worries, Fitch downgrades Chicago. (video) Fitch Ratings cut Chicago's bond ratings on
Friday, citing the city's sluggish economy and its inability to find a
solution to its union pension obligations. The credit
ratings agency said it downgraded $8 billion in Chicago's unlimited tax
general obligation (ULTGO) bonds to A- from AA-. It also cut $497.3
million sales tax bonds to A- from AA-, and downgraded $200 million
commercial paper notes, 2002 program series A (tax exempt) and B
(taxable) to BBB from A. Fitch said its rating outlook on the city's securities is "negative."
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
- Brevan Howard Overtakes Man Group As Europe’s Largest Hedge Fund. Brevan Howard
is now the largest hedge fund manager in Europe, surpassing Man Group
PLC which was last year’s biggest manager and is this year’s number two,
with $40 billion total assets under management according to a report
from The Hedge Fund Journal listing the 50 largest European hedge funds.
The top five is rounded out by BlueCrest Capital Management, BlackRock,
Inc. (NYSE:BLK), and Winton Capital Management.
USA Today:
Reuters:
- EBRD cuts forecasts for Central European, North African economies. The
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its growth
forecasts for central and eastern Europe and North Africa on Monday,
citing weak demand for their exports and unfinished reforms.
Deflationary pressures were also coming from the euro zone, but internal
risks of deflation were limited, the bank's chief economist said. The EBRD's forecasts for its regions of operation included a drop of half a percentage point for the biggest economy, Russia.
Financial Times:
- Canada’s housing market ‘teeters precariously,’ Financial Times warns. The Financial Times is warning that Canada’s housing market is “perched precariously at its peak.” The
publication has taken a close look at what some observers say is among
the frothiest markets in the world, citing the cranes that dot Toronto’s
skyline and the record debt burden of Canadian families.
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders -1.1% 2) Gold & Silver -.84% 3) Disk Drives -.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- IEP, CRUS, MRIN, DNR, WGO, AEIS, AGCO, FWLT, FE, ACET, BANC, FWM, QUAD, RVBD, SLH, TXTR, PERI, EMES, NS, DIOD, UBNT, VSAT, KOP, RALY, NUS, NCR and FE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) KRE 2) RDN 3) YRCW 4) ARO 5) UTX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) JPM 2) VLO 3) SCHW 4) KLAC 5) CRUS
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Oil Service +.97% 2) Computer Services +.95% 3) Gaming +.91%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- VPHM, GOGO, GRFS, EZPW, ABFS, AEGR, DDD, JASO, FUEL, GTAT and SSYS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) VPHM 2) ANR 3) AEGR 4) FE 5) ABFS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) RIG 2) AMTD 3) CCL 4) BA 5) IBM
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Iranian Nuclear Accord Prospects Clouded as French Object. Envoys
from Iran and world powers may not agree to an accord today that would
ease the decade-long dispute over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear
program, an Iranian official said. Participants are likely to issue a
joint statement and meet again in 14 days, said the Iranian
official, who asked not to be named because of the talks’ sensitivity.
At the same time, talks continued behind closed doors in Geneva, with
little information emerging to help separate posturing and negotiating
tactics from high-stakes bargaining among top diplomats from the seven
countries involved, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
- Hong Kong Luxury Property Prices Choked by Tightening. Hong
Kong businessman Raymond Chiu says he has perfect credit and is
prepared to spend about HK$16 million ($2 million) on a
1,000-square-foot apartment in the city’s Mid-Levels residential area.
There’s just one catch. The government requires a 50 percent down
payment. That’s “really putting us off,” said Chiu, 45, who owns an
information technology consulting company. “I run a business so cash
flow is important. It’s frustrating because this is non-negotiable,
though I have perfect credit history.”
- Euro Recovery Seen Fizzling as Growth Crawl Supports Draghi Cut. Euro-area growth data this week may
show the region’s nascent recovery slowing to a crawl,
supporting Mario Draghi’s case for an interest-rate cut to help
the economy get back to its feet. Gross domestic product in the region rose just 0.1 percent
in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 41
economists in a Bloomberg News survey. In the 3 1/2 hours before
that report on Nov. 14, economists predict a series of data
releases to show growth slowing in Germany and stalling in
France, with Italy remaining mired in an unprecedented slump.
- Chinese Developers Decline on Tightening Fears.
Chinese developer shares fell the most in two weeks amid concerns that
Beijing and Shanghai will implement new measures to curb demand and
rising property prices, prompting other cities to follow suit. An
index tracking property companies listed in Shanghai fell as much as 3.1
percent and was 2.5 percent lower at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break,
heading for its biggest decline since Oct. 25. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent.
- Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall Before China Plenum Ends.
Asian stocks outside Japan fell as investors await the conclusion
tomorrow of a meeting of China’s leaders on economic reform. Japanese
equities rose after better-than-expected U.S. payrolls data weakened the
yen. Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc., an operator of supermarkets and
department stores controlled by billionaire John Gokongwei, slumped 5.4
percent on its trading debut following the largest Philippine initial
public offering. Nexon Co., a maker of online games, plunged 22 percent
in Tokyo after its net-income forecast missed estimates. Honda Motor
Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 47 percent of its revenue in North
America, added 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.5 percent to 467.63 as of 12:56 p.m. in Hong Kong.
- Rebar Falls Amid Concern That Property Curbs May Reduce Demand.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell amid concern that the
Chinese government is strengthening measures to rein in the property
market, reducing demand for the building material. Rebar for May
delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange,
fell as much as 0.8 percent to 3,633 yuan ($596) a metric ton, before
trading at 3,643 yuan at 10:07
a.m. local time. Futures declined 0.3 percent last week.
- Facebook(FB) Director Andreessen’s Firm Sells Third of Shares.
Facebook Inc. (FB) Director Marc Andreessen’s venture-capital firm sold
a third of its holdings in the world’s biggest social-networking
service after the stock price reached a record last month. Andreessen
Horowitz sold 2.28 million shares on Nov. 6, according to a filing with
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. The shares were
sold at about $49 to $50 apiece, making the divestment worth more than
$111 million, the data show. The firm still holds 4.57 million shares.
- BofA(BAC) Should Pay $863 Million in Fannie Mae Case: U.S. Bank
of America Corp. should pay the maximum penalty of $863 million for
selling defective loans to Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC),
given the egregiousness of the fraud, U.S. prosecutors told a federal
judge. Bank of America’s Countrywide unit was found liable by a jury
in Manhattan federal court last month for selling the
government-sponsored entities thousands of defective loans in
the first mortgage-fraud case brought by the U.S. to go to
trial.
Wall Street Journal:
- Big Banks May Block Traders From Chat Rooms. Big
banks are considering blocking employees
from computer chat rooms that have become pervasive tools of the modern
trading floor, but which face mounting scrutiny from regulators as
potential venues for collusion and market manipulation. J.P. Morgan
Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group AG are discussing internally
whether to disable computerized chat rooms that electronically link
traders across multiple banks and are
used by tens of thousands of employees globally, according to people
familiar with the discussions.
- Stocks Regain Broad Appeal. Individual Investors Are Returning to Stocks, Which Could be Bad. Five years after the financial crisis, individual investors are piling
into stocks again amid signs that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining
steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios
that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a
ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But
the renewed optimism among retail investors is considered by many
professionals to be a warning sign, thanks to a long history of Main
Street arriving late to market rallies.
- 'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge. What
do you call a hedge fund that doesn't hedge? The latest growth area for
the industry. On the heels of a multiyear market rally, a
slew of hedge-fund firms are launching "long-only" funds betting that at
least some stocks have further to climb. The moves come amid a brutal
stretch for short bets against companies, traditionally a key strategy
for hedge funds. The new funds also
represent a shift by hedge-fund managers—known for their sophisticated
tactics and exclusivity—into the kind of old-fashioned stock picking
more associated with Main Street mutual funds.
- Vive La France on Iran. The French save the West from a very bad nuclear deal with Iran. We never thought we'd say this, but thank heaven for French
foreign-policy exceptionalism. At least for the time being, François
Hollande's Socialist government has saved the West from a deal that
would all but guarantee that Iran becomes a nuclear power.
- Healthcare.junk. Scam artists are filling the vacuum left by the Obama website failure. So
the national embarrassment known as Healthcare.gov and the 36 federal
ObamaCare exchanges won't be fixed by the end of November after all,
notwithstanding a month of assurances from the White House.
Fox News:
- Senate suggests even tougher sanctions on Iran until final deal reached on nuclear freeze. Senate
leaders showed bipartisan support Sunday for tougher sanctions on Iran
following failed talks this weekend toward curtailing that country’s
nuclear-development program, but also indicated they would likely wait
until after talking to Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry and
other Western leaders wrapped up talks Sunday after failing to agree on a
deal, which purportedly stalled when France rejected a list of demands
on Iran because they were too generous to mean an easing of
international sanctions.
CNBC:
- Foreign buyers are getting in on US energy boom. Foreign investors are emerging as the biggest beneficiaries of the
unfolding U.S. energy revolution—underscoring how the landscape is being
dominated by small, nimble players profiting where oil majors seemingly
cannot.
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope. Three years ago, the Shanghai World Expo featured this newly built town
as a model for how China would move from being a land of farms to a land
of cities. In a dazzling pavilion visited by more than a million
people, visitors learned how farmers were being given a new life through
a fair-and-square deal that did not cost them anything.
Reuters:
- China inflation hits 8-month high amid tightening fear. China's annual inflation climbed
to an eight-month high of 3.2 percent in October as food costs
soared, fanning market worries about policy tightening as
factory output and investment data pointed to signs of
stabilisation in the economy. Inflation, which quickened slightly from 3.1 percent in September, was still lower than a median forecast of 3.3 percent in a Reuters poll and was below the official target of 3.5 percent for 2013.
- U.S. senator to block Obama's nominations over Benghazi. U.S.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Sunday said he will try to block
White House nominations for key jobs until he gets more information on
last year's attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, even after a TV
network pulled back from a story on the attack that Graham had cited. Graham
has threatened to block President Barack Obama's nominations of Janet
Yellen to head the Federal Reserve and Jeh Johnson to head the
Department of Homeland Security until the administration provides more
information on how the attack occurred.
Financial Times:
- ECB split stokes German backlash fears. Divisions
at the heart of the European Central Bank over last week’s rate cut
have revived fears in Frankfurt of a German popular backlash against the
bank’s policy making, even as the ECB faces decisions critical to the
eurozone’s future. People involved in the policy debates said divisions between northern
and southern representatives on the ECB board have been mounting since
market pressures on the eurozone relaxed, with council members freed up
to revert to national interests.
Telegraph:
Bild:
- ECB
President Draghi Abuses Euro-System, Ifo's Sinn Says. Mario Draghi
"abusing" euro-system to give southern European countries cheap loans
they wouldn't otherwise get on capital markets, Hans-Werner Sinn, head
of German economic institute Ifo tells Bild in an interview.
CNA:
- TSMC's
Chang Says Inventories May Take Longer to Digest. TSMC Chairman and CEO
Morris Chang says it will take longer than previously expected for
inventories in the industry's supply chain to adjust to more normal
levels.
Xinhua:
- China Auto Industry Capacity 'Far Exceeds' Demand. Overcapacity indicates outlook for local market won't be "optimistic" in the next few years, citing He Liming, head of China Automobile Dealers Association. As new production capacity is commissioned, price wars will become more likely.
China Daily:
- China
Must Deepen Reform to Sustain Growth. Third Plenum of China's Communist
Party is "sounding the horn to comprehensively deepen reform" as the
country seeks to sustain growth, the party's mouthpiece, says in a
commentary. China needs a new engine of growth and reduce its reliance
on "crude investment," the commentary said. China's government needs to
separate interests and power and use the market to spur economic
vitality, it said. Ruling party needs to find a way for
"self-purification" and improve its management of the country, the
commentary said.
China Securities Journal:
- China Should Aim to Start Property Tax Nationwide in 2015. China
should aim to start a tax on individuals' property nationwide in 2015,
citing a report from the government think tank China Center for
International Economic Exchanges. The nation may revise a tax on coal
and other resources in 2015 to levy based on prices, instead of volume
as done currently, the report said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Bullish commentary on (GLF), (LLL), (HBI), (XRX), (DVN), (AEO) and (IP).
- Bearish commentary on (DDD), (SSYS), (XONE) and (VJET).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 -1.75 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0 +3.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Japanese 30Y Bond Auction, CSFB Healthcare Conference, (CG) investor day and the (NCR) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising long-term rates/energy prices, profit-taking,
technical selling, increasing eurozone/emerging markets debt angst,
more shorting and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading
indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
