Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:02 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.26%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +2.77% 2) Semis +.46% 3) Hospitals +.45%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • JOSB, MW, WDAY, TIF, YPF, PANW, HRL, TTS and SRPT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SYY 2) WDAY 3) OC 4) VRNG 5) TIF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TIF 2) PNC 3) KO 4) ARO 5) JOSB
Charts:
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Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:21 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • China Said to Plan Crackdown on Banks’ Evasion of Lending Limits. China has drafted rules banning banks from evading lending limits by structuring loans to other financial institutions so that they can be recorded as asset sales, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The rules drafted by the China Banking Regulatory Commission ban borrowers from using resale or repurchase agreements to move assets off their balance sheets, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to discuss the rules publicly. 
  • U.S. to Continue Flights in Defense Zone Claimed by China. The U.S. won’t change its flight operations to comply with China’s newly claimed air defense zone in the East China Sea, a Pentagon spokesman said today. “We will not in any way change how we conduct our operations,” Army Colonel Steve Warren told reporters at the Pentagon. U.S. pilots won’t register their flight plans or identify their transponder or frequency, Warren said.
  • India Office Boom Turns Glut With Vacancies: Real Estate. India’s slowing economy has left its big cities with a glut of office space, pushing up vacancy rates, freezing development and prompting some builders to convert commercial projects into housing. Vacancy rates in the financial center of Mumbai and capital New Delhi topped 20 percent in the third quarter, the highest in Asia after Chengdu, China, where 32 percent of offices are empty, according to broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. Six Indian cities are among the 10 office markets with the worst vacancies in the region, according to Cushman. 
  • India Growth Seen Below 5% for Longest Spell Since 2005: Economy. India’s economic growth probably held below 5 percent for a fourth straight quarter, the longest stretch in data going back to 2005, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh struggles to boost investment and tame elevated inflation. Gross domestic product rose 4.6 percent in July through September from a year earlier, compared with 4.4 percent in the prior quarter, according to the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a report due on Nov. 29.
  • Most Asia Stocks Fall as Valuations Approach 6-Month High. Most Asian stocks fell, dragging the regional benchmark index lower for the first time in three days, after valuations climbed to near the highest level in six months. Honda Motor Co. (7267) slid 0.9 percent as the yen strengthened against the dollar, weakening the earnings prospects for Japanese carmakers. Doosan Engineering & Construction Co. (011160) slumped 15 percent after the Korea Economic Daily said the Seoul-based provider of civil engineering and architectural services will sell redeemable convertible preferred shares. Perseus Mining Ltd. rose 5.5 percent in Sydney, leading a rebound in gold producers after the precious metal climbed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 141.68 as of 11:01 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about four shares falling for every three that advanced.
  • Rubber Drops to Two-Week Low After Forecast Surplus May Widen. Rubber declined to a two-week low after a forecast that the global surplus of the commodity will widen through 2015 as production increases. Futures for delivery in April on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange lost as much as 1.8 percent to 256 yen a kilogram ($2,523 a metric ton), matching the intraday low on Nov. 12. Futures traded at 257.3 yen at 11:42 a.m. local time, extending losses for this year to 15 percent. 
  • Rebar Rises in Shanghai on More Signs Output Will Fall in Hebei. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai climbed on further signs that output will decline in Hebei province, the largest producing region in China. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose as much as 0.6 percent to 3,657 yuan ($600) a metric ton, the highest price since Nov. 13. Futures traded at 3,653 yuan at 10:32 a.m. local time. 
  • Paris Office Market Wilts to 10-Year Low as Taxes Crimp Spending. The office take-up in and around Paris is set to fall by 30 percent this year to a 10-year low of 1.8 million square meters, according to broker DTZ. That’s less than in 2009, when the French economy contracted the most since World War II. A tax burden that’s reached a record high under President Francois Hollande and an economy in its second year of stagnation amid the European debt crisis are weighing on spending decisions.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Stephens: Worse Than Munich. In 1938, Chamberlain bought time to rearm. In 2013, Obama gives Iran time to go nuclear. To adapt Churchill : Never in the field of global diplomacy has so much been given away by so many for so little.
Fox News:
  • Deal in hand, will Iran follow path of North Korea? Now that the Obama administration has its nuclear deal with Iran, the big question is can Tehran be trusted to make good on its promises -- or, will it follow the path of North Korea? "I am concerned this agreement could be a dangerous step that degrades our pressure on the Iranian regime without demonstrable actions on Iran's part to end its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability -- a situation that would be reminiscent of our experience over two decades with North Korea," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said in a statement. Critics of the newly struck deal with Iran cite the United States' bruising experience with North Korea over the past two decades. The rogue nation repeatedly led on the U.S. and other nations, only to renege time after time.
  • Almost 80 million with employer health care plans could have coverage canceled, experts predict. Almost 80 million people with employer health plans could find their coverage canceled because they are not compliant with ObamaCare, several experts predicted. Their losses would be in addition to the millions who found their individual coverage cancelled for the same reason. Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute said that in addition to the individual cancellations, "at least half the people on employer plans would by 2014 start losing plans as well." There are approximately 157 million employer health care policy holders.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Boston Globe: 
The Daily Beast:
  • World Doubts Obama Will Enforce Red Line on Iran. The Iran gambit has risks and, if a final deal isn’t achieved after six months, the possibility of war rises. World leaders say President Obama’s credibility to enforce the deadline has been badly damaged.
Reuters:
  • U.S. diners plan even fewer restaurant visits next year-survey. U.S. diners, who have been cutting back on restaurant visits, plan to eat out even less frequently in 2014, according to a new survey from consultancy AlixPartners. For the first time in the five years that AlixPartners has conducted the survey, participants said the No. 1 reason for dining out less was the desire to eat healthier. That answer just edged out the need to trim personal spending.
MNI:
  • ECB's Noyer Says Euro Area Recovery Weak, Fragile. European Central Bank governing council member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said euro area's recovery is weak and fragile, citing Noyer as speaking today at a forum in Beijing.
    The Obama administration will press ahead Friday with tough requirements for new coal-fired power plants, moving to impose for the first time strict limits on the pollution blamed for global warming. The proposal would help reshape where Americans get electricity, away from a coal-dependent past into a future fired by cleaner sources of energy. It's also a key step in President Barack Obama's global warming plans, because it would help end what he called "the limitless dumping of carbon pollution" from power plants.
    Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99
Kyodo:
  • Suga Says Japan Can't Be Bound by China Airspace Zone. Japan told its airline operators that they are not bound by the China airspace defense zone, citing remarks by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.
NHK:
  • Chinese embassy prepares for unexpected occurrence. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo is urging Chinese residents in Japan to register their contact details in case of unexpected emergencies. Officials posted the notification online on November 8th. That's about 2 weeks before China announced a new air defense identification zone over the East China Sea. The zone covers the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands, which are also claimed by China and Taiwan.
Nikkei:
  • Japan, U.S. May Deploy Unmanned Plane to East China Sea. Japan, U.S. may deploy Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft to East China Sea after China announced an air defense zone in the region.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.0 -.75 basis point. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BKS)/-.03
  • (PLCE)/1.85
  • (TIF)/.58
  • (BWS)/.58
  • (CHS)/.24
  • (DSW)/.58
  • (CBRL)/1.58
  • (EV)/.60
  • (HPQ)/1.00
  • (ADI)/.58
  • (ZLC)/-.85
  • (FRED)/.20
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Building Permits for October are estimated at 930K.
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for September is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.93% gain in August.
  • The House Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in August.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 72.6 versus 71.2 in October.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 4.0 versus 1.0 in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The $35B 5Y T-Note auction, UK nationwide home prices, weekly retail sales reports and the (JEC) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
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Monday, November 25, 2013

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:44 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.72 +3.75%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.13 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.59 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.76 +.57%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .77 -18.09%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 +28.88% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.95 -.83%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.19 -2.34%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.0 -.80%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 291.28 +.90%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 245.0 -2 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.50/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.70 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.20 -.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -104 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:18 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Extremist Tide Poses Growing Threat to Europe, Katainen Says. Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen urged voters to embrace more moderate policies as he cautioned against the threat to Europe posed by a surge in extremists bent on splitting the euro area. Katainen asked voters to leave “anti-euro thinking aside,” in a Nov. 21 interview in Helsinki. “Times have been tough for quite a while and that’s showing for the political groups who have been there to clean up the mess.” 
  • RBS Appoints Clifford Chance to Conduct Lending Probe. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc appointed Clifford Chance LLP to investigate whether it pushed companies that owed it money into difficulties to boost profit. RBS said in an e-mailed statement today it appointed the law firm after a report by Lawrence Tomlinson, chairman and founder of LNT Group Ltd., said that once companies were in default, the bank could charge them advisory fees and buy their assets at reduced prices. Business Secretary Vince Cable has referred RBS to the Financial Conduct Authority. 
  • European Stocks Rise on Iran Accord as Air France Climbs. European stocks advanced, after posting their first weekly loss since October, as Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) and Air France-KLM (AF) Group rose with a gauge of travel stocks as oil prices fell after Iran’s accord. PSA Peugeot Citroen gained 5.1 percent after people familiar with the matter said it will appoint a new chief executive officer. Fresenius Medical Care AG surged the most in five years after U.S. regulators scrapped a plan to cut Medicare payments next year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 324.18 at the close in London, 0.5 points away from its May 2008 high reached Nov. 18.
  • Oil Slump Seen as ‘Knee-Jerk’ Reaction to Iran Deal. Brent crude, a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, lost as much as $3 a barrel to $108.05, the biggest intraday loss since June 20, before recovering about one-third of the decline. WTI fell as much as $1.55, to $93.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Wall Street Journal:
  • China Government-Bond Yields Soar. Yields on Chinese government debt have soared to their highest levels in nearly nine years amid Beijing’s relentless drive to tighten the monetary spigots in the world’s second-largest economy. The higher yields on government debt have pushed up borrowing costs broadly, creating obstacles for companies and government agencies looking to tap bond markets. Several Chinese development banks, which have mandates to encourage growth through targeted investments, have had to either scale back borrowing plans or postpone bond sales. The slowing pace of bond sales from earlier in the year is reviving worries of reduced credit and soaring funding costs that were sparked in June, when China’s debt markets were rattled by a cash crunch.
Fox News:
MarketWatch:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Xinhua:
  • China inks regulation to ban official extravagance. In the latest move in China's anti-waste campaign, central authorities on Monday issued a written regulation to standardize fund management and ban Party and government extravagance. The regulation, which contains 65 items and 12 chapters, outlined the proper management of funds for various uses, including official travel, receptions, meetings, official vehicles and buildings. It is meant to guide the Party and government organs in practicing frugality and rejecting extravagance, and is an important move in the spirit of the recently-concluded Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, according to a statement issued by the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the State Council, China's Cabinet.
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:18 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.35%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.30% 2) Gold & Silver -2.0% 3) Steel -1.77%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • ADT, LGF, SDRL, DLLR, BPT, LL, EBAY, MKTX, UBNT, VCRA, RAX, FONR, UNXL, OII, QIHU, FIX, QCOR, CEO, PXD, LYB, YELP, SPLK, MTD, IBM, JKS, CLDX and AREX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ADT 2) BZH 3) FL 4) EBAY 5) TWTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) QCOM 2) PXD 3) SCCO 4) SINA 5) FB
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:54 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.09%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.71% 2) Biotech +.99% 3) HMOs +.73%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FMS, GA, DVA, BKW, EGHT, MDAS, CBST, UVE, CBST, KCG and BIIB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HBAN 2) TXT 3) CNP 4) LL 5) GNK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BK 2) PGR 3) JNJ 4) AAPL 5) GOOG
Charts:
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