Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -1.08% 2) Energy -.85% 3) Retail -.75%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- AZZ, AMBA, SNY, BR, KRO, NBIX, RBCN, GLPI, SHOO, TAL, INGR, SI, QCOR, AKRX, FEYE, REV, CLI, HRS, HOMB, CLX, VRSK, SCSS, TXTR, ABAX, GES, ITG, IBKR, GOGO, ARII and TCS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) UTX 2) COH 3) JNPR 4) SNDK 5) BHI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) TWTR 2) FB 3) THC 4) HUM 5) GS
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +1.63% 2) Semis +1.18% 3) Gaming +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- FRX, APOL, PWRD, CCIH, STZ, ORMP, TASR, SB, QIHU, FLIR, MCK, BITA, MTW, MU, ROVI, RVBD, SODA, SNDK, YELP, MCK, DV and ENDP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) TMO 2) APOL 3) RVBD 4) HUM 5) IRM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) FRX 2) STZ 3) YELP 4) RVBD 5) SBUX
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China’s Credit Hole Seen Limiting 2014 Growth Prospects. China’s new credit probably fell by a record in the second half amid a crackdown on speculative lending, limiting prospects for economic expansion this year as policy makers focus on controlling financial risks. The broadest measure, aggregate financing, was 7.1 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) based on published figures plus economists’ median estimate for December data due in coming days. That would be about 931 billion
yuan less than in July-to-December 2012, the largest drop in figures
going back to 2002.
- Crisis Risk Flagged by Haitong as
Debt Snowballs: China Credit. China's second-biggest brokerage said
record debt threatens to trigger a financial crisis as borrowing costs
jump to unprecedented highs despite a cooling economy. Liabilities at
non-financial companies may rise to more than 150% of gdp in 2014,
raising default risks, according to Haitong Securities Co. The ratio of
139% at the end of 2012 was already the highest among the world's 10
biggest economies, according to the most recent data. "We are concerned
that the debt snowball may be bigger and bigger and turn into a crisis,"
Li Ning, a Shanghai-based bond analyst at Haitong Securities, said in
an interview.
- Thai Army Chief Urges Public to Ignore Rumors of a Coup. Thailand’s army chief urged the public not to believe rumors of a possible coup, saying the movement of military hardware into Bangkok was for an annual parade and not to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. “People are scared of something that hasn’t taken place
yet,” Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha told reporters in Bangkok
yesterday. “Don’t be scared if you can’t see it. Everything
must happen for a reason,” he said, before adding, “without a
reason, nothing will happen.”
- Asian Stocks Rebound Before Minutes; Gas Climbs on Cold. Asian stocks climbed for the first time this year as Japanese shares rallied on a weaker yen before the release of Federal Reserve minutes. Gold fell a second day while natural gas advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent by 12:53 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling to a 2 1/2-week low yesterday.
- Rebar Climbs From 7-Month Low on Signs China Supporting Equities.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures rose
for the first time in four days on speculation that China’s government
will take steps to shore up equity markets and as some investors
considered a drop to a seven-month low overdone. Rebar for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained as much as 0.5 percent to 3,481 yuan ($575) a metric ton
and traded at 3,471 yuan at 10:15 a.m. local time. The most-active contract ended at 3,465 yuan yesterday, the lowest close
since its inception in May.
- Stress Tests Spurring $82 Billion Bad Debt Selloff: Euro Credit.
Skaters gliding across the ice rink
at the five-star Le Meridien Lav hotel are unwitting extras in the final
acts of the financial crisis as they practice their turns on the shores
of the Adriatic Sea. Paying as much as 700 euros ($952) a night,
they’ve kept the Split, Croatia-based hotel afloat since it was seized
by Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank International AG when the owners failed to
manage repayments on about 50 million euros of loans.
- EU Puts Banking-Union Credibility on Line in Resolution Talks. The credibility of Europe’s efforts
to restore confidence in its financial system hangs in the
balance as lawmakers try to broker a deal on a bank-failure
authority for the 18-nation euro area. As U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew tours European
Union capitals to push for tougher banking regulations,
negotiators in Brussels begin a sprint today to create a central
agency for saving or shuttering euro-zone banks before elections
in May.
- Hedge Funds Up 7.4% in 2013 to Trail S&P 500 for Fifth Year. Hedge funds returned an average of
7.4 percent in 2013, trailing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX)
for the fifth straight year as U.S. markets rallied to record
levels. Hedge funds rose less than 0.1 percent in December,
compared with the S&P 500’s 2.4 percent return. The Bloomberg
Hedge Funds Aggregate Index is down 1.8 percent from its July
2007 peak. The index is weighted by market capitalization and
tracks 2,257 funds, 1,264 of which have reported returns for
December.
Wall Street Journal:
- Top 10 Revelations From Robert Gates’s Memoir. Mr. Gates says that domestic politics factored into “virtually every
major national security problem” the Obama White House faced. At one
point, Mr. Gates writes, he witnessed a conversation between Mr. Obama
and Mrs. Clinton in which the president “conceded vaguely” that his
opposition to the 2007 military surge in Iraq was a political
calculation. Mr. Gates called the exchange “remarkable.”
- Selloff Accelerates in Emerging Markets. Worries Over Coming Elections, Growth Prospects Rattle Investors. Investors are bailing out of emerging
markets from Turkey and Brazil to Thailand and Indonesia, extending a
selloff that began last year, amid concerns about faltering economies
and political unrest. Indonesia's
currency on Tuesday hit its lowest level against the dollar since the
financial crisis in Asia trading. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira plumbed
record lows against the greenback this week. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a gauge of stocks in 21 developing
markets, slipped 3.1% in the first four trading days of 2014, building
on a 5% loss in 2013. This compares with double-digit-percentage rallies
in stock markets in the U.S., Japan and Europe last year.
- The Future of Coal: New Pollution Rules Choke Old Power Plants. Southern Co. Builds New Plant That Captures CO2. The Price: $5.24 Billion. The world was riveted in October by eerie
photos of Harbin, an industrial city in northeastern China that was
smothered by thick smog from burning coal. The
U.S. had its own encounters with choking pollution several decades ago.
Though nearly forgotten today, the incidents sparked the creation of
the Environmental Protection Agency and federal regulations that have
reshaped the electricity industry—then and now the country's largest
industrial source of air pollution.
- Shanghai Tower Developers Seek Leasing Agent. The state-owned developer of what will be China's tallest building is
taking the unusual step of moving to hire a leasing agent, underscoring
the challenges of finding tenants as the country's economy cools.
- Federal Probe Targets Banks Over Bonds. Inquiry Looks for Deliberate Mispricing of Mortgage Bonds Key to Financial Crisis.
Federal investigators are probing whether a number of Wall Street banks
cheated clients in the years following the financial crisis by
deliberately mispricing a type of mortgage bond that was central to the
economic turmoil, according to people close to the inquiry. The
investigation is a potential blow to the banks, who are just starting to
move on from years of intense scrutiny tied to their roles in the
crisis.
Fox News:
- Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates slams Obama's leadership style in new book. Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in his upcoming memoir, has
harsh words for President Obama’s leadership style and commitment to the
Afghanistan war, accusing the president of losing faith in his own
strategy. “For him, it’s all about getting out,” he wrote. The tone of Gates’ book is a break from Washington decorum, in which
former Cabinet members rarely level tough judgments against sitting
presidents. Gates writes that by early 2010 he had concluded the president
“doesn’t believe in his own strategy, and doesn’t consider the war to be
his.” The book, “Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War,” is scheduled for a
Jan. 14 release by the Knopf DoubleDay Publishing Group. Excerpts,
confirmed by Fox News, were first reported by The Washington Post and
New York Times.
- Vermont plots course for single-payer health care system. While all eyes are on the ObamaCare rollout, an ambitious health care
experiment is going forward in Vermont that would create a
government-run alternative know as a "single-payer" system -- and it's
starting to attract more attention from liberals frustrated with the
Affordable Care Act's implementation.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
FXStreet.com:
Crain's Chicago Business:
- Chicago vote set on $15 minimum wage.
In a potentially big development that hasn't drawn much attention, the
Chicago Board of Elections gave the OK for a vote in March on whether
the city ought to implement a $15-an-hour minimum wage for many
companies.
The Blaze:
Reuters:
- Fed's Williams expects steady, measured cuts to bond buys.
The Federal Reserve will
make gradual cuts to its massive bond- buying program in coming months
as long as the economy continues to improve, and only a significant
deviation from those expectations would force it to
change tack, a top Fed official said on Tuesday.
"I see us continuing, over the next few meetings, steady
measured reductions in the pace of asset purchases," San
Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told
reporters after a speech.
South China Morning Post:
- China
Develops 'Too Dangerous' Web-Profiling Program. Program developed by
Chinese Academy of Sciences can determine an Internet-user's personality
with 90% accuracy, citing Zhu Tingshao, director of academy's
Computational Cyber Psychology Lab. Program is too dangerous to let out
of lab without greater privacy protections.
21st Century Business Herald:
- China
May Levy Property Taxes on Rural Real Estate. Chinese authorities are
considering the possibility of levying property taxes on real estate
built on collectively-owned land in rural areas, citing a person close
to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
Evening Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (CAKE), (CMG), (EAT), (SBUX) Outperform.
- Rated (DRI) Underperform.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.0 +2.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.50 unch.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- ADP Employment Change for December is estimated at 200K versus 215K in November.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of
-1,651,000 barrels versus a -7,007,000 barrel decline the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,430,000 barrels versus a
+844,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to rise by +2,060,000 barrels versus a +5,042,000 barrel gain
the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by
+.28% versus a -.3% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
- Dec. 17-18 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for November is estimated at $14.250B versus $18.186B in October.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
China Trade data, Eurozone retail sales, $21B 10Y T-Note auction,
Goldman Sachs Energy Conference, (ROVI) investor meeting and the weekly
MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50%
net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Around Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.97 -4.28%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.42 +.15%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.15 -2.56%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.60 -1.80%
- ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +29.92%
- Total Put/Call .70 -1.45%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.77 +1.19%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.82 -1.13%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.0 -3.98%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 274.11 +.38%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 -.5 basis point
- TED Spread 20.0 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 254.0 -3 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $133.80/Metric Tonne -.74%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.0 +11.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +186 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Euro-Area Inflation Slows to 0.8% as Economy Strains to Grow.
Euro-area inflation slowed in
December, retreating farther from the European Central Bank’s ceiling as
the 18-nation currency bloc struggled to strengthen its recovery from a
record-long recession. The annual rate dipped to 0.8 percent from
0.9 percent in November, the European Union’s statistics office in
Luxembourg said in a preliminary estimate today. That’s in line with
the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists. The
rate has been below the ECB’s 2 percent ceiling for 11 months,
and sank to a four-year low of 0.7 percent in October.
- Gold Falls for Second Day on Dollar Rally, Fed Taper Bets.
Gold futures for February delivery fell 0.8 percent to
$1,227.60 an ounce at 9:56 a.m. on the Comex in New York.
Yesterday, the price settled less than 0.1 percent lower after
plunging by more than $30 in about a minute, spurring a 10-second trading pause.
- Syria Rebel Infighting Erupts on Rising al-Qaeda Influence. Syrian rebels seeking to topple
President Bashar al-Assad are turning on al-Qaeda militants who
previously fought alongside them as the rising influence of the
group threatens to scuttle their foreign backing. Fighters from the Free Syrian Army, the main rebel force,
and other Islamist groups clashed with the al-Qaeda linked
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in its northeastern
stronghold, the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said yesterday. Other battles broke out in the northern Aleppo
province. At least 274 people, including 46 civilians, were killed in
fighting from Jan. 3 to Jan. 6, the Observatory said in an e-mailed statement.
- Yellen’s Record-Low Senate Support Reflects Fed’s Politicization.
Janet Yellen’s confirmation as chairman of the Federal Reserve with the
least Senate support on record shows that the central bank still faces
intense political scrutiny six years after the financial crisis. The
Senate vote of 56-26 to confirm Yellen means she garnered even less
support than outgoing Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose 2010 confirmation
for a second term by a vote of 70-30 represented the most opposition for a Fed chief.
Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31.
- Rosengren Signals Support for Taper Strategy After Dissent.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, the only
dissenter against a Fed decision to taper bond buying, said he is now
comfortable with the strategy to gradually cut monthly purchases in the
future. “I preferred to wait before beginning the program, but the
program it looks like we’re embarked on is a very gradual program and I
think a gradual removal of accommodation is appropriate,” Rosengren said today in an interview with Bloomberg News, indicating he would not persist in objecting to
the Fed’s strategy.
Wall Street Journal:
- Brazil Stocks Reverse to Decline Intraday on Ratings Worries. Brazil's Bovespa stocks index gave up an early advance to decline in
intraday trading Tuesday following talk that ratings agency Standard
& Poors could consider lowering the country's credit ratings in
2014. As of 12:30 p.m. EST, the main Sao Paulo index declined 0.9% to 50,513 points. Traders noted the Bovespa erased moderate gains posted earlier in the
session after reports that S&P representatives in a roundtable
discussion with journalists Tuesday affirmed they might still consider a
ratings cut this year before Brazil's October general elections.
CNBC:
- Danger on the rails: New rules could hit stocks. Recent
accidents involving crude oil being shipped from the Bakken area of
North Dakota and Montana are raising eyebrows on Wall Street and have
analysts looking at companies that could be exposed to new rules
governing oil shipments
from the region.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
-
Eurozone losing 'safety margin' against deflation trap as core gauge falls to record low. Fall in inflation raises fears that eurozone is 'sleepwalking into a deflation
trap'.
The great unknown is what will happen in China, now the epicentre of global
risk. Societe Generale said Beijing may be tempted to push down the yuan to
cushion the blow as it pops the credit bubble, and to counter devaluation by
Japan. This would risk a repeat of the East Asia currency war in 1998, this
time on a bigger scale and with the world less able to handle the
consequences.
Xinhua:
- China to Improve GDP Calculation Method in 2014. Ma Jiantang,
head of China's statistics bureau, said China will be rigorous in
calculating quarterly GDP data and local GDP data this year. China faces
problem that the sum of provincial GDP data is higher than the national
figure, the report said. NBS will steadily promote setting up a
"national unified economic calculation system," Ma said.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -1.70% 2) Gold & Silver -1.15% 3) Steel -1.02%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- TWTR, NFLX, PKY, PKT, PBF, TXTR, HGG, EIG, DL, HTGC, CST, MGI, GPOR, PEGI, DISH, TREX, KMX, NOAH, MON, MKTO, MAT, VRTU, MANH, ARMH, ADS, KORS and CCRN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) VWO 2) CBS 3) DXJ 4) FDO 5) JCP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) RSH 2) MAT 3) KORS 4) GPOR 5) CHK
Charts:
