Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.09%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Drugs +1.18% 2) Computer Services +.77% 3) Retail +.63%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FURX, SUSS, AZN, NRF, POM, CHTR, AFOP, RCII, GWPH, PFE, CST, ROP and AVX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NRF 2) MDLZ 3) BSX 4) KERX 5) CCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CHTR 2) AOL 3) IBM 4) AAPL 5) GLW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• U.S. Plans to Hit Putin Inner Circle With New Sanctions. The U.S. and European Union will impose new sanctions as early as today on Russian companies and individuals close to President Vladimir Putin over the escalating crisis in Ukraine, officials said. “We will be looking to designate people who are in his inner circle, who have a significant impact on the Russian economy,” Deputy White House National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program yesterday. “We’ll be looking to designate companies that they and other inner-circle people control. We’ll be looking at taking steps as well with regard to high-technology exports to their defense industry. All of this together is going to have an impact.”
• Europe Lacks Founding Father Glue as Russia, Syria Sow Division. What the European Union needs is someone like John Jay. Appealing in 1787 for the ratification of the U.S. constitution, the American founding father said “a cordial Union, under an efficient national government” would provide “the best security that can be devised against hostilities from abroad.” From Ukraine’s upheaval and the renewed Russian menace to Syria’s civil war and chaotic post-revolutionary Libya, today’s EU confronts no shortage of external dangers. But instead of knitting the bloc’s 28 countries together, the threats have exposed what is keeping them apart.
• Russian Markets Have Worst Week Since Crimea as S&P Cuts Rating. Russian bonds and stocks suffered their worst weekly rout since mid-March as the truce forged to ease tension in eastern Ukraine unraveled, fueling concern that President Vladimir Putin faces stiffer international sanctions. 
• China’s Hebei Reports Growth Slump on Capacity, Pollution Curbs. China’s Hebei province said economic expansion slumped to 4.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, as steel output fell and factories closed amid government efforts to clean up the environment. The increase in gross domestic product compares with national growth of 7.4 percent and the province’s previously reported 9.1 percent pace a year earlier. Hebei’s industrial output rose 3.5 percent in the first three months, down from 12 percent a year earlier, as the province pursued “structural changes to its growth model,” according to a statement on the government’s website dated April 23. The slowdown in Hebei’s expansion underscores the impact of the government’s campaign to reduce industrial overcapacity and contamination of the environment in the world’s second-biggest economy. Premier Li Keqiang said last month he will “declare war” on pollution and pledged to reduce emissions, impose a ceiling on energy consumption and boost clean-water supplies.
• Japan Loses to South Korea Even With Yen Slide: Chart of the Day. South Korea’s product innovation and the rise of the nation’s global brands such as Samsung Electronics Co. have helped it to outperform Japan on exports even after the yen’s slide. 
• IMF Says Asia Must Pursue Structural Changes Amid Volatility. Asian policy makers must push ahead with structural changes to ensure the region continues to lead global growth and withstand volatility as the U.S. reduces monetary stimulus, the International Monetary Fund said. Asian economies will face higher interest rates and bouts of volatility in capital flows and asset prices as global liquidity tightens amid a recovery in advanced nations, the Washington-based lender said in its Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific released today.
• German Ship Captain Swamped in Debt Underscores Bank Risk. As it tries to clean up the region’s banks, the ECB is taking a closer look at whether they need more capital to absorb possible losses on loans like Robrahn’s. Shipping loans are among the riskiest assets on banks’ balance sheets and among those most prone to misstatement, an ECB spokeswoman said. German lenders including Hamburg-based HSH Nordbank, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale controlled about one-third of the $475 billion global ship-finance market at the end of 2012, according to Swen Metzler, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service in Frankfurt.
• Toyota Said to Plan to Move U.S. Sales Office to Texas. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) is moving substantial parts of its U.S. headquarters in Torrance, California, to suburban Dallas as the world’s largest automaker seeks savings from its U.S. sales unit, said people familiar with the matter. The surprise move is a blow to the Golden State, the biggest U.S. auto market and proponent of the strictest clean-air rules. Toyota’s Prius hybrid has been California’s top-selling model for the past two years and helped secure a leading 22 percent market share. It also represents a victory for Texas Governor Rick Perry, who’s made repeated visits to California to lure businesses to his state with promises of lower taxes and easier regulations.
• Chinese Stocks Fall to Five-Week Low on IPO Concerns, China Life. China’s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to a five-week low, after the nation’s biggest life insurer reported a drop in profit and concern grew that new share sales will divert funds. China Life Insurance Co. tumbled the most in six weeks after first-quarter profit slid 28 percent. China International Marine Containers (Group) Co. lost 2.1 percent after net income dropped 42 percent. Huayi Brothers Media Corp. plunged 4.1 percent, dragging down the ChiNext index of small-cap shares. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell for a fourth day, losing 1 percent to 2,016.41 at 9:57 a.m. and heading for the lowest close since March 20.
• Asian Stocks Fall Third Day as Russia Faces New Sanctions. Asian stocks fell for a third day, with the regional benchmark index heading for a two-week low, amid prospects Russia will be subject to new sanctions as tensions over Ukraine intensify. Honda Motor Co. sank 4.7 percent as Japan’s third-largest carmaker forecast a full-year profit that missed analysts’ estimates. Japan Display Inc. tumbled 11 percent after the supplier of screens for Apple Inc.’s iPhones posted operating profit and sales that fell short of expectations. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, rose 3.8 percent as the bullion traded near a two-week high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent to 137.64 as of 9:31 a.m. in Tokyo, with nine of 10 industry groups falling.
• Gold Bulls Return in Time for Rally on Ukraine Tensions. Investors returned to gold just in time for the longest price rally in a month amid mounting tension over Ukraine. Money managers increased their net-long position in gold in the week ended April 22, snapping a four-week retreat that was the longest this year. The metal climbed in the next three days, sending futures to the best start to a year since 2006.
• Saudi Arabia Reports Eight More Deaths in MERS Outbreak. Saudi Arabia reported eight more deaths from Middle East Respiratory Syndrome as the number of cases in the outbreak climbed to 339.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Beefs Up Military Options for China as Obama Reassures Allies in Asia. The U.S. military has prepared options for a muscular response to any future Chinese provocations in the South and East China seas, ranging from displays of B-2 bomber flights near China to aircraft-carrier exercises near its coastal waters, officials said. The menu of options, described by officials briefed on the action plan, reflects concerns that U.S. allies in Asia have questions about the Obama administration's... 
• Highflying Small Caps Get Clipped. Last year's blistering rally in shares of smaller companies may have cooled off, but many investors say the group still appears pricey. In recent weeks, investors have pulled back from the riskier corners of the stock market, and small-company stocks are typically more vulnerable to wide price swings than are large company shares. Investors say they are skeptical that small-company stocks will be able to live up to earnings... 
• Big U.S. Banks Make Swaps a Foreign Affair. As regulators tighten rules on the U.S. swaps market, large American banks are maneuvering to take some of the business overseas. Banks including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley are changing the terms of some swap agreements made by their offshore units so they don't get caught by U.S. regulations, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
• Asia's Export Engine Sputters. Economic Expansion Threatened in Four Major Countries. For decades, Asia fueled its development by selling products to the West. That engine is now sputtering, threatening to sap the region's economic expansion.
  
  Combined exports from Asia's four export powerhouses—China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan—slid 2% in the first three months of this year from the same period last year.
  China's drop is...
• Microsoft(MSFT) Plots Original TV Shows for Xbox. 
• Siemens' New Alstom Bid Disrupts GE Deal. French Government Taps Brakes on Energy-Assets Sale. Siemens AG of Germany barged in on Alstom SA's plans to sell its energy assets to General Electric Co. Sunday, proposing a counter offer that would forge a global behemoth while keeping a symbol of French industry firmly rooted in Europe. Helping Siemens crash the party was France's sharp-elbowed economy minister, Arnaud Montebourg, who cleared a path for the German firm by reminding Alstom Chairman and Chief Executive Patrick...
• The Russia Problem. Putin's Kremlin is not a status quo power with a few historical grievances.  

MarketWatch.com:

• South Korea: North may be planning nuclear test. South Korea said it was seeing indications that North Korea could be preparing to carry out a fourth nuclear weapons test, as Washington warned Pyonyang against doing so.

Fox News:

• Housing – Looking Over the Edge of a Cliff. After underperforming during winter 2014, March’s housing market data was expected to rebound.  That did not happen, and housing remains crucially poised at the edge of a cliff, with higher home prices it seems the only protection.

CNBC:

• Killer virus spreads unchecked as pork hits record.
• What the Fed will do this week—and why it matters.

Zero Hedge:

• Pro-Russian Forces "Parade" OSCE Hostages On TV As Ukraine Air-Force In "Full Operational Readiness" & EU Preps Sanctions 2.0. 
• Satellite Images Reveal Massing Of 15,000 Ukraine Troops, Hundreds Of Tanks Around Slavyansk.
• Ukraine Blocks Crimea Water Supply With Russia Set To Halt Ukraine Gas.
• Martin Armstrong Fears World War III Is On The Horizon.
• Someone Is Betting That The Chinese Currency Collapses By The End Of 2014? (graph)
• BofA(BAC) Warns Treasury Regime Change Is Coming.
• America's Consumers Are Dropping, Not Shopping. (graph)
• 5 Things To Ponder: Smorgasbord. 
• Mortgage Companies Face "Tremendously Difficult" Year As Housing Recovery Crumbles.
• CEO 'Post-Weather' Optimism Collapses To 5-Month Lows. (graph)
• What Lumber's Impending Trend Test Means For Housing. (graph)
• Bitcoin Tumbles After BTC China Halts Funding Amid Concerns PBOC About To Get Serious. (graph)
• The Canadian Housing Bubble Puts Even The US To Shame. (graph)
• This Is Crazy! Current Leveraged Recap Binge Is Clone Of 2007 Mania.

Business Insider:

• Is It Time To Freak Out About Housing?
• Stunning Yet Eerie Photos Show 'Ground Zero' Of Chernobyl Years After The Nuclear Disaster.
• China's President Hints He's Incredibly Anxious About Ethnic Unrest.
• Kim Jong-un To North Korean Troops: 'Nothing Is More Important Than Preparing For Combat Now'.
• CODE RED: Central Banks Will Frantically Pound The Panic Button And Eventually Become Executioners To The World's Currencies.
• BREMMER: Russia Is Looking For Any Excuse For Trouble In Ukraine.
• Why The EU Is Malfunctioning.
• Why A New Skyscraper In Saudi Arabia Could Mean Doom For The Global Economy.
• 17 Emerging Energy Technologies That Will Change The World.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Sell in May?

Commentary Magazine:

• Reality Is Crushing the Obama Presidency.

Financial Times:

• Misery continues for trend-following hedge funds.
• European corporates thwart analysts’ optimism. For the fourth year in a row, consensus expectations for European companies’ earnings growth at the beginning of the year have proved wildly over-optimistic.

Telegraph:

• BP and Shell exposed as US prepares first warning shot against Russia's oil and gas industry. Firms may be forced to curtail operations as G7 powers prepare to launch new sanctions.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (AAPL), (OCN), (GM), (AIG), (PFE), (TRIB) and (ZTS).

• Bearish commentary on (TSLA), (BAC), (LNKD) and (JPM).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.50 +1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 89.75 +2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (TEN)/.86
• (GLW)/.30
• (NOV)/1.38
• (LH)/1.58
• (CNA)/.83
• (L)/.70
• (CRI)/.71
• (TCS)/.27
• (JEC)/.89
• (PCL)/.15
• (HIG)/.93
• (ADVS)/.32
• (PPS)/.63
• (GGP)/.30
• (HLF)/1.29
• (BWLD)/1.34
• (SCCO)/.43 

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for March are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.8% decline in February.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to 6.0 versus 4.9 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising emerging markets/European debt angst, yen strength, technical selling and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,863.40 -.08%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,863.40 -.08%

• DJIA 16,361.40 -.29%

• NASDAQ 4,075.56 -.49%

• Russell 2000 1,123.03 -1.31%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.79 -.45%

• Wilshire 5000 19,509.60 -.23%

• Russell 1000 Growth 859.14 -.26%

• Russell 1000 Value 948.84 +.03%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 449.26 +.20%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,514.88 -.10%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 892.90 -2.53%

• Transports 7,586.14 -.63%

• Utilities 551.66 +1.60%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.37 -.60%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.01 -1.65%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,168.65 +1.15%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 977.32 +.46%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 216,516 +1.01%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 177 -10

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.83 -2.80%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 410,125 +.14%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,619,737 -3.26%

• Total Put/Call 1.13 +34.52%

• OEX Put/Call 3.31 +192.92%

• ISE Sentiment 81.0 -12.90%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +77.91%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.06 +5.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.39 +3.42%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.20 -6.77%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.39 -.36%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,974.65 +.51%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.584 Trillion +.28%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.636 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 34.5 +26.7%

• AAII % Bears 26.0 -24.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 310.69 -.25%

• Crude Oil 100.60 -3.82%

• Reformulated Gasoline 307.51 +.59%

• Natural Gas 4.65 -1.86%

• Heating Oil 298.66 -.77%

• Gold 1,300.80 +.48%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.43 +1.39%

• Copper 312.45 +2.48%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.0 USD/Ton -4.72%

• Lumber 335.50 +2.73%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,568.18 +1.32%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.1% +20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4524 -5.89%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.36 +.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.30 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.60 -1.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30

• US Dollar Index 79.75 -.15%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.49 -.08%

• Yield Curve 223.0 -10 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.66% -6 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.253 Trillion +.30%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.21 +.46%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 +3.98%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 35.32 +.54%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 89.69 +1.59%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 257.0 -2.44%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.0 -.65%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 283.76 +18.06%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 349.88 -1.27%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 21.75 +1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.94 -1.20%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 83.68 +4.66%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 292.84 +5.67%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 84.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.782 Trillion +1.03%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,042.80 -.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 316,750 +4,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.33% +6 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 354.0 -3.31%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -25.4 +3.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.20% +60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.69/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 962.0 +2.78%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,068.89 -.19%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 259,113 -1.99%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +11.8%

• HMOs +4.1%

• Gold & Silver +3.5%

• Coal +3.3%

• Education +3.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Software -2.1% 

• Telecom -2.1%

• Steel -2.8%

• Disk Drives -3.5%

• Social Media -6.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• SRPT, RDEN, AGN, SANM, CNC, SKX, ZMH, SMCI, RCII and SCSS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• MTH, UMPQ, LXK, MGI, CREE, TBBK and MDSO

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.50 +8.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.47 -.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 -.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.57 +4.11%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -34.48%

• Total Put/Call 1.13 +43.04% 

• NYSE Arms 1.70 +57.30% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.23 +1.69%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.68 +4.88%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.32 +2.32%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 88.88 +1.26%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 295.77 +3.57%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 349.88 -.68%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 21.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 223.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.0/Metric Tonne -1.94%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.30 +2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.60 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -119 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long