Friday, May 02, 2014

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,881.14 +.95%*

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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,881.14 +.95%
  • DJIA 16,512.80 +.93%
  • NASDAQ 4,123.89 +1.19%
  • Russell 2000 1,128.80 +.51%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 31.21 +1.36%
  • Wilshire 5000 19,698.40 +.97%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 869.92 +1.26%
  • Russell 1000 Value 956.27 +.78%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 453.11 +.86%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,523.36 +.56%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 903.51 +1.19%
  • Transports 7,698.84 +1.49%
  • Utilities 543.81 -1.42%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 110.01 +1.51%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.44 +1.06%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,163.14 -.47%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 977.05 -.03%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 217,645 +.52%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 174 -3
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.46 +84.64%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 402,237 -1.90%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,651,521 +1.96%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -15.04%
  • OEX Put/Call .71 -78.55%
  • ISE Sentiment 113.0 +39.51%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -43.79%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.91 -8.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.13 -2.16%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.14 -.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.76 -7.51%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 10,997.61 +.21%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.574 Trillion -.39%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$1.392 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 29.8 -13.7%
  • AAII % Bears 29.5 +13.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 307.14 -1.14%
  • Crude Oil 99.76 -.92%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 294.45 -2.59%
  • Natural Gas 4.67 +.78%
  • Heating Oil 292.23 -2.26%
  • Gold 1,302.90 -.05%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.63 -2.48%
  • Copper 307.0 -1.65%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Ton -4.51%
  • Lumber 341.50 +1.76%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,547.72 -1.31%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% +10 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0885 -12.89%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.80 +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.90 +6.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.60 -1.0 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18
  • US Dollar Index 79.52 -.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.95 +.34%
  • Yield Curve 216.0 -7 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.58% -8 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.253 Trillion -.01%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.33 +.70%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 138.0 -.28%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.11 -3.44%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 87.48 -2.46%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 251.20 -2.26%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.44 -.64%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 273.10 -3.75%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.35 +.99%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 -1.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.50 -2.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.02 -4.36%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.16 -6.60%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 281.02 -4.03%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 84.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.787 Trillion +.18%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,031.60 -1.10%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 320,000 +3,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% +10 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.29% -4 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 333.20 -5.88%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.9 +.6 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% +20 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.68/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1017.0 +5.17%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,066.25 -.44%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 264,228 +1.97%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.29%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.13%
Leading Sectors
  • Gaming +6.6%
  • Telecom +4.0%
  • Coal +3.8%
  • Homebuilders +3.2%
  • Airlines +2.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Computer Hardware -.8% 
  • Hospitals -1.0%
  • Utilities -1.4%
  • Disk Drives -2.6%
  • Alt Energy -2.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (19)
  • SUSS, POM, FUR, FURX, VDSI, ENR, LMNX, WTW, AZPN, HWAY, DV, KFRC, OABC, LOGM, CRUS, PGI, COLM, ECHO and ORB
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (38)
  • FET, VSAT, SBH, MBFI, SJW, MDAS, WRLD, VOLC, CNQR, NANO, STCK, GNRC, HAE, PNRA, HOS, JEC, WTS, PRXL, GTLS, CAS, MAS, FARO, NCR, SBSI, DLB, DWA, COH, LOCK, PLUS, OPLK, FEIC, UACL, SLAB, STMP, JDSU, POWI, CAMP and CVLT
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Biotech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.26 +.08%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.02 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.17 +2.99%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +17.65%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +19.75% 
  • NYSE Arms .91 -29.19% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.22 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.16 -.74%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.11 -.96%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.48 +.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.16 -.88%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.35 +.44%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 20.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 216.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $106.0/Metric Tonne +.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.90 +8.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.60 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -67 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Troops Move on Rebel Stronghold Defying Putin. Ukraine sent armored vehicles and artillery to retake Slovyansk, a stronghold for pro-separatist forces, defying President Vladimir Putin’s demand to pull back troops with Russia’s army massed across the border. Interior Ministry forces were dispatched at 4:30 a.m. local time to drive out militants and free hostages, including eight international monitors, minister Arsen Avakov said on Facebook. Rebels shot down two helicopters, killing two pilots, the Defense Ministry said. Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said in a statement “many” rebels were killed, wounded or captured.’’ The United Nations Security Council is preparing to hold an emergency meeting at Russia’s request.
  • Bank of America(BAC) Seen Entering Side Door of Russia Bank Loan Deal. Bank of America Corp. found a side door into a loan for a Russian bank last month to avoid publicity as tensions escalated in the Ukraine, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. When the financing for Credit Bank of Moscow was announced in a March 27 statement, Bank of America wasn’t among the 17 lenders listed. The U.S. lender pulled out of the group before the deal was completed and rejoined after the announcement when the borrower increased the loan under a so-called accordion feature, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
  • European Stocks Retreat on Clashes in Eastern Ukraine. European stocks declined, paring their third weekly gain, as Ukrainian forces clashed with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country. Software AG slid 2.1 percent after first-quarter sales missed analysts’ estimates. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rallied the most since January 2012 after saying quarterly profit tripled and impairments fell. Deutsche Telekom AG, which owns two-thirds of T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS), added 1.1 percent as people familiar with the matter said Sprint Corp. may bid for the American mobile-phone operator. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.2 percent to 337.76 at the close of trading.
  • Iron Ore Shipments From Port Hedland to China at Record. Iron ore exports to China from Australia’s Port Hedland surged to a record in April as stockpiles in the biggest buyer reached an all-time high. Shipments from the world’s largest bulk export terminal totaled 28.9 million metric tons last month compared with 27 million tons in March and 19.3 million tons a year earlier, data on the port authority’s website show. Total exports were also a record 34.8 million tons last month, up from 34.4 million tons in March and 26 million tons in April 2013, the data show. Stockpiles at ports in China rose 1.3 percent to a record 105.19 million tons in the week ended April 25 and have climbed 29 percent this year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Iron ore entered a bear market in March and has lost 21 percent this year on prospects for increased global supply.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Ukraine Launches Offensive to Regain Slovyansk. Operation Meets Resistance From Militants Who Shoot Down Two Helicopters. Ukraine launched an assault Friday to regain control of the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Slovyansk, meeting stiff resistance from militants who shot down two helicopters in the most serious fighting since Kiev began losing control near Russia's border. Two Ukrainian soldiers and many militants were killed, Ukraine's acting president said. 
Fox News: 
  • Boehner announces special committee on Benghazi, Kerry subpoenaed. House Republicans moved on two fronts Friday to dig for answers on Benghazi, with Speaker John Boehner announcing a special committee to investigate and a key panel subpoenaing Secretary of State John Kerry to testify. In a significant shift, Boehner announced that the House will vote on establishing a select committee to investigate, on the heels of newly released emails that raised additional questions about the White House's response. Top Republicans claimed those emails should have been released to Congress months ago, and Boehner signaled those concerns prompted him to rethink the need for a select committee.
MarketWatch:
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge: 
ValueWalk: 
Business Insider:
Real Clear Politics:
Reuters: 
  • Brazil manufacturing sector shrinks in April -PMI. Brazil's manufacturing activity shrank in April, ending a four-month run of meager expansion, as new orders and output cooled, a private survey showed on Friday. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for the Brazilian manufacturing sector fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.3 in April from 50.6 in March. The 50 mark separates contraction from expansion.
Telegraph:
  • Chinese anatomy of a property boom on its last legs. (graph) So now we know what China’s biggest property developer really thinks about the Chinese housing boom. A leaked recording of dinner speech by Vanke Group’s vice-chairman Mao Daqing more or less confirms what the bears have been saying for months. It is a dangerous bubble, and already deflating.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.02%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -2.24% 2) Biotech -1.50% 3) Social Media -1.06%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • EQM, NGVC, SQI, AVD, QLGC, CVD, INVN, BCOR, BYI, AHS, EHTH, VCRA, SBSI, MTW, PCYC, LNKD, SWIR, SGEN, CBM, MSG, IMPV, FI, TTEK, LAYN, EXPE, NWL, AAWW, SKX, TEG, YELP, EPAY, BMRN, ATEN, MSG, KEYW, CBM and ACOR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HTZ 2) AKAM 3) PHM 4) DOW 5) X
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LNKD 2) YELP 3) SO 4) TTEK 5) AVP
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.47%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +2.27% 2) Gold & Silver +1.86% 3) Steel +1.68%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WPRT, RBS, CALD, NTRI, ELLI, HOT, MXWL, DGI, TPX, SBAC, WYNN, ACHC, CTCT, MHK, CTB, SPR, FLT and MKTO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MTW 2) FITB 3) INVN 4) EQT 5) KCG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BK 2) WYNN 3) ANR 4) KORS 5) CI
Charts: