Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.52%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.23% 2) Hospitals +2.04% 3) Gaming +.96%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CMRX, TIF, DISCK, QIWI, TSL, MXWL, EV and GBX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARCP 2) END 3) LGF 4) MNKD 5) PETM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TIF 2) NFLX 3) TJX 4) AMZN 5) MSFT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Russian Army Starts Withdrawing as Medvedev Sees Cold War. Russia said its troops are pulling back from Ukraine’s border, as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned the U.S. and the European Union they risk provoking a new Cold War. Ukraine and the U.S. said they haven’t yet seen signs of the pullback reported by Russian state TV, which said yesterday that soldiers in three Russian regions bordering Ukraine have started to return to their bases. 

• Japan Trade Deficit Shrinks as Tax Increase Crimps Imports. Japan’s trade deficit shrank in April as imports rose the least in 16 months after the first sales-tax increase in 17 years crimped consumer spending. Inbound shipments rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. Exports (JNTBEXPY) increased 5.1 percent, leaving a deficit of 808.9 billion yen ($8 billion), down 7.8 percent from a year earlier.

• U.S. Said to Seek More than $5 Billion in BNP Settlement. U.S. authorities are seeking more than $5 billion from BNP Paribas SA (BNP) to settle federal and state investigations into the lender’s dealings with sanctioned countries including Sudan and Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter. The amount sought to resolve the investigation has escalated and now far exceeds the $2.6 billion that Credit Suisse AG (CSGN) agreed to pay in a settlement with the U.S. for helping Americans evade taxes. Discussions are continuing and the final number could change, the person said.

• Asia Stocks Fall Fourth Day Before Bank of Japan Decision. Asian stocks fell for a fourth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest losing streak since January, as the yen strengthened ahead of a Bank of Japan decision on monetary policy today. Raw-material suppliers led declines on the regional gauge, with BHP Billiton Ltd. losing 1.8 percent in Sydney after benchmark prices for iron-ore delivered to China’s Tianjin port dropped to the lowest since 2012. Mazda Motor Corp. fell 2.6 percent as the yen traded near its strongest level in more than three months. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662) led energy suppliers higher, jumping 6.3 percent, after its stock rating was raised by SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent to 138.46 as of 9:41 a.m. in Hong Kong, with nine of its 10 industry groups declining.

• BlackRock’s Fink Says Housing Structure More Unsound Now. BlackRock Inc. (BLK)’s Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink said the U.S. housing market is “structurally more unsound” today than before the financial crisis because it depends more on government-backed mortgage companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “We’re more dependent on Fannie and Freddie than we were before the crisis,” Fink said today at a conference held by the Investment Company Institute in Washington, noting that he was one of the first Freddie Mac bond traders on Wall Street. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Debt Rises in Leveraged Buyouts Despite Warnings. Regulators Urge Banks to Avoid Financing High Levels of Debt. Wall Street banks are financing more private-equity takeovers with high levels of debt, despite warnings by regulators to reduce the amount of risky loans they make. The Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency last year issued guidance urging banks to avoid financing leveraged buyouts in most industries that would put debt on a company of more than six times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda. The Fed and the OCC also told banks to limit borrowing... 

• Investor Demand High as Fannie Mae Sets Price Range for Risky Mortgage Securities. Investors Say Fannie Lowers Yields on Offering From Initial Discussions. The latest place where investors are taking on more risk in exchange for apparently meager returns: the U.S. housing market. Bond buyers on Tuesday jockeyed to get a piece of $1.6 billion of riskier Fannie Mae securities, enabling the government-backed mortgage company to twice cut the yields it offered on the debt. The offering is Fannie's third sale of so-called risk-sharing certificates that enlist investors to pay for...
  

• After Martial Law Declaration, Thailand Waits for General's Next Move. A day after Thailand's military imposed nationwide martial law, the country faced uncertainty over whether a coup d'état was imminent or if its civilian leaders could broker a deal to end months of bitter and often violent feuding. The military urged calm and insisted the declaration—made under a 100-year-old constitutional decree that gives the army sweeping powers to maintain order—wasn't a coup. No curfew was imposed, and residents were encouraged to go about business as usual. Some Thais were seen taking... 

Fox News: 

• Pentagon prepares for possible evacuation of US personnel from Libya, amid upheaval. The Obama administration is moving military assets into place in preparation for a possible evacuation of Americans from Libya, as a political crisis threatens to touch off a new wave of violence in the unstable country. Officials say no decision has been made on whether to move U.S. personnel, particularly those at the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli, out of Libya. But the U.S. military is preparing in case the State Department makes the call.

• McConnell beats Tea Party challenge to win primary, now faces tough November contest.

Barron's:

• Salesforce(CRM) Rising: FYQ1 Beats, Q2 Rev View, Year View Beat.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Charles Plosser thinks there’s a ticking time bomb at the Fed. The way Charles Plosser sees it, the Federal Reserve is sitting on a ticking time bomb that could severely damage the economy unless the central bank reacts quickly to defuse the looming threat.

CNBC:

• European bonds signaling trouble? The quick move higher in the yields of Europe's weakest sovereigns from historic lows may be just the beginning and on the edges it could start to affect other low-rated credits where investors have hunted for yield—such as U.S. junk bonds.

• Flash crash could come at any time: Bill Fleckenstein. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• The Birth Of Eurasia - Russia & China Do Pipelineistan.

• Socialist-Motion Trainwreck: France Mistakenly Orders 2,000 Trains Which Are Too Wide For Its Platforms.

• Credit Mania Update – The Chase for CCC-Rated Bonds. (graph)

• Jobless Claims And The Issue Of "Full Employment". (graph) 
• Putin's Crimea Bonus: Vast Oil And Gas Fields.

ValueWalk: 

• Dudley: Some Pockets In Financial Markets “Are Concerning”. Dudley on whether there are any bubbles in the financial markets: “Well we look at the financial issues all the time to asset whether the current level interest rates is going to generate excesses in financial markets. Excesses that we need to be concerned about in terms of financial stability. I would say there are pockets that are concerning. Leverage loan markets for example are quite frothy.

Business Insider:

• Cisco(CSCO) CEO: 'Brutal' Times Are Coming For The Tech Industry. Cisco CEO and walking global economic barometer John Chambers believes that the rapid pace of change in the technology industry is going to create a bloodbath for the major tech players, and every other company on the planet.

• FBI Director Says He's Having Trouble Recruiting Techies Because They're All Stoners. 

• Google(GOOG) Overtakes Apple(AAPL) As The World's Most Valuable Brand.

• South Korean Ships Fire Warning Shots At North Korean Vessels Near The DMZ.

Reuters:

• Bombings kill at least 118 in central Nigerian city of Jos. Back-to-back bomb blasts killed at least 118 people and wounded 45 in the crowded business district of the central Nigerian city of Jos on Tuesday, emergency services said, in an attack that appeared to bear the hallmarks of the Boko Haram insurgents. 

• Hedge fund exit requests rise to five month high in May. Demand to pull out money from hedge funds rose to five month high in May as investors looked to adjust their portfolios ahead of the mid-year point.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Financial Times: 

• Hedge funds wrongfooted by choppy markets. It was meant to be the year of the hedge fund. After near indiscriminate gains for shares in 2013, the choppier markets of this year were hailed as the perfect conditions for the specialist and skilled active fund manager. It has not turned out that way.

• China property slowdown spells trouble for Asia bonds. Investing in Chinese developers becoming iffy. In May Central China Real Estate, one of the Chinese mainland’s many property developers, proposed issuing Singapore dollar-denominated notes, to refinance a convertible bond due in August.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.75 +2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.10%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BAH)/.31

• (PETM)/1.01

• (TIF)/.78

• (LOW)/.60

• (HRL)/.56

• (TGT)/.71

• (AEO)/.00

• (EV)/.55

• (NTAP)/.79

• (LB)/.52

• (SNPS)/.60

• (SMTC)/.30

• (WSM)/.44

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +243,750 barrels versus a +947,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +400,000 barrels versus a -772,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -306,250 barrels versus a -1,124,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.41% versus a -1.4% decline the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Minutes from April 29-30 Meeting.

Upcoming Splits

• (AWH) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's George speaking, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, BoJ decision, BoE minutes, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, BMO Capital Farm to Market Conference, (MXIM) investor day, (AVY) investor meeting, (BA) investor conference, (FLEX) analyst day and the (AWI) investor day could impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Surging Eurozone Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.08 +5.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.75 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.18 +.84%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.16 +3.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -12.84%

• Total Put/Call .91 +16.67%

• NYSE Arms 1.92 +81.54% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.43 +2.10%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.70 +2.96%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 38.84 +4.31%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.27 +1.77%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 269.80 +2.25%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 358.99 unch.
• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 unch.

• TED Spread 20.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 218.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $97.50/Metric Tonne -1.02%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.30 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.30 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.77%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -3.10% 2) Gaming -2.20% 3) Coal -1.92%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• DKS, URBN, TJX, SPLS, HGR, NTLS, DCI, TTEC, CMRX, CAB, VASC, BGFV, ARMH, PWRD, ICPT, SFL, DTV, VOD, VSI, SFM, NMBL, COO, HTH, ROST, PETM, MOH, CRCM and ATK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TIF 2) HD 3) TGT 4) XME 5) X
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DKS 2) GM 3) SPLS 4) JCP 5) ICPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.50%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +.68% 2) Internet +.34% 3) Utilities -.21%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARX, OPHT, SSLT, CLVS and FEYE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) INO 2) NI 3) NEE 4) SPLS 5) DKS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AAPL 2) CDNS 3) HCA 4) GOOG 5) DOW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Pop-Up Army Shows How Splintering Ukraine Girds for War. A training grenade arcs toward a group of nine men practicing combat with trench shovels. This is the Ukrainian government’s volunteer civilian army, getting a crash combat course as the country braces for war. “I’m sure they won’t lay down their guns during the first fight,” Colonel Volodymyr Gornik, who lobbed the projectile, said at the base outside Kiev, the capital. “They won’t be cannon fodder.” 

• Russia Close to $400 Billion Gas Pipeline Deal in Pivot to China. Russia is close to signing a decades-long contract to supply natural gas to China at a price that would value the deal at about $400 billion, according to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev’s boss Vladimir Putin arrives in Shanghai today to try and complete an agreement after more than 10 years of talks. The stumbling block has been price, but with Putin facing trade and financial sanctions from the U.S. and European Union after he annexed Crimea from Ukraine, a deal is seen as probable. “It’s time we reached an agreement with the Chinese on this issue,” Medvedev said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Moscow yesterday. “It is very likely that there will be a contract, which means long-term contracts.”

• China’s Casino-to-Internet Bust Deepens as ChiNext Sinks. Chinese stock investors are running out of places to hide. First, it was the Macau casinos, which began tumbling in January after an average 217 percent rally in the previous two years. Then came the selloff in Internet shares, which dragged down Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Sina Corp. more than 15 percent since March. Small-cap stocks were the latest to buckle, with the ChiNext Index entering a bear market last week. The few pockets of strength in the $3.2 trillion stock market are disappearing as China’s weakening economy reduces investor appetite for even the fastest-growing companies. All 10 industry groups in the CSI 300 Index of mainland-traded shares have retreated this year while just 1 percent of the 170 Chinese stock funds tracked by Bloomberg recorded gains, versus more than 70 percent last year. 

• China Plans Additional 100 IPOs in Second Half of 2014. China plans to have about 100 initial public offerings from June through the end of this year as the government pushes for development in capital markets. The stock sales will be spread over time to ensure there are a similar number each month, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Xiao Gang said in a statement posted on the regulator’s website yesterday. 

• Irish Jump Into Real Estate Game as Bubble Echoes Grow. Charles O’Rourke reckons it’s different this time as he jumps into the real estate game. The 81-year-old retiree says he took “massive” losses on his bank stocks when Ireland’s financial system melted down in 2008. Now he’s joined billionaires George Soros and John Paulson in acquiring shares in one of the real estate investment trusts buying property in the Irish capital, Dublin.

• Credit Suisse Agrees to Plead Guilty in Tax Case Says US. Credit Suisse AG representatives appeared in a Virginia federal court to plead guilty on behalf of the Swiss firm to helping Americans cheat on their taxes, making it the first bank in more than a decade to admit to a crime in the U.S. The prosecution marks a tougher stance by the Justice Department, which has faced criticism that it avoided pursuing large banks after the 2008 financial crisis because of the potential economic fallout. U.S. prosecutor Mark Lytle today said the bank would enter a plea.

• Asian Stocks Swing After U.S. Shares Gain on Low Volumes. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as information technology companies rose and industrial shares fell, after U.S. equities increased amid low volume as Internet and small-cap shares extended a rebound. Yahoo Japan Corp. soared 14 percent as brokerages raised its rating after the nation’s largest Internet portal canceled plans to acquire eAccess Ltd. from SoftBank Corp. Ryman Healthcare Ltd., aNew Zealand healthcare provider, dropped 2 percent. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. rose 4.3 percent in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 139.32 as of 9:29 a.m. in Tokyo after falling 0.8 percent over the past two days. 

Wall Street Journal: 

• Putin Again Orders Troops at Ukraine Border to Return to Bases. NATO, U.S. Officials Say They See No Evidence Yet of Pullback. President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops involved in exercises near the Ukrainian border to return to base—again—and called anew on Monday for Ukraine's government to withdraw its military from the restive east. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Obama administration were skeptical, however, saying they have yet to see evidence of any drawdown of Russian troops despite a series of similar claims from the Kremlin.

• Worries of a Bank-Loan-ETF Exodus Mount. Investors have been pulling money out of exchange-traded funds backed by bank loans, once again raising concerns about the ability of lightly traded financial markets to handle a big exodus from ETFs. Leveraged-loan ETFs last month had three consecutive weekly net withdrawals, together valued at $107.5 million, marking the only such streak of investors pulling money out of the group since the first bank-loan ETF was launched in 2011,... 

• J.P. Morgan's(JPM) Dimon Aims to Stay Put. CEO Tells Group of Shareholders, 'I'm Going Nowhere.

Zero Hedge:

• Thailand Army Declares Martial Law.

• What Would Warren Do? (video)

• 'Smoking Gun' From The Federal Reserve's Murder Of The Middle Class. (graph)

• GoPro Is Going Public: It Hopes You Don't Focus On The Following Chart.

• Thai Stocks Tumble As Army Censors Media To "Avoid Provoking Unrest".

Business Insider:

• WikiLeaks Threatens To Reveal Information That Glenn Greenwald Says Could Lead To 'Deaths'.

Reuters:

• Fed's super-easy policies pose risks, officials say. The Federal Reserve's super-easy policies, if pursued for too long, could have adverse consequences in the long run, two top Fed officials said on Monday, although the biggest risk is not runaway inflation. Instead, San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters after participating in a monetary policy conference at the George W. Bush Institute in Dallas, one major risk is that low rates for too long could push asset prices too high, or encourage investors to take on too much risk.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

MNI:

• China's Trade Outlook Remains Severe, Mofcom Official Says. External demand is still weak with the recovery in developed economies remaining unstable and demand from emerging economies shrinking, citing Zhang Ji, the head of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce. It would be an arduous job for China to meet its 7.5% full-year trade growth target, Zhang said.

Australian Financial Review:

• Australia's AAA Rating May Be Reviewed Without More Cuts. S&P sovereign analyst Craig Michaels cited as saying that the ratings agency is "looking to see the government improve budget performance over the next few years."

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.75 +.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DCI)/.47

• (DKS)/.53

• (TRB)/.68

• (MDT)/1.12

• (TJX)/.67

• (ADI)/.56

• (TDW)/.62

• (INTU)/3.50

• (CRM)/.10

• (HD)/.99

• (RRGB)/.72

• (SPLS)/.21

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (AWH) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Fischer nomination vote in Senate, UK inflation data, weekly US retail sales reports, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, (CSCO) investor day, (WFC) investor day and the (ARMH) investor day could impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.