Friday, June 20, 2014

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine Declares Cease-Fire After U.S. Expands Sanctions. Ukraine announced a week-long unilateral cease-fire in its easternmost regions after the U.S. imposed sanctions on people linked to the insurgency and accused Russia of providing new military aid to separatists. Ukraine called on all fighters to lay down arms, halting the government offensive against rebels until June 27, the Interior Ministry in Kiev said in a website statement, citing President Petro Poroshenko. “The days ahead will be very decisive for what we can decide” at the summit on June 26-27, Merkel told reporters in Berlin. “We expect Russia to respond in a positive and constructive way.” While Germany wants to see a cease-fire, “there is planning” for other outcomes as well, she said
  • Top Shiite Cleric Adds to U.S. Pressure on Iraqi Leaders. Iraq’s top Shiite cleric added to U.S. pressure on Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his political allies to form a new government that can command support across sectarian lines. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who played a key role in calming sectarian tensions in previous years, today called for the creation of a new “effective” government. 
  • U.S. Investors in China’s Internet Companies Face Risks. U.S. shareholders face “major risks” from investing in Chinese Internet companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. that use a variable interest entity, according to a U.S. congressional commission report. Risks are associated with VIEs because the structures create holding companies to link foreign investors to Chinese firms via a set of complex legal contracts, according to the June 18 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. There is a “high probability” Chinese courts will not uphold those contracts, the report said.
  • China Property Failures Seen as $33 Billion in Trusts Due. Chinese property trusts face record repayments next year as the real-estate market cools, fueling speculation among bond funds that more developers will collapse. The trusts, which channel money from wealthy individuals to smaller builders that have trouble obtaining financing elsewhere, must repay 203.5 billion yuan ($32.7 billion) in 2015, according to Use Trust, a Chinese research firm. That’s almost double the 109 billion yuan due this year. New issuance of the products slumped to 40.7 billion yuan this quarter, the least in more than two years, Use Trust data show. 
  • WTI Advances for Second Day, Narrowing Discount to Brent. Brent for August settlement slipped 42 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $114.64 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1:50 p.m. in New York. It climbed to $115.06 yesterday, the highest close since Sept.
  • ABA’s Keating Says Regulations Throttling Small Banks. Excessive regulation is strangling U.S. community banks, which have closed at the rate of about one per business day since the 2008 financial crisis, said Frank Keating, head of the American Bankers Association. Community banks spend about 15 percent of revenue on compliance even though they weren’t responsible for the credit crisis that spurred new regulations including higher capital requirements, said Keating, the Washington-based trade group’s chief executive officer.
  • Gold Options Signal More Gains as Yellen Shakes Up Market. Janet Yellen is breathing life back into the gold market. Trading in bullion options show the biggest rally in nine months has more to run after some contracts betting on higher prices surged by the most since 2012 yesterday. Fed Chair Yellen’s outlook for low U.S. interest rates is bringing investors back to gold after a measure of volatility sank to the lowest since 2010 earlier this week.
  • Marijuana Considered for Looser Restrictions by U.S. FDA. U.S. regulators are studying whether restrictions on marijuana should be eased, a step toward decriminalizing the drug at the federal level.
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News:
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider: 
Washington Examiner:
World Steel Association:
Reuters:
Telegraph: 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.10%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.21% 2) Social Media -1.15% 3) Homebuilders -.84%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • EXL, KND, EMES, TRGP, NGLS, COH, SWHC, ORCL, PIR, BECN, ITC, DRI, TIBX, TCP, PSB, TOUR, OC, CAG, AMKR, FBHS, DB, REGN, COV, DL, JOBS, CBS, WFM, SAH, OLED and DGI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AMD 2) HLT 3) MBI 4) ORCL 5) BBBY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DRI 2) CVLT 3) HLF 4) PBR 5) TIBX 
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.26%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.59% 2) Biotech +1.17% 3) Drugs +.89%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SHPG, KMX, IDTI, ALKS, BLUE, KS and XONE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SO 2) SIRI 3) EMR 4) BMRN 5) OPK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KMX 2) AAPL 3) BBRY 4) HOG 5) TAP
Charts:

Friday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (KMX)/.66
  • (DRI)/.94
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Canadian CPI could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Utility/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.59 -.19%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.77 +.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.93 -2.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.43 -1.35%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -31.34%
  • Total Put/Call .65 -14.47%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 +70.05% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.25 -1.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.81 -6.75%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.78 -1.21%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.98 -.77%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 246.23 +1.04%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 308.11 -.52%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.50 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 217.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $90.70/Metric Tonne +.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.20 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.70 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +29 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Obama Sending 300 Advisers to Help Iraqi Military Battle ISIL. President Barack Obama said he’s sending as many as 300 U.S. military advisers to assist the Iraqi army battle an insurgency and is prepared to take additional “targeted, precise” action if necessary. “American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq,” Obama said after meeting with his national security team at the White House. The advisers will work with the Iraqi army to coordinate intelligence and training.
  • China’s Stocks Post Biggest Loss in Seven Weeks Over IPOs. China’s stocks fell, capping the benchmark index’s biggest loss in seven weeks, amid concerns new share sales will divert funds from existing shares and a property slowdown will hurt economic growth. Yonyou Software Co. and Neusoft Corp. (600718) plunged more than 7 percent as a gauge of technology companies slumped the most among 10 industry groups. Leshi Internet Information & Technology Co., the biggest company in the ChiNext index, posted its steepest loss in two months. China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. led a retreat for property developers. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 1.6 percent to 2,023.74 at the close, the steepest loss since April 28.
  • European Stocks Jump as Fed Signals Support Amid Recovery. European stocks rose the most in more than a week after the Federal Reserve repeated its pledge to leave interest rates near their record low and said the world’s largest economy should experience sustained growth. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc jumped 8.1 percent after saying it will buy back 1 billion pounds ($1.7 billion) of its own shares. Man Group Plc rallied 6 percent after agreeing to buy Numeric Holdings LLC. Electricite de France SA sank 7.7 percent after the French energy minister said tariffs won’t rise in August. Mediaset Espana Comunicacion SA slipped 3.2 percent after Chile eliminated Spain from the World Cup. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.6 percent to 348.15 at the close of trading.
  • Fighting the IRS Just Got Harder.
  • Gold Surges as Global Stocks Gain, Dollar Weakens on Fed. Gold futures rallied 3.2 percent and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped to its lowest level in almost a month.
  • Currency Probe Widens as U.S. Said to Target Markups. U.S. prosecutors are broadening their investigation of the foreign-exchange industry as they question salespeople at the world’s biggest banks on their practices, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The Department of Justice has been asking bankers and clients how much sales teams charge customers to exchange currency, the people said, asking not to be identified because the interviews are private. The move is the first indication prosecutors are probing sales practices.
Wall Street Journal
MarketWatch.com: 
CNBC:
ZeroHedge: 
Business Insider:
meps: