Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on diminished Ukraine-Russia tensions, less emerging markets/European debt angst, technical buying, lower energy prices/interest rates and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,931.59 +.34%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,931.59 +.34%

• DJIA 16,533.90 +.37%

• NASDAQ 4,370.89 +.42%

• Russell 2000 1,131.35 +1.48%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.46 .81%

• Wilshire 5000 20,163.70 +.42%

• Russell 1000 Growth 897.88 +.42%

• Russell 1000 Value 974.14 +.26%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 451.20 +.96%

• Solactive US Cyclical 132.41 +.46%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 957.19 -.09%

• Transports 8,092.47 -.35%

• Utilities 542.69 +.37%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.26 -2.83%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.41 -1.05%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,155.22 -1.43%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 968.41 +.11%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 222,796 -.49%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -299 -6

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.62 -19.94%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 347,204 -4.81%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,587,187 -2.56%

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -13.71%

• OEX Put/Call 1.24 +67.57%

• ISE Sentiment 81.0 +88.37%

• NYSE Arms .63 -30.77%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.77 -7.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.69 -4.39%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.01 +6.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.01 +4.32%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,181.67 -1.50%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.567 Trillion +.50%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.257 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 30.9 -.7%

• AAII % Bears 38.2 +22.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 292.43 -.02%

• Crude Oil 97.56 -.03%

• Reformulated Gasoline 274.71 +.26%

• Natural Gas 3.97 +4.48%

• Heating Oil 287.34 +.26%

• Gold 1,311.40 +1.32%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 202.94 +.33%

• Copper 318.0 -1.10%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.70 USD/Ton +.53%

• Lumber 344.90 +6.06%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,302.41 +.37%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.8% -30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1680 -1.81%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.24 +.20%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.0 +16.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 +3.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 81.39 +.11%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.83 -.72%

• Yield Curve 198.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.42% -7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.367 Trillion +.07%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.67 +4.91%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 168.0 +1.95%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 39.0 +6.21%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 76.69 +1.79%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 235.61 +12.18%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 97.0 -.69%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 382.71 +5.87%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 270.82 +11.76%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 321.92 +3.98%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.75 +1.25%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.76 +2.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 295.17 +5.25%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 81.50 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.867 Trillion -.33%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,038.50 -.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 293,500 -3,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.14% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 347.0 +1.55%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.2 -.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% +30 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.48/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 765.0 +1.86%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,112.05 +1.42%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,323 +2.08%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +3.7%

• Hospitals +3.4%

• Alt Energy +2.6%

• Retail +2.5%

• Gold & Silver +1.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -2.2% 

• Airlines -2.9%

• Education -3.0%

• Gaming -5.2%

• Oil Tankers -5.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• PIKE, TREX, BYI, IMPV, ELLI, NLS, COHU, LEAF, SSYS, RARE, PERY, QLYS, SPR, SCVL, CNVR, CST, FSLR, JACK, TROX, TIBX, ZU, DRTX, JBT and CBM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (49)

• DISCK, MVNR, AXL, USM, CIR, DW, NSP, GLPW, EXPD, TSLX, BWC, KFRC, BRKR, CTSH, ATHL, EVR, DWRE, SGY, WAG, NCMI, BBG, VSI, OMG, ARRS, RSPP, OAS, ALR, POWL, GMED, CIE, OME, OCN, YRWC, AREX, APEI, CZR, BLMN, CRR, NUS, STAA, IMMR, WWWW, RVNC, COUP, ECOM, SALE, THOR, INSM and FUEL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Utility/Homebuilder Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.75 -5.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.90 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.05 -2.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.14 -2.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -21.28%

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +6.93%

• NYSE Arms .83 -58.01% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.09 -3.74%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.51 -3.13%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 39.0 -2.69%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.59 -.31%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 295.55 -.59%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 321.92 +1.38%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +1.75 basis points

• TED Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 198.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.70/Metric Tonne -.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.0 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 +3.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +180 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.75%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -1.03% 2) Education -.60% 3) Alt Energy -.05%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• POST, HGR, VOLC, RATE, FI, BCOR, MNTX, MED, HIBB, SEM, BPL, BID, NES, MYRG, SLXP, NWSA, JRN, SNN, MASI, PODD, RNF, KND, DEO, FF, KRA, SSP, JRN, CCC, SCTY, CSC, KND, BCOR, BID, HIBB, FF and RATE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BID 2) DXJ 3) EWY 4) XLV 5) SCTY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MCD 2) JCP 3) BID 4) HIBB 5) YELP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.59%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.47% 2) Utilities +1.19% 3) Retail +1.08%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TKMR, AIRM, MELI, MDVN, NVDA, UBNT, SFM, BCRX, LGF, HMSY, GPS, YOKU, RPTP, LEAF, EGOV, WGL, MNST, MCRL, DK, ENOC, RLYP and PDCE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DKS 2) MNST 3) COH 4) TMO 5) UBNT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) NVDA 3) LULU 4) COH 5) GPS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume