Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • EU Skips Wider Russia Sanctions While Targeting Rebels. European Union governments held off on further economic sanctions against the Kremlin for fomenting rebellion in eastern Ukraine, while agreeing to blacklist more pro-Russia separatists there. EU foreign ministers decided to impose additional travel bans and asset freezes in response to the Nov. 2 elections in the rebel-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The names will be released by the end of the month.
  • Disappointment Becomes Norm for Global Growth as Japan Contracts. Group of 20 leaders pledged over the weekend to do everything they can to boost the global recovery. Japan’s descent into a recession is the latest reminder of how elusive that goal is proving to be. Less than 24 hours after heads of state gathering in Brisbane, Australia, agreed to take measures that would boost their economies by a collective $2 trillion by 2018, the Cabinet Office delivered news in Tokyo that Japan’s gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank an annualized 1.6 percent in the three months through September, the second straight contraction.
  • Abe Set to Call Election, Delay Tax Hike Amid Recession. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to call early elections as part of a trio of measures today in a gambit to secure his political future and fortify the “three arrows” of his economic policy after the nation sank into recession. Abe will postpone an unpopular sales tax increase, scheduled for October 2015, for 18 months, people familiar with the discussions said last week. He’ll probably call an early election for Dec. 14, according to people with knowledge of the ruling party strategy. Abe will announce both steps at a press conference today, public broadcaster NHK said, well as ordering new stimulus measures.
  • Beijing Home Prices Drop for First Time in 2 Years on Discounts. Beijing home prices fell for the first time in almost two years as China’s property slowdown deepened, prompting developers to offer discounts to cut inventories. New-home prices dropped in October in 67 cities of 70 tracked by the government from a year earlier, and in 69 from September, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. Prices in Beijing declined 1.3 percent, the first annual decrease since November 2012 and a reversal from the 14.7 percent jump in January from the previous year
  • Lopsided Link Shows Chinese Rejection of Hong Kong Stocks. Chinese investors failed to show up for some of Hong Kong’s foremost companies on the first day of the exchange link with the mainland, confounding the predictions of Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc
  • China Stocks Drop for Fourth Day as Data Shows Home-Price Slump. Chinese stocks dropped, with the benchmark index declining for a fourth day, as falling home prices added to concerns that an economic slowdown will deepen and enthusiasm toward an exchange link with Hong Kong faded. Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048) and China State Construction Engineering Corp. slumped at least 1.8 percent. New-home prices decreased in all but one city monitored by the government last month as developers offered discounts to cut inventories. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. slid 2.8 percent, extending yesterday’s 4.5 percent drop, as mainland investors used less than 4 percent of their 10.5 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) quota in Hong Kong this morning. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.4 percent to 2,463.76 at the noon-time break, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 1 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Rise as Abe Poised to Add Stimulus, Call Election. Asian stocks rose as investors await a decision by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to put off a sales-tax increase, add stimulus and call an election, after data yesterday showed the economy entered recession. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.4 percent to 140.29 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, after slumping by the most in more than a month yesterday.
  • Goldman Cuts Copper Price Forecast on Rising Dollar, Falling Oil. Copper prices will fall next year as a strengthening U.S. dollar and weaker oil prices push down marginal production costs, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The bank lowered its 2015 price outlook to $6,217 a metric ton from $6,400, analysts including Max Layton said in a report yesterday. Marginal production cost will fall to between $5,600 and $6,300 a ton next year, according to the report.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • President Orders Review of U.S. Hostage Policies. Move Follows Criticism Surrounding Beheading Cases In Syria. The Obama administration is undertaking a review of how it handles cases of U.S. citizens held captive by extremists abroad, according to a letter from a top Pentagon official made public Monday, a move that follows criticism from some relatives of slain Americans.
  • Small Towns Go to Bat for Wall Street Banks. Fed Bid to Limit Banks’ Commodities Activities Imperils Local Gas Contracts, Mayors Argue. A Federal Reserve plan that could stop big banks from owning oil pipelines, metals warehouses and other physical-commodity assets is sounding alarm bells hundreds of miles from Wall Street.
  • Federal Private-Pension Safety Net Running $62 Billion Deficit. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. Report Warns of Problems with Multiemployer Pension Plans. The federal government’s safety-net program for private pensions is running a near $62 billion long-term deficit, largely due to long-standing problems in a type of pension plan that is common in transportation, construction and some other industries, according to a new report. The problems are likely to bankrupt the federal safety-net program for so-called multiemployer pension plans within the next decade, perhaps in the next few...
Fox News:
  • Controversial economist Gruber has earned millions from taxpayers at federal, state levels. (video) “My job was just to see if the numbers added up,” Dr. Jonathan Gruber, the controversial architect of ObamaCare, told PBS two years ago. And add up the numbers did – at least in terms of Gruber’s consulting fees. A Fox News review of state and federal websites, as well as published reports, finds the MIT economist and his firm have secured millions in federal and state contracts stretching back over the last fifteen years.
CNBC:
  • Why a Santa rally might not be in the cards. (video) Many traders expect stocks to rally into the year-end, but the current complacency may be signaling that a late year Santa rally is not in the cards. "We're a little concerned by the fact that investors' memories have become so short that volatility has just completely collapsed to multiyear lows a month away from an incredibly frightening roller-coaster ride. The bearish readings have slipped," said Julian Emanuel, equity strategist at UBS.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rateTripAdvisor profit sags as costs jump; shares slid
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.75 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DKS)/.41
  • (HD)/1.13
  • (MDT)/.96
  • (TJX)/.85
  • (JACK)/.53
  • (PETM)/.95
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand for October is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in September.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in September.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for November is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.0 in October..
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, UK CPI report, Net Long-Term TIC Flows for September, US weekly retail sales reports, Stifel Healthcare Conference, UBS Tech Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, (NOV) analyst day, (SYNA) investor meeting and the (ZTS) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.05 +5.56%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.44 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.12 -.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.54 -4.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -30.57%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -7.78%
  • NYSE Arms .85 +3.46% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.34 +1.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.83 -.58%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.51 +.32%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.25 +.97%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 288.32 +2.35%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.75 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 183.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $75.08/Metric Tonne -.52%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.40 -7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.0 +2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.90 +2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 -3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +226 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Putin Warns He Won’t Let Ukraine Defeat Eastern Rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he won’t allow rebels in eastern Ukraine to be defeated by government forces as European Union ministers met to consider imposing more sanctions on the separatists. “You want the Ukrainian central authorities to annihilate everyone there, all of their political foes and opponents,” Putin said in an interview yesterday with Germany’s ARD television. “Is that what you want? We certainly don’t. And we won’t let it happen.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday the EU will keep its economic sanctions on Russia “for as long as they are needed.” EU foreign ministers convened today in Brussels to discuss adding to sanctions that have limited access to capital markets for some Russian banks and companies and blacklisted officials involved in the conflict. New measures will likely target pro-Russian separatist leaders, the EU said.
  • EU Weighs More Russian Sanctions Amid Ukraine Cease-Fire. European Union governments are meeting to consider triggering tougher sanctions against Russia as neighboring Finland pressed the Kremlin to do more to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The talks in Brussels among the 28 member nations follow the EU’s abrupt decision this week to put on hold for at least a “few days” a second package of economic penalties against Russia over its encroachment in Ukraine. The delay offered more time to assess the viability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s truce in Ukraine without risking further trade retaliation by Russia.
  • Cameron Sees ‘Red Warning Lights’ Flashing on Global Economy. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said he can see “red warning lights” flashing “on the dashboard of the global economy,” arguing that trade deals and continued spending restraint are essential to growth. In an article for today’s Guardian newspaper, the premier listed a possible recession in the euro area, a slowdown in emerging markets, the Ebola outbreak and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine as “adding a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty.”
  • Recession Gloom Trumps Tax Delay Optimism in Japanese Stocks. Stock investors weighing the pros and cons of a surprise contraction in Japan’s economy decided it’s a reason to sell. Bulls see the 1.6 percent annualized slide in gross domestic product as raising the chances Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will push back a sales-tax increase that could further hurt growth. Bears say it also sends the world’s third-largest economy into recession and calls into question the success of Abe’s policies to revive Japan. Those looking on the bright side are being drowned out today: the Topix index plunged 2.5 percent, the most in six weeks. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 3 percent. 
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Drop as China’s New Equity Link. Emerging-market stocks fell for a third day as technology companies retreated and Chinese shares in Hong Kong tumbled on the first day of the city’s exchange link with Shanghai. Bank of China Ltd. led a 1.9 percent decline in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) after mainland investors left more than 80 percent of an equity-buying quota for Hong Kong shares unfilled. The Ibovespa declined as the Brazilian state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA retreated to the lowest level since March. Rupiah forwards increased after Indonesian President Joko Widodo raised subsidized fuel prices. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.5 percent to 986 at 10:24 a.m. in New York.
ZeroHedge:
AFP:
  • Ukraine Minister Urges EU to Send 'Clear Message' to Russia. EU should speak collectively to Russia on Ukraine, be ready to send "clear message" that it will impose more sanctions if necessary, citing interview with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
Bild:
  • Poroshenko Says Ukraine 'Most Dangerous Place on Earth'. The situation in Ukraine is more dangerous than the threat by Islamic State, citing President Petro Prorshenko. In Ukraine there are currently thousands of Russian soldiers, hundreds of tanks, heavy artillery, he said. One of the world's largest armies is threatening Ukraine and Europe, Poroshenko said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.73%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Social Media -2.65% 2) Alt Energy -1.55% 3) Gaming -1.12%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • HAL, WLH, LGIH, DWA, CMGE, LXFT, ZEN, SYKE, TUBE, MCEP, JD, AAXJ, HGR, HP, CRUS, CSH, CWEI, FUEL, COUP, WHZ, CAF, CSLT, EIGI, JACK, WTS, INO and DNR
  • 1) BEAV 2) HES 3) HIG 4) DKS 5) SPLS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HAL 2) LNKD 3) SHLD 4) JACK 5) DNR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.13%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +1.82% 2) HMOs +1.39% 3) Utilities +.69%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BHI, ABGB, AGN, CLDX, EXH, ESPR, Z, HAS, TSN and TRLA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GME 2) CLDX 3) VRX 4) DATA 5) BHI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TSN  2) VRX 3) CLDX 4) AGN 5) BHI
Charts:

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Putin Leaves G-20 Summit Early as Ukraine Dominates Talks. President Vladimir Putin left the Group of 20 summit in Australia early so he can sleep on the long flight home, as fellow leaders berated Russia over the conflict in Ukraine and warned of possible further sanctions. Putin, who was told by European leaders to stop arming rebels, said before jetting off from Brisbane he needed 4 to 5 hours of sleep so he could get to work early tomorrow morning. “We have to fly from here to Vladivostok 9 hours and then from Vladivostok to Moscow, another 9 hours,” Putin told reporters in Brisbane. “There are no other considerations.”
  • Putin Rebukes Ukraine for Cutting Links With East Regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to his isolation at a global summit over his role in fomenting fighting in Ukraine by chastising authorities in Kiev. Putin said his counterpart in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, made a “big mistake” by moving to sever banking services and pull out state companies from two breakaway regions. He spoke after Group of 20 leaders berated Russia over the conflict at a summit in Brisbane, Australia. “Why are the authorities in Kiev now cutting off these regions with their own hands?” Putin told reporters. “I do not understand this. Or rather, I understand that they want to save money, but this is not the right occasion and the right time to do this.”
  • China Bad Loans Jump Most Since 2005 as Economy Cools. China’s bad loans jumped by the most since 2005 in the third quarter, fueling concern that a cooling economy will be further weakened as banks limit lending to avoid credit risks. Nonperforming loans rose 72.5 billion yuan ($11.8 billion) from the previous quarter to 766.9 billion yuan, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Nov. 15. Soured credit accounted for 1.16 percent of lending, up from 1.08 percent three months earlier. China is heading for the weakest economic expansion since 1990, and Communist Party leaders have discussed lowering the nation’s growth target for 2015, according to a person with knowledge of their talks. Bankers’ low appetite for risk and their rising concerns about asset quality are leading to a “sluggish” expansion in credit, according to UBS AG. 
  • Distressed-Loan Buyers Watch Indebted Chinese Developers. Buyers of distressed loans are watching China’s property market closely as debt soars and growth falters. Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bank of America Corp. say they’ll pay more attention to Chinese developers in 2015, having profited from trades in India, Australia, Korea and Indonesia. “There’s been a lot of nervousness around the real estate sector in China,” Andrew Tan, Nomura’s head of secondary trading for loans and special situations in Asia ex-Japan, said by phone Nov. 12. “We’ve seen some selloff in terms of some of the bigger names in the loan space which, typically, you don’t see being offered in the market. They are at high yield, stressed levels.” The number of publicly traded developers with liabilities exceeding equity in China has jumped to 136 out of 334, or more than 40 percent, from 57 in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s leaders are discussing lowering next year’s economic growth target amid falling home prices and rising inventory. 
  • Hong Kong Stocks Fall Most in Month as Link Makes Debut. Hong Kong’s shares fell for the first time in six days as mainland investors left more than 90 percent of a stock-buying quota unfilled on the first day of the city’s exchange link with Shanghai. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. slumped 1.9 percent, paring gains to 40 percent since Premier Li Keqiang unveiled plans for the connect in April. Tencent Holdings Ltd., recommended by banks including Deutsche Bank AG as a link play, fell 1.7 percent. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and Haitong Securities Co. slid more than 1 percent to pace declines for mainland shares trading in Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.9 percent to 23,879.39 at 10:38 a.m., heading for the steepest loss in a month. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) dropped 1.5 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Japan Enters Recession; Bonds Rally. Japanese shares tumbled with U.S. index futures and sovereign bonds rallied after the world’s third-largest economy unexpectedly entered recession. Chinese shares fluctuated and the yuan gained as a link between Hong Kong and Shanghai began, while New Zealand’s dollar advanced. Japan’s Topix index dropped 2.1 percent by 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo as gross domestic product shrank 1.6 percent last quarter from a year before, missing projections for a 2.2 percent gain.
  • Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bets in Fastest Exit This Year: Commodities. Hedge funds extended their fastest exit from gold this year, cutting bullish gold wagers for a third week. The net-long position in New York futures and options fell 14 percent, U.S. government data show. Holdings tumbled 49 percent over three weeks, the most since December. Assets in exchange-traded products backed by the metal dropped to the lowest since 2009, as the World Gold Council said third-quarter global demand was the weakest in almost five years.
  • Pain Trade Ending for Bonds in Poll Saying This Time Bears Right. After the legions of market savants missed out on hundreds of billions of dollars in gains this year anticipating a tumble in bonds, you’d think they would have found another target. You’d be wrong. Given the chance to speculate on declines in only one asset class, 45 percent of investors, traders and analysts in a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll conducted last week picked debt securities of some type as their top choice, more than three times the percentage who selected gold. Among the options, most chose government debt and junk bonds over assets that also included stocks, commodities, currencies and real estate.
  • Obama Would Probably Veto Keystone Bill, Senators Say. President Barack Obama probably would veto a bill authorizing TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s Keystone XL pipeline if the measure gains enough votes to pass the Senate, Democratic lawmakers said. A measure approving construction of the pipeline appears to be at least one vote short of the 60 it would need to pass a procedural vote in the Senate, Majority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, the chamber’s second-ranking Democrat, said today on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. 
  • Fannie-Freddie Regulator’s 3% Down Loans Draw Jeers. Mel Watt, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has set off a political tempest. The cause: 3-percent down mortgages. Watt, who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, unveiled his plan in late October to allow the companies to back mortgages with down payments as low as 3 percent. Republican lawmakers and some industry executives are lambasting the change as an irresponsible opening of the credit floodgates. Watt’s proposal is “an invitation by government for industry to return to slipshod and dangerous practices that caused the mortgage meltdown in the first place and wrecked our economy,” Hensarling said in a statement last week. The initiative “must be rejected.” 
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Another ObamaCare Deception. As Jonathan Gruber knows, the health-care law is a tax machine. The ‘Cadillac’ levy will hit the middle class.
Fox News:
  • Democrat-led Senate set to finally vote this week on Keystone, in odd turn of political events. The Democrat-controlled Senate is expected to take a long-awaited vote Tuesday on approving the Keystone XL oil pipeline -- in an unexpected and politically-charged turn of events for legislation that has languished in the upper chamber for roughly six years. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will allow the vote in part to give Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu an opportunity to vote “yea” and perhaps help her win her runoff election next month with Republican challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy. However, Landrieu’s political future and the fate of the bill remain highly uncertain.
CNBC:
  • Cost of health coverage under Obamacare act set to increase. The Obama administration on Friday unveiled data showing that many Americans with health insurance bought under the Affordable Care Act could face substantial price increases next year -- in some cases as much as 20 percent -- unless they switch plans. The data became available just hours before the health insurance marketplace was to open to buyers seeking insurance for 2015.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • Netanyahu's Warning For The US: Don't Get Tricked By Iran. In addition to warning against military coordination, Netanyahu stressed Iran should not be allowed to keep or grow its uranium enrichment program through the P5+1 nuclear negotiations, which have a deadline of Nov. 24. To bolster his arguments, Netanyahu argued Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has "participated in rallies and chants of 'death to America' and 'death to Israel.'" "This is not a friend, neither in the battle against ISIS nor in the effort — the great effort that should be made to deprive it of the capacity to make nuclear weapons," said Netanyahu. "Don't fall for Iran's ruse. They are not your friend."
New York Times:
  • More Federal Agencies Are Using Undercover Operations. The federal government has significantly expanded undercover operations in recent years, with officers from at least 40 agencies posing as business people, welfare recipients, political protesters and even doctors or ministers to ferret out wrongdoing, records and interviews show.
Reuters:
  • Thousands of Georgians protest against Russia, own government. Tens of thousands of Georgians protested on Saturday against Russia, accusing Moscow of trying to annex the country's breakaway regions and denouncing their own government for not doing more to defend national interests. Critics of the government say it is too reluctant to criticize their powerful neighbor, particularly over the crisis in Ukraine, which stirs uncomfortable memories of their own, disastrous war against Russia in 2008.
Telegraph:
Financial Review:
  • Bank capital at risk from house bust. Stress tests completed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority found that all of the capital protecting the major banks’ $1.25 trillion mortgage books would be wiped out by a “severe downturn” in the housing market.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.75 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.47%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (TSN)/.77
  • (URBN).41
  • (A)/.89
  • (JEC)/.86
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 12.0 versus 6.17 in October.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.0% gain in September.
  • Capacity Utilization for October is estimated at 79.3% versus 79.3% in September.
  • Manufacturing Production for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, China Property Price report and the JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.