Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth worries, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,075.37 +.38%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,075.37 +.38%

• DJIA 17,958.70 +.73%

• NASDAQ 4,780.75 -.23%

• Russell 2000 1,182.43 +.78%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.62 +.55%

• Wilshire 5000 21,532.13 +.32%

• Russell 1000 Growth 970.28 -.25%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,033.05 +.88%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 501.44 -1.0%

• Solactive US Cyclical 143.50 +.79%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,018.0 -.12%

• Transports 9,152.0 -.50%

• Utilities 596.72 -.50%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.58 +1.42%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.88 -2.02%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.11 -.26%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 987.32 +.29%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 230,637 -.20%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -242 -267

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.67 -26.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,996 +4.74%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,439,654 +3.82%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -5.5%

• OEX Put/Call 2.15 -72.44%

• ISE Sentiment 95.0 +28.38%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 -11.29%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.82 -11.32%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.86 -5.35%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.26 +6.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.70 +8.48%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,673.42 +.72%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.688 Trillion +.96%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.044 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 42.7 -18.2%

• AAII % Bears 25.9 +24.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 252.3 -.8%

• Crude Oil 65.84 -.23%

• Reformulated Gasoline 177.34 -2.57%

• Natural Gas 3.80 -6.90%

• Heating Oil 210.78 -4.36%

• Gold 1,190.40 +2.0%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.38 -.28%

• Copper 290.25 +1.33%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 309.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 71.77 USD/Ton +.63%

• Lumber 339.0 +3.48%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,241.78 +.19%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.4% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0496 +21.89%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.02 -.44%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.90 +8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.40 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.60 -3.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 46.0% chance of no change, 54.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17

• US Dollar Index 89.33 +1.26%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.81 +1.01%

• Yield Curve 166.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.31% +15.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.446 Trillion +.01%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.17 +10.29%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.0 +4.73%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.26 -10.14%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.73 -.98%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 273.27 +9.25%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.38 -5.18%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 334.12 -1.94%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 380.49 +21.05%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.48 +1.11%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 22.50 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.50 +.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.01 +.89%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.97 -5.81%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 304.89 +11.45%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.837 Trillion -.15%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,095.50 +.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,000 +5,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% +10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.89% -8 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 347.0 -7.34%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 39.8 -.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.71/gallon -.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,019 -11.62%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,030.07 -1.62%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 220,873 -18.0%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +5.4%

• I-Banks +4.0%

• Education +2.9%

• Disk Drives +2.7%

• Banks +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilders -2.8% 

• Telecom -3.6%

• Social Media -4.0%

• Gaming -6.2%

• Coal -7.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• CODE, CARB, SCVL, OTIC, HE, CY, AVNR, GIII, RCL and UTIW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (31)

• RYAM, CFR, COKE, OVTI, TREC, VPFG, PB, BOKF, BOBE, BNCL, HBHC, CUZ, NSC, WMS, WCN, BKS, PRO, GES, EXPR, PWR, MFRM, WEX, TESO, QDEL, FTK, STRZA, DXPE, VNCE, GBX, HEES and OAS

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -4.36%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.78 +.60%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.73 +2.46%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.33 -.68%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 -15.22%

• Total Put/Call .99 -3.48%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -27.61% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.46 +1.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.38 -4.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.26 -5.11%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.64 -.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 302.04 +2.80%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.48 +.45%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 22.0 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 167.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $71.77/Metric Tonne +.73%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.90 +2.8 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.40 +4.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +109 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.04%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.50% 2) Oil Service -1.35% 3) Utilities -1.33%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GTT, FIVE, BIG, SRF, AEO, CTRP, COO, CAF, GCO, SSL, ANET, FET, IHS, BTE, AMBA, OAS, TRAK, PRTA, TTC, TD, RRC, SVVC, WCC, LM and VNCE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVP 2) EWW 3) MS 4) PSX 5) CNX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIRI 2) ADP 3) IHS 4) AEO 5) DLTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.69%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +1.81% 2) Hospitals +1.71% 3) Airlines +1.61%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FRAN, ZION and THC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VIAB 2) ULTA 3) ETFC 4) SYNA 5) T
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ULTA 2) FSL 3) PSMT 4) NOC 5) DG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume