Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -2.72% 2) Biotech -2.51% 3) Restaurants -1.63%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SWZ, CALA, EDF, ANFI, LINE, KYN, SNAK, CLMT, VIIX, PAH, WLL, GLP, BLUE, KITE, SNY, RDUS, LGCY, AMPH, FMX, FIZZ, KEP, OVAS, BDSI, BPT, VNR, FRGI, VDSI, ADBE, KYN, MEI, WLL, CVRR, BLUE, HCT, AGIO, MEMP, AMRI, ISIS, TGTX, CONN, VNR, LGCY, SGMO and INFI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) EPI 2) CNX 3) XLK 4) XLB 5) KMX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) RMD 2) F 3) GM 4) PBR 5) F
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Oil Service +.36% 2) Software +.11% 3) Retail +.03%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- RVBD, CRUS, RBC, RRC and PETM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CRUS 2) RVBD 3) PETM 4) DRI 5) AVP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) LMT 2) ROK 3) RVBD 4) NDAQ 5) APC
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crimea Ignores Economic Pain to Embrace Putin in New Russia Era.
In the Crimean resort town of Alushta,
realtor Janna Voitenko is doing all she can to welcome the
region’s new overseers. A Russian flag hangs outside her office
and a portrait of President Vladimir Putin is in the entry. It hasn’t
offset an economy that’s dead in the water. She spends her days waiting
for customers to come in. With revenue at her real estate agency down 90
percent, Voitenko is turning to family and friends to help pay the
office rent. Even if anyone did want to buy a flat, she’d have a hard
time finding a listing for them: the property database was only just
reopened after being closed since March, when Ukraine cut access to the
records after Russia annexed Crimea.
- Congress Passes Tougher Russia Sanctions But Gives Obama Leeway. The U.S. Congress has voted for tougher
sanctions to punish Russia for its intervention in Ukraine,
moving beyond steps the White House and European Union have been
willing to take while giving President Barack Obama leeway in
applying most of the provisions.
- Japan’s Manufacturers’ Sentiment Sags in Challenge for Abe. Confidence of Japan’s large manufacturers
declined in the fourth quarter as a recession offset a boost
from a weaker yen, underlining the economic challenges facing
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after his election win. The Tankan’s big manufacturer index slipped to 12 in December from 13 in September, the Bank of Japan said today, lower than the median estimate of 13 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The index is forecast to drop to 9 in March.
- How China’s Interest-Rate Cut Raised Borrowing Costs. What if a central bank cut interest rates and borrowing costs rose? Since
the People’s Bank of China surprised markets with the first benchmark
rate reduction in two years on Nov. 21, the five-year sovereign bond
yield climbed 15 basis points, that for similar AAA corporate notes
surged 37 and AA debt yields jumped 76. While finance companies did
start charging less for mortgages, their funding costs rose as the
one-week Shanghai interbank lending rate added 37 basis points.
- Australia’s Budget Deficit Widens to A$40.4 Billion on Iron Ore.
Australia’s government forecast a wider budget gap this year as falling
iron ore prices reduce revenue and spending cuts are held up by
parliament. The underlying cash deficit will deteriorate to A$40.4
billion ($33.2 billion) in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2015 from a
May estimate of A$29.8 billion, Treasurer Joe Hockey said in the
mid-year economic and fiscal outlook today. The
government forecast unemployment to climb to 6.5 percent in the
second quarter, higher than its May projection of 6.25 percent.
- Petrobras Said to Delay Results on Graft Writedowns.
Disagreement at Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4)’s board led the state-run oil producer at the center of a
corruption scandal to delay releasing full financial results, a
person with direct knowledge of the issue said.
- Qatar Stocks Enter Bear Market as Dubai Erases 2014 Gains on Oil. Shares in Qatar plunged, becoming the fifth
gauge in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council to enter a bear
market, as crude prices dropped to the lowest level since July 2009. Dubai’s
gauge wiped out this year’s advances. Qatar’s QE Index (DSM) lost 5.9
percent to 11,114.43 at the close in Doha, bringing its decline since
September’s record high to 23 percent. Dubai’s DFM General Index (DFMGI)
lost 7.6 percent, the most since October 2008. The shares have
retreated 34 percent this quarter, turning one of the world’s best gains
in 2014 into a
1.4 percent loss. The measure, along with indexes in Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Oman fell into a bear market in the past
three weeks.
- China Stocks Fall on Growth Concern as Financial Companies Slump. China’s stocks fell, led by financial
companies, amid concern the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy is deepening.
China Construction Bank Corp., the second-biggest lender, dropped 2.2
percent after saying it plans to raise as much as 80 billion yuan ($12.9
billion) by selling preferred stock. China Vanke Co. and Poly Real
Estate Co., the largest developers, slumped more than 3 percent after an
economist for the central bank said a slowdown in real estate
investment in 2015 will drag down economic growth. Agile Property
Holdings Ltd. jumped 6.9 percent in Hong Kong after the developer said
its chairman was
released from house arrest in China.
The Shanghai Composite Index decreased 1 percent to
2,908.02 at 9:44 a.m.
- Oil Rout Drags Stocks Lower on Growth Concern; JGBs Gain.
Oil slumped with Asian stocks and commodity-producer currencies as
concern that the global economic outlook is worsening pushed credit risk
higher and drove Japanese bond yields to a 20-month low. West Texas
Intermediate oil sank 0.8 percent to $57.34 a barrel by 11:26 a.m. in
Tokyo, taking losses to more than 46 percent since a June 20 high. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 1.2 percent as a gauge of
emerging-market stocks slid to a 10-month low. Australia’s dollar
weakened 0.3 percent, while Indonesia’s rupiah tumbled 1.1 percent.
- Oil Trades Near $60 a Barrel as OPEC Seen Resisting Cuts. Oil traded near $60 a barrel in London as
the United Arab Emirates said OPEC will refrain from cutting
output even if prices slumped to as low as $40. U.S. benchmark
crude extended its drop from a five-year low.
Brent futures were little changed after dropping 2.9
percent on Dec. 12.
- Oil Slump Blindsides Bulls That Wagered on Rout Ending: Energy. Speculators added to wagers that the slump
in oil futures, the worst since the global recession, is ending.
Prices kept falling anyway. Money managers raised their net-long position in U.S. crude to the highest in two months in the week ended Dec. 9, U.S. government data show. Most of the change came from short holdings contracting to the lowest level since August.
- Australia Sees Iron-Ore at $60 as Commodities Hit Budget.
Australia cut its iron-ore price forecast to about $60 a metric ton as a
commodity slump deepens the budget deficit more than previously
estimated. Prices for the material dropped from the government’s initial
estimate of $92 a ton for the budget, Treasurer Joe Hockey said in a
televised press conference from Sydney today. Australia’s terms of trade
have seen the biggest decline since records were first kept in 1959, he
said. “That more than 30 percent fall in iron ore prices has had
a big impact on the budget, as had a 15 percent fall in thermal
coal and 20 percent fall in wheat prices since the budget,”
Hockey said. The price of iron ore will “remain around $60 a
ton for the foreseeable future,” he said.
- Fossil-Fuel Limits Everywhere Closer After UN Climate Deal. After two
weeks of discussions in Peru organized by the United Nations, the
diplomats agreed on the detail of pledges from all nations on curbing
greenhouse gases. Richer countries gave an assurance they’re on track to
mobilize $100 billion a year in climate aid by 2020. The decision sets the framework for a landmark agreement the UN
intends to adopt in December 2015 in Paris that will rein in the
emissions damaging the atmosphere. It included last- minute concessions
to some of the poorest nations in the world, who are concerned the
system will impose costly and painful changes on their economies.
Wall Street Journal:
- Sydney Cafe Siege Sparks Terror Fears. TV Showing Cafe’s Customers With Hands Up; Islamic Flag Displayed. Armed police shut down central Sydney after a suspected gunman and
possibly accomplices took several people hostage in a cafe and placed an
Islamic flag in the window, sparking concerns a terrorist attack was
under way. Authorities sealed off surrounding streets, evacuated
people from buildings, and suspended rail services following the
incident at the Lindt Chocolate Café in Martin Place, in the heart of
the city’s business district.
- China Steps Up Scrutiny of Margin Trading. Move Comes After Volatility in Chinese Stocks. China’s securities watchdog said it would conduct spot checks on some
brokerages’ margin trading business, signaling regulators’ growing
concerns about the risky investment practice that has contributed to a
recent rally in the country’s stock market.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 +6.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 74.75 +8.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Empire Manufacturing for December is estimated to rise to 12.0 versus 10.16 in November.
9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for November is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.1% decline in October.
- Capacity Utilization for November is estimated to rise to 79.4% versus 78.9% in October.
- Manufacturing Production for November is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in October.
10:00 am EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for December is estimated to rise to 59 versus a reading of 58 in November.
4:00 pm EST
- Net Long-Term TIC Flows for October.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, (HON) Outlook Conference Call, (HPQ) business update and the (AGCO) analyst meeting could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to
weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as growing global
growth worries, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt
angst and earnings concerns offset central bank hopes, seasonal strength
and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving
neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 1,152.45 -2.54%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.01 -4.65%
- Wilshire 5000 20,791.33 -3.44%
- Russell 1000 Growth 937.76 -3.35%
- Russell 1000 Value 995.02 -3.68%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 491.40 -2.0%
- Solactive US Cyclical 136.49 -4.88%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 982.38 -3.49%
- Transports 8,836.88 -3.44%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.93 -6.98%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 39.03 -4.53%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,172.38 -.91%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 989.24 +.19%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,491 -1.80%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -837 -595
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.64 +53.8%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 261,776 -1.22%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,445,093 +.38%
- Total Put/Call 1.09 +5.83%
- ISE Sentiment 67.0 -29.47%
- Volatility(VIX) 21.08 +78.34%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.09 +9.60%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.62 +4.34%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.75 +11.94%
- Smart Money Flow Index 17,433.55 -1.36%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.706 Trillion +.69%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.953 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 45.0 +5.5%
- AAII % Bears 22.3 -13.9%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 159.73 -9.37%
- Heating Oil 201.60 -3.86%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.06 -1.73%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 309.0 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 68.99 USD/Ton -3.87%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,251.66 +.80%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.3% +10 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0496 n/a
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.67 -.28%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.60 +14.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.30 +1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.50 -10.9 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17
- US Dollar Index 88.36 -1.11%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.57 -.79%
- Yield Curve 154.0 -12.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.08% -23.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.449 Trillion +.06%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.17unch.
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 225.0 +22.48%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.32 +23.98%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 74.74 +21.07%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 328.27 +20.12%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.50 +7.07%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 378.17 +13.18%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 484.75 +27.40%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 333.47 +1.83%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% -13.0 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +2.75 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.0 +2.5 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.95 +16.02%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 653.0 +21.91%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.70 +15.60%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 387.37 +27.05%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 88.50 +1.5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.857 Trillion +.72%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,095.50 -.80%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,250 +250
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% +10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.93% +4 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 372.30 +7.29%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.3 +1.5 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% -30 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $2.60/gallon -.11/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 887.0 -9.67%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,016.55 -1.31%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%
- Rail Freight Carloads 268,153 +21.41%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (19)
- CALA, BLUE, ALDR, CEMP, CLDN, FRAN, CBST, KITE, ALOG, XOXO, RH, SPLS, PTRY, XLRN, CCRN, BDC, BGS, FRPT and BKW
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
- LE, AEO, GTT, SGEN, ANET, MW, MYCC, HDS, TRAK, TMUS, MEI, KKD, OXM, FIVE, BIG, SAVE, CMTL, LPG, KPTI, CTRE, DRIV and CONN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
