Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Gaming/Hospital Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 -3.96%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.32 +1.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.28 -3.38%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.22 +.38%

• ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 +9.68%

• Total Put/Call .89 -29.37%

• NYSE Arms .83 -48.96% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.22 -2.28%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 725.0 -.75%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.46 -.70%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.58 +1.55%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.99 +1.48%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 391.37 +.79%

• iBoxx RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 111.78 +.02%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 unch.

• TED Spread 24.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 131.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.54/Metric Tonne -4.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.70 -2.2 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.4 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.50 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +247 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukrainians Direct Fury at Russia as Mariupol Victims Mourned. Ukrainians gathered to mourn 30 civilians killed by rockets in Mariupol, blaming Russia after the deadliest attack yet on the strategic port city, as fighting between government forces and separatists spread. As President Petro Poroshenko called a day of mourning, dozens congregated Sunday to light candles on Kiev’s Independence Square, the area known as Maidan that was the epicenter of the revolt that overthrew the government last year. In the Black Sea city of Odessa and in Kharkiv, near the Russian border, people gathered at the Russian consulate.

• EU Renews Push for Russia Sanctions as Clashes Sweep Ukraine. European Union nations edged closer to tightening sanctions against Russia as fighting between government troops and rebels consumed the front line in eastern Ukraine in the deadliest escalation since a September truce. The EU will add more individuals this week to a list of those facing visa bans and asset freezes over Russia’s involvement in the conflict, Latvian President Andris Berzins, whose country holds the 28-nation bloc’s rotating presidency, said in an interview Monday. The recent events in Ukraine are “more than worrying,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier warning that more attacks would prompt an EU response.

• Russia Credit Rating Cut to Junk by S&P First Time in Decade. Russia’s credit rating was cut to junk by Standard & Poor’s, putting it below investment grade for the first time in a decade. S&P, which last downgraded Russia in April, cut the sovereign one step to BB+, according to a statement. The grade, which is on par with Bulgaria and Indonesia, has a negative outlook. The world’s biggest energy exporter is on the brink of a recession after oil prices fell to the lowest since 2009 and the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine. The penalties have locked Russian corporate borrowers out of international debt markets and curbed investor appetite for the ruble, stocks and bonds. “Russia’s monetary policy flexibility has become more limited and its economic growth prospects have weakened,” S&P said in a statement. “We also see a heightened risk that external and fiscal buffers will deteriorate due to rising external pressures and increased government support to the economy.”

• Tsipras Win Draws French Congratulations, German Threat. France’s Francois Hollande congratulated Greek Prime Minister-elect Alexis Tsipras on his election victory while urging a new government to stay the reform course, as a top German official threatened a cut-off in aid. Hollande stressed Greco-French “friendship,” even as he called on Tsipras’s new administration to adhere to “growth and stability” in the euro area, according to a government statement in Paris late Sunday. While Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government didn’t comment on Tsipras, one of her top lieutenants said Germany could scrap financial assistance if a new anti-austerity Syriza government veers off course. 

• Spain Deflation Risks Mount as Producer Prices Drop Annual 3.7%. Spanish producer prices plunged the most in more than five years last month, adding to concerns that the economy risks falling into a deflationary spiral. Prices of goods leaving factories, refineries and mines dropped 3.7 percent in December from a year earlier, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. Economists forecast a fall of 3.5 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices fell 1.1 percent from the previous month.

• Boko Haram’s Attack on Nigerian State Capital Leaves 65 Dead. At least 65 people were killed in an attack Sunday by Islamist militants on Maiduguri, the capital of the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, a local militia member said. Armed forces killed 56 militants, while nine soldiers died during the clashes as the military and local vigilante groups fended off an attempt by Boko Haram to capture Maiduguri, Hassan Ibrahim said by phone from the city. The assault was the first major fighting in the state capital since an attack on an army detention center in March. 

• European Stocks Extend Seven-Year High on ECB After Greek Vote. European stocks rose for an eighth day amid optimism about central-bank stimulus, while Greek shares dropped as opposition party Syriza won the Sunday election. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.6 percent to 372.39 at the close of trading in London, after earlier losing as much as 0.5 percent.

• Iron Ore Extends Rout as China Slows, Banks Reduce Forecasts. Iron ore retreated to the lowest level in more than five years as a slowdown in China hurt the outlook for demand in the world’s biggest user while the largest mining companies add to supply, boosting a surplus. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China, tumbled 4.3 percent to $63.54 a dry metric ton, according to data by Metal Bulletin Ltd. That’s the lowest price on record going back to May 2009, and was the biggest one-day fall since Nov. 18. The commodity is 11 percent lower this year.

• Fed to Raise Rates Midyear Even With Low Inflation, Survey Shows.

• Cliffs(CLF) Scraps Dividend to Help Pay Down Debt. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF), the largest U.S. iron-ore producer, will stop paying a dividend as it tries to cut its debt amid a slump in the price of the steelmaking raw material. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Medicare to Rework Billions in Payments. HHS Secretary Burwell Wants 50% of Payments Based on Performance by End of 2018. The Obama administration on Monday set an ambitious goal to rework hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals in an effort to reduce waste and make older Americans healthier.

• European Regulators Pressure Big Banks to Increase Capital. Banks Encouraged to Raise Capital Well Above Formal Regulatory Limits. European regulators are turning up the pressure on large banks to further strengthen their balance sheets amid nagging concerns about Europe’s financial and economic health.

MarketWatch.com:

• Return of the 3% down payment. It is getting easier for some buyers to land a house with less money up front. More lenders are lowering down-payment requirements, allowing borrowers to commit 3%—or even less—of a home’s purchase price to get a mortgage. Many had been requiring down payments of at least 20% since the recession began.

CNBC:

• Live: 'Historic' Snowstorm Bears Down on Northeast.

ZeroHedge:

• Greece's New Leader Sends Germany A Loud Message With His First Act. Tsipras's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected Greek PM was with Russia's Andrey Maslov.

• When A Soaring Dollar "Reflects Loss Of Investor Confidence And Is Potentially Devastating".

• 2 Foot "Quad-Copter" Crashed On White House Grounds.

• "Unambiguously Good"? Dallas Fed Collapses To 20-Month Lows As Orders Plunge. (graph)

• "Leverage Mismatches" - Why Q-ECB May Not Be A Favorable Development.

• Tracking Juno: New York Prepares For One Of Top-5 Snow Storms In History; 50% Of Flights Cancelled.

• Syriza Forms Coalition Government With Anti-Bailout Independent Greeks: What Happens Next.

• The Federal Reserve Has Declared The Winner In The Generational Financial War. (graph)

• US Busts Alleged Russian Spy Ring In Manhattan.

• Saxo Bank: The Syriza Victory Is A Disaster For Europe.

Business Insider: 

• IBM(IBM): Layoffs Are Coming, But Nowhere Close To 100,000.

• HEDGE FUND MANAGER ODEY WARNS: We've Entered A Downturn That Will Be Remembered In 100 Years.

• China Is Shutting Out Western Thinking.

• Putin: Ukraine's Army Is A NATO Proxy Aimed At 'Containing Russia'.

• CNN Says High-Tech Swinger's Parties Are All The Rage In Silicon Valley.

• The Oil Crash Could Trigger Billions In UK Bank Losses.

Reuters:

• Shanghai Plans Stress Test at Banks Over Property Loans. Banks in Shanghai are asked to conduct stress texts over their property loans, citing notice issued by China Banking Regulatory Commission's Shanghai office. The city's banking regulator also asked for continued monitoring over risks stemming from loans borrowed by major property companies outside Shanghai, the report says.

• Russian rouble weakens sharply after S&P downgrade. Russia's rouble weakened sharply late on Monday to trade around 5 percent lower against the U.S. dollar after ratings agency S&P downgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating to below investment grade. The rouble was trading at 67.56 at 1824 GMT, around 5 percent weaker than the previous close on the Moscow Exchange.

• Weak retail business in Europe hits Seagate revenue. Hard-drive maker Seagate Technology Plc's revenue forecast for the current quarter fell well short of analyst estimates, largely due to weakness in Europe, sending the company's shares down as much as 12 percent.

• Mega-funds start to beat retreat from emerging markets. Big pension, insurance and sovereign funds that kept faith with emerging markets during the massive selloffs of 2013 and 2014 may be starting to waver, potentially depriving the sector of a key source of support.

• EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil stocks drop on growth, inflation, energy worries.

Financial Times:

• Athens and creditors dig in on Greek debt. Greece and its international creditors dug in on opposite sides of Europe’s struggle over debt, austerity and economic reform on Monday as Alexis Tsipras, leader of the radical leftwing Syriza party, was sworn in as the new prime minister in Athens. Mr Tsipras dismayed EU governments that oppose extensive debt relief for Greece by moving swiftly to form a coalition with the Independent Greeks, a small, rightwing party that is as fiercely opposed as Syriza to the strict conditions attached to the nation’s €245bn bailout.

Telegraph:

• No debt forgiveness for Greece, say eurozone finance bosses. The eurozone has ruled out debt forgiveness for Greece and warned Alexis Tsipras that his anti-austerity coalition government must honour all past agreements with international creditors.

Bild:

• Merkel Ally Friedrich Says Germany May Scrap Greek Aid. Hans-Peter Friedrich, deputy caucus leader for Merkel's Christian Democratic-led bloc in lower house of parliament, warns Germany may scrap debt assistance to Greece. "The Greeks have the right to vote for whom they want," Friedrich tells Bild in interview. "We have the right to no longer finance Greek debt." "The Greeks now must take responsibility and cannot burden German taxpayers," Friedrich says.

Marbridge Daily:

• Less Than 60% of Online Goods in China Are Genuine Products. China's State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) has tested 92 batches of products sold online in the second half of 2014 and found that only 54 were genuine articles, equating to 58.7%. The percentage of genuine items on Alibaba Group's (NYSE: BABA) C2C e-commerce site Taobao was the lowest at 37.25%.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.01%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.54% 2) Computer Hardware -1.42% 3) Software -.93%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BKD, MAT, STX, TLK, WDC, UPS, CONE, STRA, ACAT, COUP, ETP, KMB, HLSS, COV, GWW, VRSN, SEMI, MNRO, DLTR, MDT, ENTA, JBSS, ORB, PLCE, PODD, RMTI and ETP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STX 2) OIL 3) EMR 4) SHLD 5) ILMN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UPS 2) PX 3) VALE 4) VRSN 5) STRA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.38%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +4.57% 2) Alt Energy +1.62% 3) Biotech +1.38%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MWV, OLED, HCA, RKT, AXS, RGP, GNRC, ASPS, POST, HWAY, SEMG, LCI, RGP, DXCM, DHI and ETE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMD 2) HCA 3) NPSP 4) NFX 5) RMTI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GRMN 2) KSU 3) BBBY 4) VLO 5) MWV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Rebels Launch ‘Offensives Everywhere,’ Renew Push to Sea. Ukraine said rebels and regular Russian troops pushed north and south from their strongholds in eastern Ukraine with an unprecedented shelling campaign that included the deadliest yet on the strategic port city of Mariupol. At least 20 civilians died and 87 more were wounded in rocket attacks this morning on residential districts in the eastern outskirts of the Black Sea city, Ukrainian officials said during an emergency meeting called by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Kiev. Overnight shelling in Luhansk, which borders Donetsk to the north, was the worst the region has suffered during the 10-month conflict, the local governor said. 

• Syriza Rides Anti-Austerity Wave to Decisive Victory in Greece. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said that Greece’s era of bowing to international creditors is over, as he celebrated his party’s victory in Greek elections dominated by a public backlash against years of budget cuts. Tsipras, addressing supporters in central Athens Sunday night after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras conceded defeat, said that Greece is turning a page and putting austerity behind it. The Syriza government’s priority “will be for Greece and its people to regain their lost dignity,” he said. “There will neither be a catastrophic clash nor will continued kowtowing be accepted,” said Tsipras, 40. “We are fully aware that the Greek people hasn’t given us carte blanche but a mandate for national revival.” 

• What Syriza's Sweep Means for Greece and Europe. by Mohamed El-Erian. Q: Are there broader implications? A: Yes. The outcome of the Greek elections is indicative of a broader political phenomenon in Europe that involves the growth of non-traditional parties. Fueled by concerns about disappointing growth, unemployment and social issues, it is powered by large-scale dissatisfaction with the established political order. And it isn't limited to the peripheral economies.

• Greece Syriza Win Puts Question Mark on Europe Stocks After Jump. European investors enter the week with one of their biggest anxieties confirmed, just after a stretch in which equities posted the largest jump in three years. Greek opposition party Syriza defeated Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy in the Sunday election, putting the future of the nation’s austerity programs in doubt.

• Islamic State Demands Swap After Beheading One Japanese Hostage. Islamic State militants dropped their demand for a $200 million ransom and are now seeking a prisoner exchange after the release of a video that purported to show the corpse of one of two Japanese hostages held by the group. The video had images of hostage Kenji Goto holding a blurred photo purported to be the headless corpse of Haruna Yukawa, a self-styled security contractor, who was captured in Syria by Islamic State last summer. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday that analysis showed the video was “highly likely” to be credible.

• Carney Says QE Can Encourage Excessive Risk-Taking in Markets. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned easy monetary policy could prompt excessive risk-taking in financial markets.

• China Property Agony Deepens as Trust-Loan Lifelines Cut. China’s investment trusts are pulling financing for the real estate industry as Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638)’s missed payments heighten default concerns. Issuance of property-related products, which channel money from wealthy individual investors, tumbled 62 percent from a year earlier to 38.5 billion yuan ($6.2 billion) in the fourth quarter, data compiled by research firm Use Trust show. Builders must repay 241 billion yuan of trusts in 2015, up from 178 billion yuan last year. Kaisa, which missed a bond coupon payment this month, failed to repay a 2.5 billion yuan trust last week, people familiar with the matter said.

• Shanghai Scraps Growth Target With ‘New Normal’ Focus on Quality. Shanghai city became the first of China’s 31 provinces and municipalities to not set a 2015 growth target, underscoring the shift away from unfettered expansion. The financial center’s municipal government said its economy should “rise steadily, improve structure, enhance quality and efficiency” this year, according to its annual work report released Sunday. Out of 10 other regions that have so far announced 2015 growth targets, nine have cut them.

• China Bull Market Masks Momentum Breakdown as Stock Volumes Sink. Just below the surface of China’s world-beating equity rally, signs of trouble are emerging. While the Shanghai Composite Index touched a five-year high on Friday after a 63 percent gain during the past year, other gauges of investor enthusiasm are tumbling. Turnover sank 47 percent from its peak in December, while new equity account openings fell 50 percent and purchases using borrowed money dropped 38 percent. The number of stocks reaching new 52-week highs has declined 75 percent in the past six weeks. The indicators suggest to Deutsche Bank AG and Fortune SG Fund Management Co. that China's mainland-traded A shares are no longer a one-way bet after monetary stimulus and a flood of new individual traders propelled the Shanghai gauge to eight consecutive months of gains through December. Windsor Capital, one of China’s top 10 performing hedge funds, said last week investors will have to wait until the middle of this year before the $5.1 trillion market resumes its advance. “We have seen fewer new account openings, narrower trading turnover and heightened market volatility recently in the A-share market,” Yuliang Chang, the chief China and Hong Kong strategist at Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, said in e-mailed comments on Jan. 23. “This does not bode well for this liquidity-driven rally.” 

• Euro Slips With U.S. Futures on Greece as Treasuries Gain. The euro slipped with U.S. equity-index futures, while Treasuries rallied as Greek voters handed victory to a party that’s pledged to renegotiate the terms of an international bailout. Asian stocks dropped with crude oil and industrial metals. The 19-nation euro dropped 0.3 percent to $1.1168 by 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo, near a more than 11-year low reached last week after the European Central Bank announced plans to expand asset purchases. The yield on 30-year Treasuries fell to a record low. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures sank 0.6 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.3 percent. U.S. crude declined 1.1 percent and nickel slid 1.2 percent. China’s yuan slumped a second day. 

• Oil Slides to Near 6-Year Low; Saudi Arabia Holds Firm Despite Supply Glut. Oil fell to the lowest level in almost six years as signs that Saudi Arabia’s new king will maintain its production policy and rising U.S. crude inventories bolstered speculation that a global glut will persist. Futures dropped as much as 2.7 percent in New York, extending a 6.4 percent slide last week. 

• For Saudis, Falling Demand for Oil Is the Biggest Concern. As the world’s oil producers wring their hands over a global glut that’s pushing down prices, evidence is mounting that Saudi Arabia is more concerned about shrinking demand. The world’s largest exporter has chosen not to cut production, counting instead on lower prices to stimulate consumption, said Mohammad Al Sabban, an adviser to Saudi Arabia’s petroleum minister from 1988 to 2013. The Saudis are keeping an eye on investments in fuel efficiency and renewable energy, according to Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Corp.’s head of global commodity research. “Nobody should imagine the world will continue to demand oil as long as you have it in your fields,” Al Sabban said in an interview. “We need to prepare ourselves for that stage.”

• Hedge Funds Bet Oil Will Fall Further. Hedge funds boosted bearish wagers on oil to a four-year high as U.S. supplies grew the most since 2001. Money managers increased short positions in West Texas Intermediate crude to the highest level since September 2010 in the week ended Jan. 20, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-long positions slipped for the first time in three weeks. 

• Copper Extends Declines as Dollar Gains Against Euro on Greece. Copper extended losses as the U.S. dollar gained against the euro after elections in Greece fueled concern that the country may exit the currency bloc, curbing demand for commodities priced in the greenback. Copper dropped as much as 1.2 percent after closing Jan. 23 at the lowest since July 2009. Nickel lost as much as 1.6 percent. The dollar rose to the highest level in more than 11 years against the euro after a general election victory by Syriza, the anti-austerity party committed to renegotiating Greece’s debt obligations.

• Precious Metals Coveted Once More as Draghi Acts: Commodities. Investors’ desire for precious metals is deepening after Mario Draghi’s $1.3 trillion pledge drove gold to a five-month high and silver to the brink of a bull market. Their buying helped boost the value of exchange-traded products backed by gold and silver by $8.94 billion this month, the most since September 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and other speculators in futures are the most bullish on gold in two years and have bet more on silver in all but two weeks since the start of November.

• Obama Moves to Put Much of Refuge Off Limits to Drilling. President Barack Obama’s administration will take steps to restrict 12 million acres of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge from oil and gas exploration, a move immediately denounced by Alaskan lawmakers. A plan released Sunday recommends designating “core areas” of the 19.8 million-acre refuge as wilderness, including its Coastal Plain, according to a statement from the Interior Department. The move requires approval from Congress.

• Company Bond Sales at $93 Billion See Slowest Start Since 2008. Sales of corporate bonds in the U.S. are off to their slowest start since 2008, as company treasurers wager they can afford to wait while global central banks continue to suppress borrowing costs. Issuers from American International Group Inc. to Ford Motor Co. have sold $92.8 billion in bonds so far this year, down 27 percent from this point last year and 34 percent from 2013. The drop comes even as investment-grade bond yields have fallen to 3.05 percent, below the 3.49 percent average of the past five years, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. 

• Axis Capital to Merge With PartnerRe to Create $11 Billion Reinsurer in Bermuda. Axis Capital Holdings Ltd. (AXS) agreed to merge with PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE), combining two Bermuda-based reinsurers with a total market value of almost $11 billion amid accelerating consolidation in the industry.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., Europe Threaten New Sanctions Against Moscow. Threats Come After Missile Attack in Eastern Ukraine. U.S. and European leaders threatened new sanctions against Moscow after a missile attack blamed on pro-Russian separatists killed 30 civilians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the latest escalation in violence that has brought Kiev’s fight with rebels back toward full-scale war. Russia reacted with defiance, blaming Kiev and its Western backers for the surge in fighting, but it also called for urgent talks on implementing a September cease-fire. 

• Leftists Sweep to Power in Greece. Syriza Clinches Coalition Deal With Independent Greeks. Greek voters were set to hand power to a radical leftist party in national elections on Sunday, a popular rebellion against the bitter economic medicine Greece has swallowed for five years and a rebuke of the fellow European countries that prescribed it.

• Cal Dive Preparing Chapter 11 Filing. Filing Could Come in Next Few Weeks as Rout in Oil Prices Hit Company. Oil-and-gas contractor Cal Dive International Inc. is preparing for a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing that could come as soon as the next few weeks, people familiar with the matter said, as the oil-price rout exacerbates the company’s business challenges.

• First U.S. Bitcoin Exchange Set to Open. Coinbase Has Backing From the NYSE, Banks and Venture Capitalists. The virtual currency bitcoin is getting a very real boost on Monday with the opening of the first licensed U.S. exchange.

• The Greek Warning. Radical parties rise when mainstream parties tolerate stagnation. The exit polls Sunday night suggested that Greece’s far-left Syriza party will score a major victory in the weekend’s parliamentary election. The fallout for Europe will take time to sort out, but the warning should be clear enough about the political consequences of economic stagnation.

CNBC:

• Sticker shock—Stock valuations at 10-year high.

Zero Hedge:

• Tsipras Addresses Greece, Says Bailout Agreements, "Troika Era" Are Over.

• Mapping The World's Greatest Risks (According To Davos).

• Remembering The Currency Wars Of The 1920s & 1930s (And Central Banks' "Overused Bag Of Tricks").

• Gold, Dollar "Disruption", And Central Banks' Miscalculated Insanity. (graph)

• Oil Dinosaurs Face Extinction: State Oil Companies And The Meteor-Strike Of Low Oil Prices.

• These Shale Companies Will File For Bankruptcy First: Goldman's "Best And Worst" Shale Matrix.

• 5 Things To Ponder: The ABC's Of The ECB's QE.

• Crude, Copper, & Euro Currency Crushed By King Dollar's Best Week In Over 3 Years. (graph)

• Q4 Shaping Up As Worst Quarter In Years: Aggregate Revenues And EPS Have Missed By 1.2% and 0.4% So Far. (graph)

• The $9 Trillion US Dollar Carry Trade is Blowing Up.

• Spot The Difference: Money Printing, Then And Now. (graph)

• What Crispin Odey, And His $12.4 Billion In AUM, Thinks Are The 6 Risks Underpriced By The Market.

• "Oil Drillers Are Going To Die" In Q2, Conway Mackenzie Warns "Expect Outright Liquidations".

• "QE Benefits Mostly The Wealthy" JPMorgan Admits, And Lists 8 Ways ECB's QE Will Hurt Everyone Else.

• Chart Of The Day: Souring "Mother's Milk" Edition. (graph)

• Draghi Is "Bouncing Economic Rubble With Trillion-Dollar Debt Missiles". (graph)

• How Mario Draghi Unleashed A $1.4 Trillion Negative Interest Rate Tsunami. (graph)

• The New "Shadow Of The Crisis Has Passed" Normal (In 1 Fact-Ridden Chart).

• Obamacare Website Funneling Private Consumer Data To Private Companies.

• Today Athens, Tomorrow Madrid.

• "This Won't Remain Confined In Greece".

• "Historic" Blizzard To Slam Northeast On Monday Night: Over A Foot Of Snow Expected In New York City.

• About That "Strong Dollar" - Corporatism Speaks. (graph)

• Shocking Images Of China's Dire Pollution Problem. (pic)

• Chinese Currency Plunges To Peg Limit Against USDollar, Strongest Against Euro In 14 Years. (graph)

• Greece's New FinMin Warns "We Are Going To Destroy The Greek Oligarchy System". (video)

Business Insider:

• America’s Counterterrorism Campaign In Yemen Is "Paralyzed".

• America Should Reconsider Its Cozy Relationship With Saudi Arabia.

• The European Dream Is Dying State By State.

• The World's Most Accurate Apple Analyst Is Predicting Mind-Melting iPhone Sales.

• Foreign Exchange: Swiss Miss.

• Oil Inventories Are Basically Off The Chart. (graph)

• Senior EU Officials Are Threatening New Sanctions Against Russia.

• Video Shows GRAD Rockets Fired By Rebels Hitting Cars In A Vital Ukrainian City.

• The Euro Is Getting Slammed After Syriza's Landslide Victory In Greece. (graph)

npr:

• Auto Loan Surge Fuels Fears Of Another Subprime Crisis. There's a big potential downside that's evoking comparisons to the subprime mortgage boom. Auto dealers are extending loans to a growing number of people with weak credit, and more of them are having trouble making payments.

Reuters:

• BOE's Forbes hints rates could rise sooner than expected -WSJ. Interest rates in Britain may need to start rising sooner than many expectations, Kristin Forbes, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. 

• Eastwood's "American Sniper" continues as U.S. box office juggernaut. Oscar-nominated war film "American Sniper" continued to punish the competition at U.S. and Canadian box offices over the weekend, selling a whopping $64.4 million in tickets, according to studio estimates.

• Freeport Indonesia copper exports seen declining over next 6 months. U.S. mining firm Freeport-McMoRan Inc is expected to export 500,000 tonnes of copper concentrate from its Indonesian operations over the next six months, down 100,000 tonnes from the previous six months, a company official said. The official from Freeport's Indonesian unit, who made the comment late on Sunday and declined to be named, did not give a reason for the expected fall in exports.

Financial Times:

• Synthetic CDO volumes double amid hunt for yield. Yield-starved European investors are helping to drive a resurgence of structured credit securities that were blamed for worsening the global financial crisis six years ago. Global volumes of synthetic collateralised debt obligations roughly doubled last year to about $20bn, in new and existing issues, according to two banks that help structure the products, in part because of European investors seeking higher-yielding securities.

Telegraph:

• Is QE a defeat for Germany, or a strategic retreat? Angela Merkel's pragmatism over the ECB's stimulus is a turning point in the trials and tribulations of the euro.

• Greek vote could be only the beginning for debtor states seeking a euro-exit. Even if Greece stays in the single currency, there will be ripple effects for other countries – including Britain. 

Bild:

• Bundesbank's Weidmann Warns of Real-Estate Bubble. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann tells Bild that the ECB's decision to buy government bonds will drive up real-estate prices.

Malay Mail online:

• ECB’s quantitative easing move could end up shooting Europe in the foot. Investors and financial markets have hailed the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy coup, but some observers warn that Europe might use up all its ammunition in the battle against deflation.

China Youth Daily:

• Beijing Not a Livable City at the Moment. Mayor Wang Anshun said govt's top priority is to control population. Beijing has been considering since last year to implement odd-even driving days during severe smog.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.75 +.25 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.60%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.54%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (NVR)/24.53

• (STX)/1.35

• (DHI)/.34

• (NSC)/1.64

• (TXN)/.69

• (ASH)/1.41

• (BRO)/.36

• (MSFT)/.75

• (PCL)/.34

• (MSTR)/1.04

• (CR)/1.13

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for January is estimated to fall to 3.2 versus 4.1 in December.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO and China Industrial Profits reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on escalating Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.