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Thursday, February 05, 2015

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:20 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.82%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.05% 2) Steel +1.75% 3) Coal +1.73%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HSP, SMRT, BPFH, GRA, DATA, GRUB, BLL, COTY, OPK, ICPT, PBH, ROSE, BLL, OAS, BGC, CONN, ORLY, GPRE, SPLK, CHTR, EL, LB, TW, EQT, FEYE, ATW and CCK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ATML 2) NUS 3) GLUU 4) MDLZ 5) MNKD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LB 2) UHAL 3) SMRT 4) GRUB 5) HSP
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Wednesday, February 04, 2015

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:22 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greece Loses ECB Funds, Raising Pressure to Yield to Austerity. Greece lost a critical funding artery as the European Central Bank restricted loans to its financial system, raising pressure on the 10-day-old government to yield to German-led austerity demands to stay in the euro zone. The ECB’s decision, announced at 9:36 p.m. in Frankfurt, will raise financing costs for Greek banks and stiffen oversight by the central bank. The next move is up to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who swept to power promising to reverse five years of spending cuts that accompanied 240 billion euros ($272 billion) of bailout loans. The ECB move came hours before the Greek finance chief, Yanis Varoufakis, was due to meet Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin and hours after he met ECB President Mario Draghi.
  • The Rebel Leader Who Makes Putin Look Cautious. Vladimir Putin’s critics say he went too far on Ukraine. The former Russian agent who helped trigger the conflict says his biggest mistake was not going far enough. Putin has made himself a “hostage” to the war in Ukraine by opting not to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk regions after taking Crimea, according to Igor Girkin, the former rebel commander who goes by the name Strelkov, or Shooter. If the president had sent troops into Donetsk and Luhansk to support the insurgents like he did in Crimea, all of Novorossiya, or New Russia, the term the rebels and their supporters revived to identify a swathe of southeastern Ukraine that was once part of the Russian empire, would now be reunited with the motherland, Strelkov said in an interview in Moscow. But Putin, “not understanding that he’d already crossed the West’s red line,” and influenced by “top bureaucrats and oligarchs,” decided to stop at Crimea, said Strelkov. “Now we have a war that will continue to grow, regardless of whether Russia wants it to or not.”  
  • Asia Stocks Fall on Euro Concern; China Futures Jump Amid Easing. Asian stocks fell as investors weighed the European Central Bank’s tightening of the terms of Greece’s bailout. China stock index futures climbed after the government cut banks’ reserve ratios for the first time since 2012. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 141.61 as of 9:24 a.m. in Tokyo.
Wall Street Journal:
  • China’s Total Debt Load Equals 282% of GDP, Raising Economic Risks. (graph) The speed of Chinese debt growth, much of it related to real estate, raises risks that an unwinding of the country’s two-decade growth boom might not go down so smoothly. Here are some key facts from the report.
  • Ukraine Anticipates Arms Supplies From West. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to Visit Kiev on Thursday. Ukraine’s president suggested the West is close to sending arms to Kiev to help fight off pro-Russia rebels after previous appeals for weapons were rebuffed, as the capital prepares for a visit by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in the east.
  • Greeks Meet Skepticism in Frankfurt, Brussels. The European Central Bank No Longer Accepts Greek Bonds From Banks Seeking Funding. European officials put a damper on plans by the new Greek government to ease conditions on its bailout, warning that without an extension of the existing rescue program—and the austerity measures it contains—the government will lose access to new money by the end of this month. On Wednesday evening the European Central Bank announced it would no longer accept
  • UBS Faces a New Tax-Evasion Probe. Authorities Investigate Whether Swiss Bank’s Clients Used ‘Bearer Securities’ to Hide Cash. Federal prosecutors have launched a new probe into whether Swiss bank UBS AG helped Americans evade taxes through investments largely banned in the U.S., according to people familiar with the investigation.
  • Health Insurer Anthem Hit by Hackers. Breach Gets Away With Names, Social Security Numbers of Customers, Employees. Anthem Inc., the country’s second-biggest health insurer, said hackers broke into a database containing personal information for about 80 million of its customers and employees in what is likely to be the largest data breach disclosed by a health-care company.
Fox News:
  • Brian Williams lied about his copter being shot down in Iraq. Brian Williams, the nation’s top-rated news anchor, has admitted fabricating a tale of being shot down in a helicopter over Iraq a dozen years ago. Williams apologized on the air Wednesday evening, saying: “I made a mistake in recalling the events of 12 years ago.”
MarketWatch.com:
  • Keurig(GMCR) shares fall after disappointing outlook, results. Shares of Keurig Green Mountain Inc. dropped -7.5% in the extended session Wednesday after the single-serve coffee company's outlook and quarterly results fell below Wall Street estimates.
  • What you need to know about ECB’s Greek collateral decision. It’s not a welcome development. Greek banks have suffered significant deposit withdrawals before and after the January election that brought the antiausterity government, led by Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras, to power. “This news will likely scare depositors and result in further bank runs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group in Fairfax, Va.
CNBC:
  • West Coast ports on the verge of a complete gridlock. Traffic at nearly 30 West Coast ports is on the verge of "complete gridlock" and shipping officials have threatened to stop paying dockworkers if a contract deal is not reached soon.
  • Yum Brands(YUM) earnings: 61 cents per share vs. EPS estimate of 66 cents. Same-store sales in China were forecast to plunge 19.4 percent, according to Consensus Metrix. Instead, China same-store sales declined 16 percent.
Zero Hedge:
  • ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece Via Debt Collateral - Full Statement.
  • Paul Singer Warns "The Consequences Of Monetary Manipulation Are Unknowable".
  • Meet The Man Behind The Scenes: The "Pro-Market Socialist" Banker Who Will Shape "Europe's Financial Future".
  •  Baltic  Dry Crashes To New 29-Year Low.
  • President Of Euro Parliament Warns Greece Risks National Bankruptcy; Varoufakis Replies: "Greece Already Is Bankrupt".
  • Here's A Startling Fact About President Obama's New Budget.
  • Draghi Dashes Buffett Bounce As Crude Carnage Continues. (graph)
  • These Are The "Highest Conviction" Hedge Fund Strategies And Most Crowded Trades.(graph)
  • Abegeddon: Speculators Are Net Short Japanese Stocks For First Time Since Abenomics. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • Your tweets will soon show up in Google searches — again.
  • The CME(CME) will close most of its open outcry trading pits by this summer. 
  • GREECE CRASHED. (graph)
  • Jeb Bush stumbles on Yemen in speech.
  • Russia's military is adding more planes this year than most countries own in total.
Reuters:
  • Gilead's(GILD) deep discounts fuel investor worries about drug pricing.
Telegraph:
  • Devaluation by China is the next great risk for a deflationary world. China is not alone in facing a dilemma as deflation spreads and beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars become the norm.
  • ECB tightens the screw on Greece with plan to cut funding earlier. Eurozone central bank officials refuse to accept Greek bonds, pushing the burden of supporting the country's banks back onto Athens.
Spiegel online:
  • McKinsey Says China's Debt Development Not Sustainable. Debt accumulated by private households, cos. and govt. quadrupled in China in past 7 years, citing a McKinsey study it obtained. Structure of debt in China worrisome as real estate industry's debt too high. Global indebtedness more than doubled to $199t last year from $87t in 2000. Global debt now represents 286% of global economic activity, up from 269% in 2007.
Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
  • U.S. May Lift 'Price Russia Pays for Aggression,' Biden Says. U.S. may loosen economic sanctions should Russia meet its obligations under Minsk agreement, or increase the burden on Russia for its "aggressive behavior" in Ukraine should country not follow suit, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said in an interview. The U.S. has no interest in military escalation, he said.
People's Daily:
  • China Ratio Cut Unlikely to Reverse Property Correction. The reserve requirement ratio cut is unlikely to reverse the overall correction in China's property market and smaller cities will still face destocking pressure, citing researchers.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.5 +.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.19%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ABB)/.35
  • (ADS)/3.33
  • (BDX)/1.44
  • (CI)/1.67
  • (CMI)/2.51
  • (EL)/1.05
  • (ICE)/2.54
  • (KORS)/1.33
  • (PTEN)/.50
  • (PM)/1.06
  • (SNA)/1.79
  • (VMC)/.28
  • (BWLD)/1.11
  • (CME)/.93
  • (EXPE)/1.01
  • (GPRO)/.70
  • (LNKD)/.53
  • (MCK)/2.62
  • (PPS)/.68
  • (SYMC)/.49
  • (TWTR)/.06
  • (YELP)/.24
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts for January.
  • RBC Consumer Outlook Index for February.
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.
  • Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -1.0% decline in 3Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 265K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2400K versus 2385K prior.
  • The Trade Deficit for December is estimated at -$38.0B versus -$39.0B in November.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Bank of England decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (SE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Concerns, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:24 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.47 +.81%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.97 -.71%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.67 +.57%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.30 +1.89%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +31.63%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -1.06%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +97.87% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.68 +1.09%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 750.0 -3.37%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.40 -.55%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.71 -2.77%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.41 +.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 390.45 +1.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.60 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 128.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.58/Metric Tonne -.95%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.80 +8.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.90 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -5 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlnes

Posted by Gary .....at 2:55 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • U.N. Tallies More Than 5,000 Dead in Ukraine Fighting. (video) 
  • OSCE Seeks Truce for Debaltseve Exodus, Reports Cluster Bomb Use. The OSCE called for a truce to evacuate civilians from the crossroad town of Debaltseve and said two people were killed in a strike with cluster bombs last week in the rebel-held city of Luhansk. “On humanitarian grounds” the group called on “all actors in and around the Debaltseve area to establish a local temporary truce for a minimum of three days, taking immediate effect,” Ivica Dacic, the chairman of the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe, said in a statement on Tuesday. Debaltseve, a strategic transport hub on a road connecting the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, remained under heavy fire from separatists, Ukrainian military spokesman Leonid Matyukhin said Wednesday. Nearly 2,000 civilians were evacuated from the area at the end of January, according to Ukrainian military officials.  
  • Greece May Run Out of Cash as Early as March. (video) As Greece’s creditors line up to oppose the country’s demand for a debt restructuring, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s refusal to accept more bailout loans may result in a cash crunch as early as next month, two people familiar with the country’s financial position said. Unless the 15 billion-euro ($17 billion) limit on short-term borrowing set by Greece’s troika of official creditors is raised, the government may run out of cash on Feb. 25, said one of the people, who asked not to be named because the figures are confidential. Three weeks ago, international officials reckoned Greece could hang on until mid-year.
  • Merkel Says Greek Diplomatic Offensive Is Failing. German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that a diplomatic offensive by newly elected Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to ease his nation’s bailout-aid requirements is failing to win over converts. “I don’t think that the positions of the member states within the euro area with regard to Greece differ, at least in terms of substance,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin on Wednesday. Later in Paris, Tsipras was told by French President Francois Hollande that “respecting the rules is necessary for all, for France too, and it’s not always easy.” While Tsipras has retreated from demands for a writedown of Greece’s debt, yielding to virtually unanimous opposition in the 19-member bloc, his pledge to increase spending threatens to collide with conditions of aid commitments totaling 240 billion euros ($275 billion).
  • Greeks Spooked by Debt Clashes Put Cash Under Bathroom Tiles. Withdrawals from Greek banks may have exceeded 15 billion euros ($17.2 billion) in the run-up to the elections that catapulted Alexis Tsipras and his anti-austerity Syriza party to power, including at least 11 billion euros in January, according to four bankers citing preliminary data. Tensions between the new government, which won on a platform of debt relief, and Greece’s creditors, including Germany, may keep up the pressure. “Talks with the creditors is going to be a protracted process so you can’t rule out more pressure on deposits,” said Wolfango Piccoli, managing director at Teneo Intelligence in London. “There is plenty of uncertainty and that can make depositors nervous again.”
  • North Korea Rules Out Any Talks With U.S. ‘Gangster’ State. North Korea said it won’t agree to talks with the U.S. and is now focused on its ability to destroy the country with conventional, nuclear and cyber-warfare attacks. Kim Jong Un’s regime accused the U.S. of “inching closer to the stage of igniting a war of aggression” by stepping up its sanctions, holding military drills with South Korea and predicting the future collapse of the administration, the official Korean Central News Agency said, citing a statement from the National Defense Commission.  
  • Rajan Says U.S. Must Accept Strong Dollar as Fed Normalizes. India’s central bank chief said the U.S. will have to accept a stronger exchange rate as the Federal Reserve turns toward raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. “The Fed will have to start at some point normalizing interest rates,” Raghuram Rajan, 52, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV India at the Reserve Bank of India headquarters in Mumbai. “Unless the Fed starts doing it, others aren’t going to follow suit. And the Fed, when it does that, will have to accept some appreciation of the dollar simply because it’s the first one out of the box.” He also warned Indian firms against borrowing in dollars, likening it to “Russian roulette.” 
  • European Stocks Rise Third Day as Drugmakers, Greek Shares Gain. European stocks climbed for a third day, as an increase in health-care shares and Greek companies outweighed a drop in energy producers. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5 percent to 372.1 at the close of trading, reversing losses of as much as 0.3 percent.
  • Oil’s Surge to Bull Market Viewed as Temporary Bounce. Oil is back! Or maybe not. After suffering its longest rout in history, crude rebounded Tuesday, entering a bull market after soaring 24 percent from a six-year low reached in January. Behind the gain was speculation that curbs in investment will cut production. For all the optimism among traders, firms from Barclays Plc to Societe Generale SA and UBS Group AG say the rally is just temporary because less spending won’t eliminate a glut overnight. Instead of heading back to $100 a barrel, oil could fall as low as $30 because supply surpluses won’t disappear overnight, said Miswin Mahesh, a commodities analyst at Barclays. “We don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS in Zurich, said by e-mail on Tuesday. “We expect U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to hit a new 84-year high on Wednesday, while U.S. oil production is likely to stay strong in the near term.”  
  • No Bust Seen as Dakota Oil Firms Keep Staff Amid Price Drop. A plunge in global energy prices that has put some North Dakota oil rigs in a deep freeze has yet to chill the state’s hiring climate. By almost any metric -- the jobless rate, payrolls, claims for unemployment benefits -- there is scant evidence to indicate the state at the epicenter of the U.S. shale-oil boom is about to stumble.  
  • Fed’s Mester Says Rates Should Rise ‘Soon’ Amid Labor Gains. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said interest rates should be raised “soon” amid mounting economic momentum, “significant improvement” in labor markets, and the boost consumers will get from cheaper fuel. The improvement in the world’s largest economy is likely to be sustained as headwinds that held back the expansion abate, she said today in a speech in Columbus, Ohio. Mester said she would be “comfortable with liftoff in the first half of this year” and she sees inflation gradually rising back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.
  • Ralph Lauren(RL) Falls After Currency Woes Weigh on Its Forecast. Ralph Lauren Corp., the upscale apparel company known for Polo and other brands, fell the most in more than 16 years after third-quarter earnings trailed analysts’ estimates and the company cut its sales forecast. Net income dropped 9.3 percent to $215 million, or $2.41 a share, from about $237 million, or $2.57, a year earlier, the New York-based company said Wednesday in a statement. The average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was $2.50. The company said revenue may gain about 4 percent this year, down from a previous projection of as much as 7 percent.
CNBC:
  • Three-quarters of Americans are stressed about this. (video)
ZeroHedge:
  • Mainstream Media Narrative Implodes As WTI Slumps Below $50. (graph)
  • How The ISM Beat Expectations: It Assumed January Weather Was Worse Than The Polar Vortex. (graph)
  • There Are No "Tailwinds". (graph)
  • Something Has To Give.
  • Goldman(GS) Cuts January Payrolls Forecast From 250K to 210K. 
  • 2008 Deja Vu: GMAC Confirms SEC Probe Of Subprime Loans, Will "Investigate Itself".
  • Massive Crude Inventory Build Sends WTI Crude Plunging Back Towards $50. (graph)
  • Services PMI Worst New Order Growth Since Financial Crisis, ISM Weakest Employment Since Feb 2014. (graph)
  • Impact Of China 0.5% RRR Cut Is Equivalent To RMB 630 Billion Liquidity Injection, Goldman Finds.
  • The Layoffs Begin: ADP Misses, Lowest Since September As "Businesses In The Energy Industries Are Scaling Back Payrolls". (graph)
Business Insider:
  • Former CIA deputy director: it will take 100,000 troops to destroy ISIS.
  • Germany urges Greece to 'stand on its own feet'.
  • RICH BERNSTEIN: Oil CEOs today sound like tech CEOs in 2000.
  • Things are starting to get crazy in the global stock market. (graph)
  • 7 reasons why Russia-backed separatists are winning in Ukraine.
Washington Post:
  • Defense nominee Carter ‘inclined’ to provide U.S. arms to Ukraine. Ashton B. Carter, President Obama’s choice to become his fourth secretary of defense, said Wednesday that he was “very much inclined” to provide arms to Ukraine to fend off Russian-backed rebels, something the White House so far as resisted. “We need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves,” Carter said at his Senate confirmation hearing.
Reuters:
  • Greece seeks ECB funds, Germany rejects austerity roll-back. Greece's new leftist government appealed to the European Central Bank on Wednesday to keep its banks afloat as it seeks to negotiate debt relief with its euro zone partners, but Germany rejected any roll-back of agreed austerity policies. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said after meeting ECB President Mario Draghi in Frankfurt he believed Athens could count on central bank support during the short period it would take to conclude talks with international lenders.
Die Welt:
  • European Commission Worried About  Possible Greek Bank Run. European Commission is concerned that bank clients in Greece may start withdrawing funds in large volumes in coming days, citing people close to the commission.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:42 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.45%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gaming -3.03% 2) Oil Service -2.95% 3) Construction -2.52%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SNH, RL, PEGI, AL, CMG, CHRW, MYGN, IACI, FAST, TROX, SPLS, OHI, VCLT, SAGE, GILD, WRB, TTWO, GWW, LFUS, POWL, ACHN, PVH, VFC, ABBV, RDCM, HP, PEGI, NOV, OAS, VFC, ADM, PTEN, WYNN, ISIS, RARE, AI and ACHN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) LRCX 2) APO 3) VFC 4) CNX 5) SMH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RIG 2) CHRW 3) FCX 4) RCL 5) DF
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:31 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.17%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.89% 2) Homebuilders +1.07% 3) HMOs +.83%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SJM, DIS, SNE, RNG, KSS, WNC, CTSH, WHR, EW and MANH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EPI 2) DIS 3) LVLT 4) USG 5) LNCO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CLX 2) ATHN 3) COST 4) TE 5) DIS
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments
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