Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.01%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.67% 2) REITs -.10% 3) Gold & Silver -.22%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LL, URBN, CS, EXPR and RJET

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KRFT 2) URBN 3) GERN 4) PEP 5) BKS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QCOM 2) URBN 3) ESRX 4) GDOT 5) GIMO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Euro Area Pushes Greece to Open Books as Talks Resume. European lawmakers piled pressure on Greece to open its books and follow through with pledges agreed to in its rescue package, as the country tries to avoid running out of cash as soon as this month. Greece will resume talks with its creditors in Brussels on Wednesday, alongside technical talks in Athens to comb through data. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece will make “all necessary” data available.
• China Short Sellers Target World’s Biggest Broker Rally. The world-beating surge in Chinese brokerages is reversing as short sellers increase bets against the stocks and investors speculate regulatory changes will erode earnings. Securities firms in China with market value of at least $1 billion have dropped about 15 percent on average this year, after more than doubling in 2014. Short interest, or wagers on a decline, in China Galaxy Securities Co. and Shanghai-based Haitong Securities Co. have climbed to at least 12 percent of outstanding shares, the highest among global peers tracked by Bloomberg and Markit Group Ltd.
• China’s Stocks Fall After Inflation Data as Financials Decline. China’s stocks fell, led by banks and property developers, after the release of inflation data. China Citic Bank Corp and China Merchants Bank Co. declined more than 2 percent. Poly Real Estate Group Co. dropped 2 percent after reporting sales fell 39 percent in February. Glass cover manufacturer Lens Technology Co. will sell initial public offering shares, kicking off 23 IPO sales this week. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.4 percent to 3,289.46 at 9:35 a.m. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased 0.4 percent.
• Asian Stocks Advance After U.S. Equities Rebound, Yen Weakens. Asian stocks rose, following a rebound in U.S. equities, as a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters and investors awaited data on China’s inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.1 percent to 144.08 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. 
• Dollar Jumps on Rate Outlook. The dollar extended gains, trading near a more-than seven-year high versus the yen, amid speculation U.S. interest rate increases will be brought forward. Chinese shares fell with copper after producer prices plunged. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10 major peers, rose 0.3 percent by 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo. The greenback bought 121.66 yen, close to the 121.85 hit on Dec. 8 that was the highest level since July 2007.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Hungry Market Eats Up Oil Bonds. Drop in oil prices has producers raising cash. 
• Fed Broadens Scope of Stress Tests. Tests are becoming part of Fed’s year-round activities.

Fox News:

• Exclusive: El-Sisi urges ‘Arab ready force’ to confront ISIS, questions if US ‘standing by’ Egypt. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in an exclusive interview with Fox News, appealed to the U.S. to play a greater role in helping his country fight terrorism -- as he urged the creation of an "Arab ready force" to confront the Islamic State and similar groups.

CNBC:

• Americans took on $57B in credit card debt in 2014. Credit cards have made a comeback. U.S. consumers racked up a record $57.1 billion in net credit card debt in 2014, according to a CardHub survey released Monday. The total marks a 47 percent increase from 2013.
•  Why oil decline could get ugly again. (video) Still drilling at four-decade highs, the U.S. oil industry could help drive another price collapse in crude this spring.
• Fed's Fisher calls for 'prompt' rate hike in final speech. The Federal Reserve should promptly end its easy monetary policy and press ahead with an interest rate hike, followed by a set of gradual moves higher, the head of the Dallas Fed said on Monday in his final speech as a policymaker.

Zero Hedge:

• Greeks Face First Product Shortages As Cash Runs Out, "It's Worse Than In 2012".
• "There Are Huge Gaps" In Clinton's Email Release, Benghazi Probe Chief Blasts.
• Real-Time Q1 GDP Update : 1.2%. (graph)
• Bonds Bid All Day But Stocks Shrug Off Apple's(AAPL) "Turlington Turmoil". (graph)
• Eurogroup Humiliation Of Greece Complete: The Troika Is Coming Back To Athens.
• Venezuela To Start Fingerprinting Supermarket Shoppers.

Business Insider:

• A German politician officially came out in favor of a Grexit.
• Marco Rubio: Obama was a 'backbencher,' I'm the real deal.
• There's a new ticking time bomb inside China's economy.
• America has a problem with Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
• The unexpected failure of this seemingly healthy company shows what can go wrong when you invest in China.

Reuters:

• Qualcomm(QCOM) to buy back up to $15 bln of shares, raise dividend. Chipmaker Qualcomm Inc said it would buy back up to $15 billion of shares and raise its quarterly dividend. Shares of the company, which said it would buy back up to $10 billion of shares in the next 12 months, rose 2.6 percent to $74.60 in extended trading on Monday. Qualcomm also raised its quarterly dividend to 48 cents per share from 42 cents, effective March 25.
• China's deficit plans put squeeze on local government financing. China's plan to run its biggest fiscal deficit since the global financial crisis may help develop its bond market, but the extra competition for funding could sink some of the major providers of local government financing. Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which were invented to skirt restrictions on local government fundraising, are already under pressure from Beijing's drive to reduce local debt and migrate provincial financing to a more transparent municipal bond model.
• EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real weakens sharply on political, fiscal concerns. 

Telegraph:

• Europe tightens noose as Syriza told to face the 'naked truth' over bail-out. Creditors tell Greece to stop wasting time over enacting reforms as the country scrambles to meet €350m in IMF loan repayments by the end of the week.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.25 +.75 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BKS)/1.19
• (SINA)/.18
• (PAY)/.41

Economic Releases
9:00 am EST 

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February is estimated to rise to 98.9 versus 97.9 in January.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in December.
• Wholesale Sales for for January are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.4% decline in December.
• JOLTS Job Openings for January are estimated at 5050 versus 5028 in December.

Upcoming Splits

• (ROL) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China New Loans/Inflation reports, USDA's WASDE report, weekly US retail sales reports, RBC Financials conference, Piper Jaffray Tech/Media/Telecom conference, Barclays Healthcare conference, (BMS) investor day, (CVX) analyst meeting and the (XLNX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Bounce, Yen Weakness, Defense/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.08 -.79%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.52 +.50%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.49 +1.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.90 -1.42%

• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 +18.54%

• Total Put/Call 1.22 +28.42%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 +37.16% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.89 +1.50%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 692.0 +.26%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.02 +4.68%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.34 -.76%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.22 +1.23%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 404.61 +3.67%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.86 -.27%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 26.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 150.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.58/Metric Tonne -1.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.0 -1.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.5 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.20 +18.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 -7.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +88 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On losses in my tech/medical/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Russia's 'Dark' Warplanes Are Spooking Europe. Russian military aircraft with their transponders turned off have had several close calls with civilian planes. Two Russian bombers, flying with their transponders turned off to avoid detection, swooped so close to the Irish coast that Dublin's control tower delayed the takeoff of one passenger plane and ordered another to alter its route to steer clear of the bombers. The Feb. 18 incident, disclosed last week by the Irish government, was only the latest in an alarming series of close calls with Russian warplanes in the skies over Europe. In December, a Russian military intelligence plane nearly collided with an SAS passenger jet over southern Sweden, according to the Swedish air force chief. Earlier in the year, a Russian plane flew close to another SAS jet that had just taken off from Copenhagen. Russia has denied that its aircraft were dangerously close to either plane.
• Greece Told Not to Waste Time as Euro Finance Ministers Meet. (video) Euro-area finance ministers said Greece must move faster to meet its rescue commitments in order to unlock more bailout funds, as the country risks running out of cash. “We have to stop wasting time,” said Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the finance ministers’ group. “We’ve lost over two weeks -- in which very little progress has been made. The real talks haven’t started yet. There has been no implementation.”
• Americans Get Burned by Europe Bond Rally That’s Undone by Euro. You can’t blame U.S. credit investors for wanting to ride this wave of European central bank stimulus. As policy makers buy bonds from traders in the market -- the thinking goes -- they’ll bid up prices. The problem is buying euro-denominated corporate bonds hasn’t necessarily been a good trade because the euro has been tanking relative to the dollar. While euro-denominated corporate bonds have gained 1.4 percent this year according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index, a U.S. exchange-traded fund focused on the debt has lost 9 percent. State Street Corp.’s International Corporate Bond ETF is the second-worst performer among all U.S. debt ETFs this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  
• Emerging-Market Stocks Drop for Seventh Day on U.S. Rate Outlook. Emerging-market stocks extended their longest losing streak since December, led by declines in Asia, amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates sooner, damping demand for riskier assets. Shares in India and South Korea, which were closed March 6 when data showed a bigger-than-projected increase in U.S. payrolls, fell at least 1 percent. The won weakened 1.2 percent against the dollar. The Ibovespa slid to a three-week low as economists lowered their economic growth forecasts for Brazil. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. rallied as regulators said they may allow lenders to enter the brokerage business. Russian markets were closed for a holiday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.3 percent to 958.29, decreasing for a seventh day. All 10 industry groups in the gauge declined, led by technology companies. The odds for a U.S. rate increase by September surged to 59 percent from 49 percent on Thursday, futures showed, a move that will potentially damp the appeal of riskier assets.
• European Stocks Fall From Seven-Year High, Led by Greek Shares. A drop in Greek stocks pushed European equities lower after a five-week rally. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3 percent to 393.19 at the close of trading in London after falling as much as 0.9 percent. Greece’s ASE Index slid the most among 18 western-European markets as euro-area finance ministers said the nation must move faster to meet its rescue commitments in order to unlock more bailout funds.

Wall Street Journal:

• GOP Senators Warn Iranian Leaders on Nuclear Deal. Forty-seven lawmakers say Congress could nullify any deal once Obama leaves office.

CNBC:

• Housing's new worry: Repeat foreclosures return.
• El-Erian: Here's the big problem for investors. (video) As many signs point to a Federal Reserve rate increase later this year, Mohamed El-Erian said there is now a major problem facing investors.

ZeroHedge:

• American "Nightmare" Shocker: The Real US Homeownership Rate Has Never Been Lower. (graph)
• Ranking This Bull Market Rally. (graph)
• "Size Matters" For ECB Which Runs Into Unexpected Monetization Problem.
• Greece Folds (Again); Ready To Propose "New" Reforms Immediately.
• This Was Not Supposed To Happen. (graph)
• Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index Offers No Bad News Hope For Bulls. (graph)
• If Everything's So Rosy, Why Is This Happening? (graph)
• Russia Responds To European Army Proposal: Rattles "Nuclear" Sabre.
• Goldman(GS) Blames Weather For Stronger Oil Prices, Sees WTI Sliding Back To $40.
• The Bubble Is Complete: 'Smart Money' Buys Into Bespoke Tranche "Opportunity" (Again).
• Dear Mr. Market, "It's Not Different This Time".

Business Insider:

• LIVE: The big Apple(AAPL) Watch event.
• Obama declares Venezuela a threat to US national security.
• More and more people are comparing Hillary Clinton to Richard Nixon.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) might have some problems with the Fed's next stress test.
• A staggering number of Russians hold negative views of the US.

Telegraph:

• Eurozone prepares to reject Greek reform deal as Athens warned measures are 'not enough'. Head of Europe's finance ministers tells Greece to stop wasting time over enacting reforms as the country scrambles to meet €350m in IMF loan repayments this week.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.05%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.83% 2) Coal -3.49% 3) Gaming -3.02%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

•  LL, AFOP, BITA, MDCO, WX, AA, BPT, CALA, WBAI, WYNN, AAC, PAYC, CENX, CKP, MNTX, TIF, ATHM, RLYP, PANW, CHK, ORAN, MELI, TSRO, XON, MGM, WCC and OHRP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DHR 2) HRB 3) AKS 4) M 5) LEN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBRY 2) CLF 3) PCYC 4) QSII 5) STRA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.33%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +.79% 2) Defense +.77% 3) Computer Services +.65%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RTI, PNK, GPRE, GLPI, WLL, MAC, WUBA, BYD, THRX, BIG, GLPI, UTIW, THRX, CLDN and VSLR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MAC 2) HRB 3) GPRE 4) WLL 5) RPTP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JNPR 2) UTIW 3) MAC 4) BIG 5) DHI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume