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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:52 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:   
  • Tsipras Says Merkel Wants to Find a Solution for Greece Logjam. (video) Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to find a solution for Greece, saying a default by the country would mark a failure for Europe. Tsipras made comments in a late-night interview on Star TV on Monday, after months of talks made little progress in breaking the deadlock between Greece and its institutional creditors, raising the specter of a debt default and the country’s possible exit from the euro. “A Greek default and a rupture would be a failure for Europe, for Merkel and for Greece itself,” he said. “The German Chancellor is willing to find a solution for Greece.” 
  • Hospital workers overwhelmed with wounded in Nepal rescue effort. HOSPITAL workers struggled to treat thousands of wounded after Nepal’s worst earthquake in decades, as the search for survivors entered its fourth day and hopes faded for finding those trapped under rubble. Governments from around the globe rushed to aid one of Asia’s poorest economies following the magnitude 7.8 temblor on April 25 that killed more than 3,862 people and injured at least 7,100. International relief agencies warned of water-borne diseases spreading as millions camped outdoors.
  • Sydney home prices surging at 5 times wages fuel bubble woes. Don't count on a wage increase putting that Sydney home within reach. Home prices in Australia's biggest city have surged more than five times faster than wages in each of the past two years, adding to fears of a housing bubble. Wages in New South Wales state, where 60 per cent of the population resides in Sydney, climbed 2.5 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014, compared to gains of 12.4 per cent and 14.5 per cent respectively for homes in the nation's most populous city and financial hub, according to government and CoreLogic Inc data compiled by Bloomberg.  
  • Tesla(TSLA) Demand Remains Low in China. (video)
  • China’s BYD Wins Its Biggest Electric-Bus Order in U.S. BYD Co. won an order for as many as 60 electric buses from a U.S. mass-transit operator, the largest sale of its kind for the Chinese electric-vehicle maker. The order was approved Monday by the board of directors of the Long Beach Transit Authority, Sherry Li, a spokeswoman for BYD, said Monday. The transit authority, which serves portions of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, will order 10 battery-powered buses with options for its partner agencies to buy as many as 50 more, Li said. The electric-bus deal is the biggest in the international market so far for BYD, part-owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Li said.
  • Pope Summons Scientists on Climate Change, Seeks to Shape Debate. The pontiff’s action on climate change “is the most aggressive of any pope,” John Thavis, author of “The Vatican Diaries”, said in a telephone interview. “Francis won’t just repeat platitudes in the encyclical about our being stewards of creation, he wants to engage scientific and political leaders, and influence public policy.”  
  • Asia Stocks Outside Japan Drop With Oil; Gold Holds Gain on Fed. Asian stocks outside Japan fell from a seven-year high, while oil retreated. Gold was steady after surging Monday amid speculation that mixed U.S. economic data mean Federal Reserve interest-rate increases will be delayed. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slipped 0.2 percent by 12:42 p.m. in Tokyo as oil companies dragged Hong Kong shares lower.
  • U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak Spreads to Millions of Iowa’s Egg Hens. The bird flu sweeping through U.S. poultry farms is starting to reach alarming levels after Iowa, the biggest U.S. egg producer, said flocks housing as much as 16 percent of the state’s egg-laying chickens may be infected.
  • Fed Seen Delaying Liftoff to September to Push Down Unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited liftoff on its benchmark interest rate won’t happen until September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, as officials try to spur inflation and hiring after the economy stumbled in the first quarter. Policy makers meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington will assess the impact of a harsh winter and a stronger dollar, which may have helped reduce the pace of economic growth to the lowest in a year, economists said. A hiring slowdown last month is adding to caution inside the Federal Open Market Committee, said Thomas Costerg at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fed Rule Making Has Insurers on Edge. Major shift for industry traditionally regulated by states.
  • Hillary’s Cynical Song of Self. The Clintons are counting on America to digest their ethical lapses the way a python swallows a goat. 
Fox News: 
  • Md. gov calls up National Guard after roving gangs attack police, torch patrol car and store. (video) Maryland's governor called up the National Guard late Monday hours after rioting gangs attacked police, injuring 15, torched cars and went on widespread looting sprees in a downtown section of Baltimore. Gov. Larry Hogan issued a statement late Monday saying he was declaring a state of emergency and calling up the National Guard. "These acts of violence and destruction of property cannot and will not be tolerated," he said at a late-night press conference. In addition, he said he was deploying 500 state troopers and had asked for 5,000 officers from neighboring states to deal with the violence.
MarketWatch.com:
  • China’s stock-rally paradox is living on borrowed time. How long can China’s stock markets and economy continue to head in opposite directions? Last week for example, Shanghai shares hit fresh seven-year highs, even as data showed growth had fallen to six-year lows.
CNBC: 
  • Apple(AAPL) boosts buybacks, earnings beat on strong iPhone sales. (video) Apple reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations. The company reported second-quarter earnings of $2.33 per share on revenue of $58 billion on Monday. Analysts expected tech giant Apple to report earnings of $2.16 a share and $56.08 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters. 
  • Why I've taken some money out of the market: El-Erian. (video) Asset prices have been pushed higher thanks to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but because there's uncertainty over whether the central bank will be able to deliver better economic fundamentals, Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian said he's taken some money out of the market.
Zero Hedge: 
  • How This Debt-Addicted World Could Go The Way Of The Mayans.
  • Baltimore "Purge" Begins: State Of Emergency Declared As City Burns, Rioters Warn "It's A Nice Night For A Revolution" - Live Webcast. (video)
  • Q2 GDP 'Excuse' Emerges: Up To 16,000 West Coast Port Truckers Go On Strike. (graph)
  • Guessing Game: China's "Real" GDP Growth Could Be As Low As 3.8%. (graph)
  • Austrian Economists Understand Why There Is A Commodity Glut. (graph)
  • Saxobank CIO Explains "The New Nothingness".
  • Biotechs Battered Most In Over A Year; Bullion Bid As Stocks Skid. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • After Comcast deal collapses, Time Warner is open to being bought by Charter.
  • Canada's housing bubble is beginning to burst.
  • Container Store(TCS) crashes.
  • Grim photos of the 'tent cities' springing up around Nepal after the deadly earthquake.
  • Jeffrey Toobin calls out Baltimore's 'shocking display of incompetence'.
Australian Financial Review:
  • Australia's AAA Credit Rating Vulnerable, Murray Says. Any credit downgrade for the government due to budget pressures would impact on the nation's largest banks, citing David Murray, who chaired an inquiry into the financial system. Deterioration in federal budget increases urgency for banks to set aside extra capital, Murray said. "The AAA rating of the Commonwealth is looking increasing vulnerable, with little room to move," Murray said. "Once the banks fall in under a lower rating, that should be causing a rethinking of their position."
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.0 -.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AET)/1.94
  • (AKS)/-.24
  • (BSX)/.21
  • (BP)/.07
  • (BMY)/.51
  • (COH)/.35
  • (GLW)/.33
  • (CMI)/2.15
  • (F)/.26
  • (JBLU)/.40
  • (LXK)/.77
  • (MRK)/.75
  • (PH)/1.99
  • (PFE)/.49
  • (UPS)/1.09
  • (VLO)/1.70
  • (WHR)/2.37
  • (WWW)/.34
  • (WYN)/.92
  • (AKAM)/.61
  • (BWLD)/1.63
  • (ESRX)/1.10
  • (IACI)/.35
  • (PNRA)/1.43
  • (TWTR)/.04
  • (X)/.23
  • (WDC)/1.91
  • (WYNN)/1.33
Economic Releases
9:00 AM EST
  • The S&P/CS City MoM SA for February is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.87% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
  • The Consumer Confidence Index for April is estimated to rise to 102.2 versus 101.3 in March.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to rise to -2.0 versus -8.0 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK GDP report, $5B T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports and the (CHTR) annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Monday, April 27, 2015

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:11 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.04 +6.10%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.38 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.93 -.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.78 -.95%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +21.05%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +18.42%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -16.20% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.99 -.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,058.0 -.92%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.64 -3.86%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.60 +1.88%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.30 -2.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.99 -.18%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 117.59 +.26%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 140.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.09/Metric Tonne +2.21%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.0 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.40 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +102 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:42 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Greece Just Clipped Varoufakis’s Wings. (video) Greece reshuffled its bailout-negotiating team, reining in Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, after three months of talks with creditors failed to unlock aid and a meeting with his euro-area counterparts ended in acrimony. The coordination of the day-to-day efforts to strike a deal with creditors was handed to Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos, a Greek government official said in an e-mail to reporters Monday. Varoufakis will supervise the political negotiations with euro-area member states and the International Monetary Fund. No change was announced to Greece’s representation in euro-area finance ministers’ meetings, which Varoufakis attends. 
  • This Is Nepal After the Quake. (pic)
  • Merkel Says Russia Sanctions to Stay as Ukraine Seeks EU Aid. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held summit talks with the European Union as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she expects sanctions against Russia to be renewed over the conflict in Ukraine’s east. Poroshenko met EU Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker in Kiev on Monday, as international monitors reported a surge in fighting near Ukraine’s strategic port city of Mariupol. Merkel said EU governments agreed in March that removal of sanctions, which expire in July, must be tied to adherence to the Minsk peace accord.
  • Japan Rating Cut by Fitch as Budget Fails to Offset Tax Delay. Japan’s sovereign-credit rating was lowered by Fitch Ratings, which cited a lack of steps by the government to offset effects from a delayed sales-tax increase. Fitch cut the nation’s long-term default rating by one step to A, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement released Monday in Tokyo. 
  • Europe Stocks Gain Amid Greece Optimism as HSBC, Volkswagen Rise. A Greek stock rally sent European shares higher as the nation reshuffled its bailout-negotiating team. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1 percent to 412.42 at the close of trading.
  • Saudi Prince Sees ‘Excellent’ Oil Market as Kingdom Pumps On. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, will meet any demand for its crude as the kingdom seeks to keep customers happy and maintain a balanced market, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the deputy oil minister, said. The oil market is in “excellent” condition, he told reporters Monday in the eastern city of Khobar, without elaborating. Benchmark Brent crude has gained 14 percent this year and was trading 4 cents higher at $65.32 a barrel at 2:39 p.m. in London. “We will supply any demand for Saudi oil, as we are interested in the stability of the market,” Prince Abdulaziz said. “Stability includes price, supply, and demand stability.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Applied Materials(AMAT), Tokyo Electron Cancel Merger Plan. Deal collapses after firms give up on winning antitrust approval.
  • Mylan(MYL) Rejects Teva’s Unsolicited Bid. Mylan, also pursuing Perrigo, says Teva’s $40 billion offer undervalues drug maker.
Fox News:
  • Bush unloads on Obama’s Iran diplomacy, anti-ISIS efforts. (video) Former President George W. Bush reportedly delivered a broadside against his successor's foreign policies in a closed-door meeting over the weekend, ripping the pending Iran nuclear deal in what may be his most direct criticism to date -- as Washington and Tehran resume talks.
ZeroHedge:
  • Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History. (graph)
  • Clinton Charity CEO Explains Tax Reporting "Mistakes".
  • Biotech Bubble Buckles: Tumbles Almost 7% To 3-Week Lows. (graph)
  • Is This A Blow-Off Top? Four Ways To Tell. (graph)
  • Goldman Warns Companies To Halt Buybacks At Record Valuations, Reminds What Happened In 2007. (graph)
  • Dallas Fed Extends Miss Streak To Record 5 Months, Hovers Near 6-Year Low. (graph)
  • Despite US Services PMI Miss, Markit Says "FOMC Should Normalize Policy Sooner". (graph)
  • Levered Funds Are The Most-Short Bonds Ever, Russell Shorts Lowest In A Year. (graph)
  • Varoufakis "Containment" Sparks Buying-Panic In Greek Bonds; Silver, Crude Pumped As Dollar Dumps.
Business Insider: 
  • This pharmaceutical company is crashing after saying its earnings numbers were wrong.
  • US lowers fluoride content in water for first time in 50 years.
  • Chinese investments in New York real estate could total $50 billion.
  • Gold and silver are surging. (graph)
USA Today: 
  • Baltimore police receive 'credible threat' to officers. The Baltimore Police Department said Monday it had received a "credible threat" that local gangs were targeting police officers. A department announced that the Criminal Intelligence Unit had obtained information indicating "members of various gangs including the Black Guerilla Family, Bloods and Crips have entered into a partnership to 'take out' law enforcement officers."
Telegraph: 
  • Why there's little hope for Greece's unemployed. If you're out of work in Greece, there is a good chance you may never find employment again, official data suggest.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:13 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.54%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -3.45% 2) Medical Equipment -1.55% 3) HMOs -1.52%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • AMAT, OSIS, AERI, AKRX, TBI, OSTK, DNKN, CHRW, BIB, HAE, VA, EHTH, INSY, MJN, HEP, GIMO, FRGI, MYL, CPHD, NTGR, OFG, EMES, HMHC, BLUE, XRX, IBB, HUBG, IPG, GMT, BPOP, DDD, FRGI, MYL, WERN, CNCE, VA, GBX, CUDA, ECHO, MACK, NLNK, XBIT and RGLS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) COH 2) S 3) GREK 4) ILMN 5) WMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DDD 2) TASR 3) AXP 4) CZR 5) AKRX
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:56 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.26%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +4.19% 2) Steel +1.89% 3) Oil Service +1.08%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HME, TOUR, YOKU, USLV, TSLA, DD, JOY and PRXL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KSS 2) CY 3) HRB 4) NVAX 5) CLDN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SCCO 2) NEM 3) HP 4) AAPL 5) F
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:50 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running 7.1% Below 100-day average
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
  • 68.3% of Issues Advancing, 28.3% Declining
  • 90 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 58.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.2
  • Vix 12.45
  • Total Put/Call .68
  • TRIN/Arms .98
0 comments
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