Saturday, May 16, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Greece Aid Accord Looks Elusive as Tsipras Sticks to Red Lines. An agreement between Greece and its international creditors to unblock financing and avert a default looked elusive after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he won’t strike a deal at any cost. “There’s no doubt that an agreement must be reached,” Tsipras said late Friday at a conference in Athens. “But those who think that the Greek side’s resistance can be tested or that its red lines will fade as time passes, would do well to forget it.”
  • U.S. Concerned With Pace, Scope of China Reclamation in Sea. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed U.S. concerns Saturday that China is seeking to establish de facto control of the South China Sea by expanding shoals and islets in disputed waters. In a meeting today with counterpart Wang Yi, Kerry said he urged China “to take actions that will join with everybody in helping to reduce tensions and increase the prospect of a diplomatic solution,” to conflicting territorial claims within the strategic international waterway. 
  • German Bonds’ Worst Run Since 2012 Makes Inflation Data Critical. A rekindling of the inflation outlook that helped trigger German government bonds’ worst weekly run since 2012 faces scrutiny next week with the release of final data on euro-area consumer prices for April. Bonds across the euro-area fell this week, extending a slump that wiped as much as 344 billion euros ($393 billion) off the market capitalization of the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index. That’s after the securities surged in the first quarter, when the European Central Bank began its bond-buying plan to support waning price growth in the region.
  • Clintons Report Earnings of at Least $30 Million Since 2014. The Democratic presidential candidate and her husband have a net worth between $11 million and $53 million, according to new financial disclosures – not including real estate and personal items.
    Bill and Hillary Clinton earned at least $30 million in income from speeches last year and in the first four months of 2015, the couple's financial disclosures filed Friday with the Federal Elections Commission show. That's based on payments for about 100 speeches, according to the filing, which Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign provided to Bloomberg News late Friday.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • The Plight of the Middle East’s Christians. Ancient communities in Syria and Iraq are in mortal peril. Can the West find a way to preserve the Christian presence in the Middle East—and stave off a ‘clash of civilizations’? The Christian communities of Syria and Iraq have survived 2,000 years of tumult and war. In some of them, prayers are still said in Aramaic, the language that Jesus used in daily life. These communities now tremble on the brink of destruction.
Fox News:
  • Army's elite Delta Force kills top ISIS official, Abu Sayyaf, in rare Syrian raid. (video) U.S. personnel overnight killed a key Islamic State leader in charge of the group's oil and gas operations in a raid in eastern Syria, the White House said Saturday. A team of Delta Force commandos slipped across the border from Iraq under cover of darkness Saturday aboard Black Hawk helicopters and V-22 Osprey aircraft, according to a U.S. defense official knowledgeable about details of the raid.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Mega TV:
  • IMF Sees Little Progress in Greek Talks. IMF Director of European Department Poul Thomsen told IMF's Board Thursday that there's mostly progress in process, not substance, in Greek bailout talks. IMF officials have no access to ministers, don't know whether commitments by Greek bureaucrats in so-called Brussels Group have political backing. Situation is far from ideal, Thomsen said. IMF has no clear view of Greece's liquidity situation. Greece, creditors disagree on pension system reform, labor market deregulation, fiscal policy for 2015, public administration overhaul.
Financial Times: 
  • Hedge funds loom large in oil price moves. Forget the interplay between supply and demand. When it comes to oil prices, hedge funds and speculators are exerting an uncommonly large influence, say many in one of the world’s most important markets. Oil traders have watched future prices rally to their highest level this year, within touching distance of $70 a barrel, even as the price of physical cargoes flounders under the weight of a massive oversupply.
RIA:
  • Russia to Build Up Troops in Crimea to Respond to NATO. Russia has right to deploy all kinds of weapons in Crimea, citing Russian ambassador to NATO Alexander Grushko.
Channel 4:
  • Greece won't be able to make IMF repayments, beginning with a June 5 payment, unless an agreement is reached with international partners, UK's Channel 4 reports, citing a leaked IMF memo dated May 14.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,120.46 +.23%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,120.46 +.23%
  • DJIA 18,257.0 +.35%
  • NASDAQ 5,043.97 +.81%
  • Russell 2000 1,243.05 +.69%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 35.38 -.28% 
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.22 +.62% 
  • Wilshire 5000 22,159.30 +.32%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,018.06 +.51%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,037.35 +.05%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 510.17 +1.08%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 141.08 +.33%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,049.64 +.71%
  • Transports 8,677.18 -.98%
  • Utilities 584.70 +.22%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 119.25 -.39%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.96 +.77%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,219.42 +.42%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 990.75 +.14%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 241,167 +1.05%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 168 +321
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 41.67 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 325,706 +3.45%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,750,082 +1.90%
  • Total Put/Call .85 unch.
  • OEX Put/Call 1.1 -31.25%
  • ISE Sentiment 87.0 -4.40%
  • NYSE Arms .97 +30.13%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.43 -3.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.49 -1.23%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.07 -7.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.41 -6.55%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,628.78 +.40%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.589 Trillion -.06%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.248 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 26.7 -1.2%
  • AAII % Bears 26.4 -1.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 231.46 +.94%
  • Crude Oil 59.87 +.25%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 205.57 +2.96%
  • Natural Gas 3.02 +5.62%
  • Heating Oil 200.73 +2.28%
  • Gold 1,224.50 +3.09%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.92 -2.04%
  • Copper 292.40 +.38%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 230.33 USD/Ton +.14%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 61.31 USD/Ton -.15%
  • Lumber 252.40 +3.62%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,103.35 -.49%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.2% +70.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0483 +10.72%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 124.17 +.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.60 -7.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.90 -12.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.0 +3.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/17
  • US Dollar Index 93.16 -1.64%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.74 +1.88%
  • Yield Curve 160.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.14% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.462 Trillion +.62%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.18 -8.99%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 230.0 +12.84%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.07 -3.56%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.31 +1.69%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 309.30 -1.57%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.19 +.28%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 347.32 -.01%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 301.16 -9.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 118.91 +.77%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% -3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.77 -.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,056.0 -1.74%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.1 +1.80%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 290.38 -.35%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.50 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.030 Trillion +2.0%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 992.40 -2.40%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 271,750 -7,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.85% +5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 412.50 -3.46%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.5 -.2 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.1% +90 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.69/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 637.0 +11.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 875.21 -1.47%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +23.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 277,601 -1.80%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +3.9%
  • HMOs +2.7%
  • Alt Energy +2.6%
  • Social Media +2.1%
  • Papers +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -1.1% 
  • Energy -1.9%
  • Road & Rail -3.2%
  • Coal -4.3%
  • Gaming -4.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)
  • SSNI, AOL, PLL, ROSE, RENT, IMPV, TKAI, TGI, RVNC, MOH, ZBRA, DF, NVRO, HDP, QTWO, PN, OSIR, OPWR, ZU, YDLE, WMS, LOCO, PERY, KRNY, ISSI, WMB, GDDY, DHR and XHR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
  • POM, MTZ, HMTV, NNI, KSU, NBL, MNST, GDOT, UEIC, PDVW, FGEN, PBYI, WAGE, KSS, RMD, ENV, APEI, DEPO, RAX, BBSI, NLNK and FLDM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Concerns, Technical Selling, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.65 -.81%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.66 +.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.41 -2.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.38 -.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -62.27%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +10.13%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -30.59% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.94 -1.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,056.0 -.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.11 -.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.67 -1.81%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.70 -1.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 290.81 -.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 118.91 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 160.0 -9.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.31/Metric Tonne -1.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.6 -9.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.90 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.0 +5.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +23 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -136 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.41%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -2.13% 2) Banks -1.41% 3) Computer Hardware -.91%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • ZAYO, PAYC, LOCO, GMCR, DDS, MMYT, FGEN, CSTM, ANET, SHG, EXP, CLVS, AEGR, DE, SNY, GHDX, SSI, ENV, UMBF, TK, CATY, CMGE, SYMC, WRLD, SYT and SSI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HZNP 2) JWN 3) LOCO 4) HTZ 5) DE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WYNN 2) DE 3) FB 4) DDS 5) GMCR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.05%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +.81% 2) Road & Rail +.76% 3) REITs +.63%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SRNE, CAR, BONA, CBI, NFLX, DAR, SHAK, OVAS and HTZ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FTR 2) WIN 3) SFM 4) CAR 5) ATML
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) UPS 2) AMAT 3) HBI 4) MOS 5) CASY
Charts: