Thursday, June 25, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Hollande Says Greek Deal Possible as Merkel Sees No Progress. (video) French President Francois Hollande held out the prospect of a deal for Greece even as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said negotiations looked to be going backward. The contrast in tone from the heads of Europe’s two biggest economies reflected the frustration among leaders and finance ministers after days of talks in Brussels failed to yield a breakthrough. Finance chiefs will reconvene on Saturday for their fifth session on Greece in just over a week.
  • Dueling Greece Plans Confound Race for Bailout Deal. (video) Euro-area finance ministers expressed bemusement on the status of talks with Greece after they were presented at the last minute with competing proposals aimed at resolving the standoff over aid. Greece’s creditors pulled together a common position that doesn’t have the support of the Greek government and sent it to finance chiefs to review as the basis for a deal, said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs meetings of his euro-area counterparts. A Greek government official said that Greece had submitted its own proposals.
  • More ‘Tantrums’ Likely as Fed Tightens, India’s Rajan Says. Indian central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan warned of more volatility in global financial markets on par with the so-called “taper tantrum” in 2013 that sent the rupee in a tailspin. “With the back-to-back quantitative easing stimulus programs by other major central banks, alongside possible tightening by Fed, what we have seen might be only one of a series of ‘tantrums’ that the global financial markets are likely to witness,” Rajan wrote in a forward to the Financial Stability Report published by the Reserve Bank of India.
  • Brazil Real, Stocks Sink on Legal Petition to Avert Lula Arrest. Brazilian stocks and the real sank after a news report that a legal measure was filed to prevent former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from being arrested amid Brazil’s largest graft probe. The Ibovespa led losses in the Americas and the currency reversed earlier gains after Folha de S. Paulo newspaper reported a so-called habeas corpus request was filed on behalf of Lula. The legal maneuver would allow detainees to seek relief from unlawful imprisonment. Lula hasn’t taken any such legal action, according to a spokesman for his institute. “That’s all adding to the political instability environment we’re living in Brazil these days,” Raphael Figueredo, an analyst at the brokerage firm Clear Corretora, said by message. “As investors saw this, they ran to look for protection. That’s why the Ibovespa and the real plunged.” The benchmark gauge slumped 1.6 percent to 52,9755.62 at 12:29 p.m. in Sao Paulo. The real slid 0.6 percent to 3.117 per dollar.
  • China Goes on a $46 Billion Aussie Home Spending Spree. Surging Chinese demand for Australian homes is dwarfing efforts to root out illegal buyers as the government struggles to avert a backlash against unaffordable housing. Since announcing a crackdown on unlawful home purchases in February, the government has forced only one foreigner to sell up. Chinese already buy almost a quarter of new homes in Sydney and their outlay will more than double to A$60 billion ($46 billion) in the six years to 2020, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. 
  • Dubai Seen Prepared as Home Prices Predicted to Tumble 20%. Faced with predictions that Dubai home prices may drop as much as 20 percent this year, analysts say the emirate’s real estate developers and lenders are better prepared than when a crash in 2008 brought the city to the brink of bankruptcy. Standard & Poor’s this week estimated that values may fall by as much as a fifth this year, while brokers CBRE Group and JLL Inc. see a 10 percent decline. Still, builders and banks face less risk than they did six years ago, thanks to lending restrictions, a clampdown on speculation and greater dependence on rental income.
  • Emerging Stocks Drop as China Slumps, Greek Debt Talks Continue. Emerging-market stocks fell for the first time in four days as Chinese equities slumped and concern grew that Greece may not reach a deal with creditors. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 3.5 percent, led by technology companies, after traders sold shares purchased with borrowed money for a third day. Brazilian stocks and the real tumbled following a report that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is taking preventive legal measures to avoid an arrest amid a graft probe. Hungary’s BUX index led declines in developing Europe, dropping 1.7 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.5 percent to 988.30 at 11:28 a.m. in New York.
  • Tin Set for Worst First Half in Quarter Century on Ample Supply. Tin prices are set for the biggest first half decline in at least a quarter century amid ample supplies and lackluster demand. The metal used in electronics and packaging is down 23 percent this year, the worst-performing industrial metal on the London Metal Exchange. That’s the biggest percentage decline in full-year data on Bloomberg going back to 1990.
  • Tarullo Sees No Convincing Explanation for Changes in Liquidity. Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said regulatory changes may be one factor affecting liquidity in financial markets, but there isn’t a “very precise and convincing explanation of exactly what has happened.” Something does seem to have changed, including market structure, a bigger role for asset managers than before the 2008 financial crisis and the growth of high-frequency trading, Tarullo said Thursday at a conference in New York.
  • Worried About Debt-Market Liquidity? Let Go of Those Bank Bonds. Call it the liquidity curse. If rising interest rates prompt investors to flee debt markets, bank bonds could be the hardest hit among corporate securities, according to Bank of America Corp. “We’re now moving into an environment of outflows, which means a lot of investors are going to have to sell bonds for an extended period of time,” Hans Mikkelsen, head of U.S. investment-grade credit strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a telephone interview.
  • Options Bears Take Fresh Stab at Biotech Amid Rally Topping 500%. Knives are out again for biotechnology stocks amid a rally that has burned skeptics repeatedly for six years. Demand for options tied to declines in an exchange-traded fund tracking the companies rose to the highest level in three years relative to bullish ones, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index has risen 549 percent since March 2009, including a 3.8 percent advance last week. Interest in bearish options on drug developers has jumped in the last year after the group was called out as overvalued by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on two occasions. Biotechs are selling stock at a pace not seen in a decade and one concern is that something will disrupt the money spigot. Biotech companies are doing follow-on stock offerings at the fastest pace in more than 10 years. In the first quarter, biotech and pharmaceutical companies used 93 share sales to reap $18.7 billion, three times more than in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Aetna(AET) Closing In on Deal to Acquire Humana(HUM). Aetna Inc., the second-largest U.S. health insurer by market value, is closing in on an acquisition of Humana Inc. and could reach a deal as early as this weekend, several people with knowledge of the matter said. Humana shares rose 8 percent to $198.99 at 1:47 p.m. in New York, the biggest intraday gain since May 29. Aetna shares rose 2.8 percent to $131.07.
Fox News:
  • Supreme Court upholds ObamaCare subsidies. (video) The Supreme Court on Thursday upheld ObamaCare subsidies nationwide, in the second major court victory for President Obama on his signature health care law. In a 6-3 decision, the court ruled that subsidies are valid even in states that did not set up their own insurance exchanges. A ruling against the administration would have threatened subsidies worth millions in nearly three-dozen states and imperiled the program itself. For months, though, the administration said it had no back-up plans, confident the Supreme Court would rule in its favor.
  • Watchdog reveals evidence was destroyed during probe of IRS targeting. (video) The lead government watchdog for the IRS revealed Thursday that computer evidence was erased during the investigation into the agency's targeting scandal, months after the IRS was told to preserve documents. J. Russell George, the Treasury inspector general for tax administration, testified to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that IRS employees erased computer backup tapes shortly after officials discovered thousands of emails related to the tax agency's Tea Party scandal had been lost. As many as 24,000 emails were lost because 422 backup tapes were "magnetically erased" around March 4, 2014.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
  • BLACKROCK(BLK) WARNS: China's debt has lost its potency and is now 'turning into poison'. Their research, citing IMF data, points to only four other credit booms of similar magnitude in China over the past 50 years. On all four occasions they ended in a banking crisis occurring within three years. Blackrock, citing a study by consultancy group McKinsey, says that between 2007 to 2014 total debt accumulated in China ballooned by $21 trillion. That increase took total Chinese debt as a percentage of GDP from 158% to 282% in just eight years.
Financial Times:
  • Shadow lending crackdown looms over China’s stock market. China’s shadow banks, increasingly wary of lending into a slowing economy, have turned to the stock market, fuelling a surge in unregulated margin lending that has driven the market’s dizzying gains over the past year. Now regulators are cracking down on shadow lending to stock investors, a campaign analysts say is partly to blame for last week’s 13 per cent fall in the Shanghai Composite Index — the largest weekly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008.
China Business News:
  • Banks in China's Shenzhen Raise Home Mortgage Rates. CCB and BOC canceled discount on interest rates of home mortgage in Shenzhen amid the city's booming housing market.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.23%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -3.05% 2) Oil Tankers -2.42% 3) Oil Service -1.35%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SEMI, MEI, SBRA, WRLD, APOG, CREE, ISSI, IPXL, ACE, INSY, NCR, CAF, BKS, CTL, WAT, BBBY, CAR, ETE, ARLP, NFLX, CHA, SNR, IXYS, FNSR, IPGP, HIFR, JUNO, EYES, GBX, NHTC and ALDR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ODP 2) ABT 3) BHI 4) XLV 5) NKE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHK 2) WRLD 3) MUR 4) PBR 5) NFLX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.08%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +10.0% 2) HMOs +1.44% 3) Medical Equipment +.53%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CYH, THC, LPNT, IACI, HCA, UHS, RMTI, TMH, WGO, WWWW, CMC, MACK, LLY, EVHC and FTK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ISSI 2) HCA 3) ZNGA 4) CYH 5) CREE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) THC 2) CYH 3) T 4) IACI 5) KR
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Greece Edges Closer to Default. Greece stumbled closer to default as another day of negotiations ended in the early hours without a deal to end the standoff over bailout aid. With the Greek government saying it held firm in the flurry of meetings in Brussels on Wednesday, European Union officials said the talks yielded little progress and no breakthrough was in sight. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the heads of the three creditor institutions agreed to reconvene first thing on Thursday after a few hours’ sleep.
  • Goldman Sees Ukraine in Solvency Crisis, Likely Default in July. Ukraine is facing a solvency and liquidity crisis and will likely miss a bond coupon payment next month and default on its debt, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The government is unlikely to resolve a disagreement with its creditors on its debt repayment plan in the coming weeks and will likely issue a moratorium before skipping a July 24 coupon payment, analyst Andrew Matheny wrote in a research note on Wednesday. Ukraine has asked creditors to take a 40 percent writedown in principal and accept new bonds tied to its future economic performance under its repayment plan.
  • China Moves Closer to ‘Riskiest’ Step by Removing Loans Cap. China took one of its biggest steps in banking reform, moving to end a two-decade-old rule that has capped lending relative to deposits as Premier Li Keqiang seeks to usher in market-based economics. An amendment to the banking law will remove the 75 percent limit, the State Council said on its website Wednesday. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress needs to give approval at its meeting in March. While the change has the potential to boost credit growth, a bigger constraint may be limited demand for funds in a faltering economy. Looming now is what the central bank has called one of the “riskiest” parts of financial reform: ditching a ceiling on the interest rates that lenders pay on deposits, a move that may come in the second half of this year.
  • Momo’s No to U.S. Shows China Stock Exodus Gathering Speed. Momo Inc., the maker of a chat app used for casual dating, is taking China’s pullout from the U.S stock market to a new level. Just six months after raising $248 million in an initial public offering, the chief executive officer is buying out shareholders to take the company private. It’s the second-fastest take-private bid for a Chinese company in the U.S. in the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  
  • Macau Slump Spreading From Gambling Tables to Property Market. Macau’s six-year lucky streak has come to an end. That’s become evident not just at the baccarat tables but at real estate agencies, too. After more than quintupling over six years, residential prices are heading for their first year of declines since 2008, tracking a gambling revenue slump in the world’s largest casino hub. Home prices may drop 15 percent this year, real estate broker Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. forecasts. 
  • China Tech Stock Boom Falters as Traders Shun Soaring Valuations. A rally in Chinese technology companies is reversing at the fastest pace in at least a year on concern valuations are too high relative to earnings growth. The CSI 300 Information Technology Index has slumped 14 percent from its June 2 record, almost three times the loss by the broader gauge. Even after the declines, the hi-tech measure trades at 78 times earnings, versus 31 times for the Nasdaq Composite Index in the U.S. The Chinese index declined 1 percent at the mid-morning break Thursday.
  • OPEC's Oil Revenues Have Dropped Below $1 Trillion - Here's What That Looks Like. (video) OPEC nations' oil revenues dropped last year below the psychological $1 trillion mark for the first time since 2010, in the clearest sign yet of the economic impact of lower prices for oil-rich nations. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday in its annual statistical report that its 12-members earned $964.6 billion selling their petroleum, down 12.7 per cent from $1.1 trillion in 2013 and the lowest amount since 2010. Oil export revenues hit a nominal record of $1.2 trillion in 2012, according to OPEC data. 
  • Goldman’s Cohn: You’re Wrong If You Think Markets Ready for Fed. Years of discussing when and how the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates probably isn’t going to prevent market participants from being caught off guard, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said. “We’re probably less ready than people think,” Cohn said on a podcast posted Wednesday on the firm’s website. “It won’t at all be surprising to me if there are some interesting market reactions based on official change in rate policy by the Fed.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Onetime Obama Advisers Warn White House on Iran Nuclear Talks. Foreign-policy strategists say they would oppose agreement if certain tough terms weren’t included. A group of influential U.S. foreign-policy strategists, including five former confidants of President Barack Obama, warned the White House Wednesday they would oppose a nuclear agreement with Iran if tough terms weren’t included in a final agreement.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
  • Cree(CREE) to restructure LED business, cuts revenue forecast. Cree Inc, a light-emitting diode maker, said it would restructure its LED products business, hurt by a decline in selling price and under-utilization of its factory. Cree, which also lowered its revenue forecast for the fourth quarter, said on Wednesday it would buy back $500 million worth of stock for fiscal 2016.
Telegraph: 
Evening Recommendations 
UBS:
  • Cut (CHK) to Sell.
  • Cut (MUR) to Sell.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 +2.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ACN)/1.23
  • (BKS)/-.40
  • (CMC)/.39
  • (LNN)/.81
  • (WGO)/.42
  • (DRC)/.12
  • (MU)/.57
  • (NKE)/.83
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus unch. in April.
  • The PCE Core for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 273K versus 267K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2218K versus 2222K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for June is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus 56.2 in May.
11:00 am EST
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for June is estimated to rise to -9 versus -13 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Taruillo speaking, Eurozone Leaders Summit, Japan CPI report, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, GFK Consumer Confidence report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DYN) analyst meeting and the (GOGO) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Greece Debt Deal Worries, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Healthcare/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.71 +4.95%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.97 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.69 -1.36%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.82 -.91%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +7.29%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -11.46%
  • NYSE Arms 1.29 +36.84% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.93 +.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,035.0 -32.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.94 +3.36%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.77 +3.17%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.31 +.54%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 300.33 +1.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.82 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 -2.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 28.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 170.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.53/Metric Tonne +1.94%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.90 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.4 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.50 -2.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -78 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long