Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • China Scraps Overseas Debt Quotas as Capital Outflows Worsen. China removed quotas for companies to raise funds in the overseas bond and loan markets, as it tries to staunch capital outflows spurred by a currency devaluation. The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top planning agency, will remove quota approval processes for foreign currency or yuan notes and loans with a term of more than one year, according to a statement on its website Wednesday. Companies are only required to register with the regulator, the statement said. Previously, the NDRC reviewed each firm’s application for foreign borrowing, according to Moody’s Investors Service.  
  • JPMorgan Stops China Synthetic Shorts After Regulatory Crackdown. Some banks are scaling back offerings that enable clients to indirectly wager against Chinese stocks through Hong Kong’s stock exchange link with Shanghai, as China’s regulators clamp down on practices such as short-selling. JPMorgan Chase & Co. stopped offering so-called synthetic shorts on shares under the Shanghai Connect arrangement, according to an e-mail from its prime brokerage unit to clients including hedge funds this week. Credit Suisse Group AG also cut back on products that enable synthetic short-selling of Shanghai Connect stocks, said two people with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
  • Japan Rating Cut by S&P as Abe Falls Short of Early Promise. Standard & Poor’s cut Japan’s long-term credit rating one level to A+, saying it sees little chance of the Abe government’s strategy turning around the poor outlook for economic growth and inflation over the next few years. The move comes just a day after the Bank of Japan refrained from boosting record asset purchases, betting there will be a resumption in growth and inflation. That’s left the onus on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Cabinet to consider a fiscal stimulus package to boost what evidence indicates is a lackluster recovery in the second half of the year so far. “We believe that the government’s economic revival strategy -- dubbed "Abenomics" -- will not be able to reverse this deterioration in the next two to three years,” S&P said in a statement. “Economic support for Japan’s sovereign creditworthiness has continued to weaken.”
  • OECD Issues Warning to Fed on Pace of Future Rate Increases. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said the Federal Reserve would be right to begin raising interest rates this week while warning that uncertainty about the path of tightening poses a greater threat to the economy. Fed policy makers led by Chair Janet Yellen begin their two-day meeting on Wednesday with economists divided over whether the gathering will conclude with the first U.S. rate increase in almost a decade. 
  • Europe Stocks Rise Before Fed Decision; SABMiller, AB InBev Gain. SABMiller Plc led European shares higher, while investors count down to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due tomorrow. SABMiller soared 20 percent after saying that Anheuser-Busch InBev NV intends to make a takeover proposal. The Belgian brewer jumped 6.4 percent. Richemont gained 6.6 percent after the world’s biggest jewelry maker said five-month sales accelerated amid higher demand in Japan and Europe. Hermes International SCA added 3.8 percent. Inditex SA rose 5.9 percent after the owner of Zara reported a 26 percent surge in profit. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.5 percent to 361.87 at the close of trading.
  • Grain Prices to Weaken on Less Severe El Nino Weather, Olam Says. Olam International Ltd., one of the world’s largest food commodities traders, expects grain and oilseed prices to weaken further because the El Nino weather phenomenon will be less harmful to harvests than feared. "We are bearish," Olam Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese said in an interview in London on Tuesday. "El Nino will not be as severe" as many in the agricultural commodities market expect, he added.
  • Goldman(GS) Warns Markets Unprepared for Fed as Treasuries Seesaw. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says financial markets are vulnerable because nobody can agree on what the Federal Reserve will do. Treasuries whipped around amid the debate. Treasuries rose Wednesday, rebounding from a selloff a day earlier when retail-sales data increased speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein said U.S. economic data don’t support the case for higher interest rates, a day after Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist, said policy makers lack consensus and probably won’t act this month amid concern that markets may not be prepared. “I wouldn’t do it unless I was compelled,” Blankfein said Wednesday at a breakfast in New York sponsored by the Wall Street Journal. The Fed’s end of quantitative easing and higher taxes have acted as a brake on the economy and a form of tightening, he said. Futures show there’s a 28 percent chance of the Fed raising rates Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  
  • QE's Cost: Fed Exit May Hit Economy Faster Than in Past Cycles. The Federal Reserve will have to confront the costs of its massive balance-sheet expansion when policy makers raise interest rates. The U.S. central bank’s exit strategy from unprecedented stimulus looks set to send big ripples through the financial system once it begins. These could hit the economy faster than they did in past tightening cycles, as rate rises radiate through a banking system constrained by new regulations and flooded with cash created by the Fed’s bond-buying program. The question is what that means for the economy and how it alters Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s calculus over the pace of tightening. Understanding the plumbing of the new financial landscape will be vital for policy makers trying to fine-tune the economy and investors navigating turbulent markets.
  • Watch for Junk-Bond Air Pockets as Sprint Spirals Downward. Sprint Corp. is a cautionary tale for investors who think they’re immune to carnage in the $1.3 trillion junk-bond market as long as they steer clear of energy debt. Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded the wireless company, which has more than $30 billion of debt outstanding, as it struggles to compete with better capitalized competitors such as AT&T Inc. and T-Mobile USA. Much of the company’s debt was downgraded several steps to Caa1, which is considered close to default. The market response was fierce. Sprint’s $2.5 billion of bonds maturing in 2028 plunged as low as 80.8 cents on the dollar from 88.4 cents on Monday. Its $4.2 billion of notes maturing in 2023 fell as low as 90.1 cents from 98.6 cents two days earlier.
  • FedEx(FDX) Trims 2016 Forecast as First-Quarter Earnings Fall Short. FedEx Corp., considered a bellwether for the U.S. economy because of the range of products it moves, cut its full-year profit forecast just three months into the company’s new fiscal year. The company cited softer demand for some shipments that crisscross the U.S. by truck and higher costs in its Ground unit. Earnings will be $10.40 to $10.90 per share before some costs, short of the company’s previous projection of $10.60 to $11.10. Profit for the quarter ended Aug. 31 was $2.42 a share, FedEx said Wednesday. That trailed the $2.45-a-share average of 25 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
 Wall Street Journal
CNBC: 
  • How will newbie fund managers handle their first Fed hike? The last time the Fed raised interest rates was in 2006. There was no Twitter. There were no iPhones. The world has changed a lot since then, and almost 10 years later, we may be close to seeing another rate hike by the Fed, if not Thursday, then at some point in the next few weeks or months. But there are so many financial professionals now who have no experience with this. To be specific, that number is 13.9 percent, according to data from eVestment.
Zero Hedge:
USA Today:
  • GOP debate looks to be outsiders vs. insiders battle. Republican presidential hopefuls are preparing for their second televised debate later tonight at the Ronald Reagan Library in California, as polls show Donald Trump as the party's front-runner. Bloomberg's Phil Mattingly previews the de Bloomberg.
Reuters:
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.19%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals -1.01% 2) Biotech -1.0% 3) Homebuilders -.63%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • MRTX, SIRO, XRAY, PAYC, GSBD, CBRL, FDX, SONC, THG, FMI, ININ, RMBS, JNP, FOLD, PKE, GRUB, PDCO, ARDX, VLO, XLRN, RTRX, DRI and XPO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) APA 2) DHR 3) XLP 4) S 5) PYPL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) S 2) FOLD 3) PEB 4) WRK 5) CRI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.95%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +5.21% 2) Oil Service +3.14% 3) Energy +1.98%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ADEP, ITCI, AIRM, TAP, BUD, XNCR, COLL, MEG, MXL, STRZA, EFOI, ENDP, ASNA, MTDR and PCL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TAP 2) SWFT 3) HRTX 4) ETFC 5) RMD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HSY 2) PF 3) CMS 4) JD 5) DVN
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • China Faces Parlous Path Toward Yuan and Capital Liberalization. President Xi Jinping’s military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in early September showcased China’s latest fighter jets, missiles and rising military prowess. China hopes a super-sized yuan will someday do the same thing in the economic realm. Xi’s first five-year plan since becoming Chinese President in March 2013, expected out as soon as this year, will chart the path for the second-largest economy’s further global integration. A key part of the effort is promoting the yuan as a rival currency of choice to the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen for trade and investment and the gradual opening of China’s closed capital account.
  • No Escape for China Hedge Funds Overwhelmed by Stocks Collapse. It’s about to get even uglier for China’s hedge funds. The newfangled industry, short on expertise and ways to protect itself from market declines, has seen almost 1,300 funds liquidate amid China’s $5 trillion stocks selloff, and a similar number may be at risk, according to Howbuy Investment Management Co. Now, a government crackdown on short selling and other hedging strategies have made prospering in a bear market difficult. 
  • Wages Below China Spark Russian Dreams of Manufacturing Revival. It’s taken a currency crisis and the biggest collapse in wages under President Vladimir Putin to put Russian workers on a more level playing field. The decline in nominal salaries has probably pushed them below Chinese earnings in dollar terms, according to Renaissance Capital and Bank of America. Data set to be released this week will show that Russian wages adjusted for inflation plummeted for a 10th month, falling 9 percent in August and weighing on retail sales, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys. 
  • Copying China Bailout Fund Is Great Way to Lose Money in Stocks. It looked like the perfect target for copycat investors in China: a state-run agency armed with more than $400 billion to prop up share prices. When the filings came in -- showing China Securities Finance Corp. had taken major stakes in companies as part of its market-rescue effort -- traders jumped to buy what they dubbed on social media as “the King’s favorite concubines.” Unfortunately for the copycats, an endorsement from the equity market’s savior has done nothing to ensure outsized returns. In fact, it’s just the opposite -- the stock picks have trailed the broader market. The 46 companies that reported the agency as a top 10 shareholder in the past two months lost an average 29 percent since the announcement, versus a 21 percent drop for the Shanghai Composite Index.
  • European Bankers Can't Catch a Break as Firings Keep Coming. Seven years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Europe’s largest banks are poised for more bloodletting. New management teams at Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Plc and Standard Chartered Plc are among executives contemplating reorganizations that could involve thousands of job reductions. Deutsche Bank, which runs Europe’s biggest investment bank, may trim 8,000 positions across its businesses, a person familiar with the matter said this week.
  • Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Equities Higher as Consumer Shares Gain. Asian stocks rose, following a rally in U.S. equities, as investors sifted through the latest data on the world’s biggest economy before the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1 percent to 127.90 as of 9:08 a.m. in Hong Kong, with consumer and industrial shares leading gains. 
  • The Doomsayer's Guide to the Fed, Rates and What Could Go Wrong. It’s the most closely dissected and highly anticipated decision on U.S. interest rates in recent memory. Traders and analysts alike have had years to prepare. So if the Federal Reserve finally does raise rates this week, what could possibly go wrong? Plenty it seems. Some market watchers such as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers are warning that financial markets still aren’t ready and could easily be caught off-guard. As Summers and others have pointed out, futures traders are pricing in just a 28 percent chance of an increase this week, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Asset Managers Face Tough Choice If Rates Rise. An increase in interest rates would force many asset managers to make a hard decision: keep the extra money or pass it along to returns-starved clients. Few areas of finance have as much riding on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision this week as the $2.7 trillion money-market-fund industry. While interest rates have been near zero, asset managers including Charles Schwab Corp. and Federated Investors Inc. have waived more than $30 billion worth of fees on their money funds over the past six years to keep expenses from eating up the funds’ yields and
  • Extend and Pretend for Migrants. The European Union’s plan for immigration is as nonexistent as its plan for debt. In the immediate refugee crisis many Europeans are acting on their humanitarian instincts, and that’s laudable. Angela Merkel, Germany’s leader, has been beatified for spontaneously throwing open her country’s doors to an estimated 800,000 Middle Eastern immigrants.
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 -2.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 82.5 -3.0 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CBRL)/1.86
  • (FDX)/2.46
  • (MLHR)/.47
  • (ORCL)/.52
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  • The CPI Ex Food & Energy for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated at 61.0 versus 61.0 in August.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,790,000 barrels versus a +2,570,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -361,560 barrels versus a +384,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +427,220 barrels versus a 952,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.55% versus a -1.9% decline prior.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July.
Upcoming Splits
  • (MDVN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report, Japan Trade Balance data, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Credit Suissee Basic Materials conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare conference, BofA Merrill Healthcare conference, Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference, Deutsche Bank Technology conference, Barclays Financial Services conference, BofA Merrill Real Estate conference, Citi Industrials conference, CSFB Small/Mid-Cap conference, (PBI) analyst day, (UA) investor day, (DV) investor day and the (ETH) investor conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.62 -6.72%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.83 -.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.33 -2.07%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.48 -2.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 -1.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 +10.78%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -32.94% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.13 -.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,906.0 -1.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.12 -1.67%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.68 -1.32%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 82.69 -3.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 344.14 -3.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 118.53 +.27%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 29.25 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.0 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.28/Metric Tonne -1.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.4 -4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.0 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 +1.0 basis point
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 3.84 -.10
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +244 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -116 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long