Thursday, November 19, 2015

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:39 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.05%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.23% 2) Airlines +1.89% 3) Software +1.12%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • KBIO, GMCR, VLRS, OLED, CTRP, TUMI, CRM, SJM, VRX, BLDR, BRC, FRGI, DWRE and WEN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) FL 2) NCR 3) A 4) NFX 5) BBY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) CTRP 2) CRM 3) WEN 4) INTC 5) JBLU
Charts: 
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:03 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:30 PM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Police Don't Yet Know If Ringleader Killed in Paris Terror Raid. The raid on a hideout near Paris on Wednesday was so violent that police fired 5,000 rounds and aren’t even sure how many militants died in explosions that left the building unsteady. What’s more, they don’t know if the presumed ringleader of the Paris attacks is among those killed. The predawn raid was ordered after witnesses, telephone surveillance and a text message found on a discarded mobile phone suggested the presence of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected Belgian architect of last Friday’s murders in Paris that took the lives of 129 people in a series of coordinated assaults at a sports stadium, a concert hall, and restaurants and bars. Seven men and one women were arrested in the raid, and police are still working to identify them, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said in a news conference in the French capital. At least two of the extremists died in the assault and investigators are still studying remains to establish if more were killed. Five policemen were wounded. Neither Abaaoud nor Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the killings, were among those arrested, Molins said. The prosecutor, however, said it was too early to say if they were among those slain.
  • China Developers Back Out of Beijing Land Purchase as Costs Rise. China Resources Land Ltd. and China Merchants Land Ltd. backed out of purchasing a plot in Beijing they won at auction after the final price exceeded their budgets, underscoring rising pressure Chinese developers face from surging land costs. The developers will not buy the site in Beijing’s suburban Fengtai district they won in the auction with co-bidder Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co. on Nov. 2, said a Hong Kong-based investor relations officer with China Resources who asked not to be named, citing company policy. The final price for the site “substantially exceeded” China Resources’s budget, the officer added, declining to give the agreed per-square-meter maximum the developer was prepared to pay. Shenzhen Overseas was bidding at the auction on behalf of the other two developers. The investor relations department of China Merchants and the public relations department of Shenzhen Overseas declined to comment.  
  • No Sign China Has Stopped Hacking U.S. Companies, Official Says. The Chinese government hasn’t stopped hacking American companies to steal industrial trade secrets, despite pledges to do so, the top U.S. national counterintelligence official said. "We haven’t seen any indication in the private sector that anything has changed," said William Evanina, who works under U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper, told reporters Wednesday. "We are skeptical at best in the intelligence community that they would be able to do that," Evanina said. "It would be turning off a big faucet in China."
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Euro Falling to Dollar Parity. (video)
  • Euro Parity Flagged by Invesco on View for December Fed Liftoff. The Federal Reserve is certain to raise interest rates in December, lifting the dollar toward parity with the euro, according to Invesco Ltd. Dollar strength will come largely against emerging Asian currencies rather than its developed-market peers, with the yen particularly resilient as the Fed keeps the pace of tightening slow, the Atlanta-based manager of about $790 billion in assets said.
  • Asian Stocks Rise on Fed Minutes as Investors Await BOJ Decision. Asian stocks rose, following a rally in U.S. shares, after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed policy makers’ faith in the world’s biggest economy, with officials saying the pace of any rate increases will be gradual. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7 percent to 132.47 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo.  
  • Copper May Drop to $3,800 in `16 on Bleak Outlook, Meir Says. Copper could slump to a $3,800 a metric ton next year, hitting fresh six-year lows, and forcing “shell-shocked” producers to make much deeper output cuts as demand growth stalls in China, according to Ed Meir, an analyst at INTL FCStone Inc. Demand in the world’s biggest consumer won’t grow next year, Meir said in an interview Wednesday at an industry conference in Shanghai. “It’s grim-to-bleak, so the onus is on the supply side. The market needs to transition to a lower price point to force more cuts.”A fall to $3,800 would be about an 18 percent drop from current prices, extending declines as investors fret over faltering Chinese demand and a stronger dollar.   
  • Fed Minutes Make a December Liftoff Look More Likely. The hawks are in and the doves are out. At least for the moment. Warning about risks to the labor market, skeptical about the eventual rise of inflation and nervous about global growth, Federal Reserve policy makers who are keen to delay an interest rate hike found themselves out of step with a majority of their colleagues at the Oct. 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, minutes released Wednesday in Washington showed. “The doves lost,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc. in Chicago. And that defeat came, she added, before the release of a better-than-expected October jobs report that provided more evidence of an economy on solid ground.
  • Allergan(AGN) Drops as Treasury Plans to Deter Inversion Deals. Allergan Plc, the Ireland-based drugmaker in talks to be taken over by Pfizer Inc., dropped in late trading on plans by the U.S. Treasury Department to deter companies from doing deals to move their headquarters abroad for tax purposes. Shares of Allergan slid 4.4 percent to $297 in extended trading. The company’s potential deal with New York-based Pfizer is predicated, in part, on giving the larger drugmaker a way to reduce its tax rate by becoming nominally Irish. Allergan’s principal executive offices are in New Jersey. 
  • Pfizer(PFE) Said Near Agreement to Buy Allergan(AGN) in Biggest Deal. Pfizer Inc. is in advanced talks to buy Botox maker Allergan Plc for as much as $380 per share, according to people familiar with the matter. The companies are aiming to announce a deal as soon as Monday, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. The price being discussed is $370 to $380 per share, two of the people said. However, the U.S. Treasury Department’s letter on tax inversion deals, released on Wednesday, could delay the final agreement and change the terms of any transaction, another person said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Paris Attack: Latest Updates.
  • Fed Tipping Toward December Rate Hike, Minutes Show by Jon Hilsenrath. Most officials see economic conditions as possibly warranting liftoff on rates at next meeting. Federal Reserve officials meeting last month anticipated it “could well be” time to raise short-term interest rates at a December policy meeting after keeping them pinned near zero for seven years. Fed officials thus decided to change the wording of their Oct. 28 policy statement to ensure their options were open for a move in December, according to minutes of the...
  • Rising Rates Pose Challenge to Health Law. Higher-cost premiums for 2016 threaten the appeal of the program for the healthy customers it needs.
  • Japanese Deflation Threat Hangs Over China. Political pressure on China not to devalue the yuan could be adding to deflationary pressure, as it once did to Japan.
  • When the College Madness Came to My Campus. The student protests are about power. And now that leftists have it, what good to them is free speech?
  • Mistrusting Obama on ISIS—and Refugees. The president’s refusal to admit a policy error in Syria stirs uneasiness about how he is handling the humanitarian crisis. You must understand: President Obama is accustomed to kid-glove treatment from most of the media most of the time. So when he was asked repeatedly at a Monday news conference in Turkey why he continues to insist that he never underestimated Islamic State (ISIS), and that his strategy against the terrorist outfit is working, it follows that he would become a little touchy.
Fox News: 
  • Obama threatens to veto House GOP bill on Syrian refugee screening. (video) President Obama threatened late Wednesday to veto legislation aimed at improving screening for Syrian refugees, potentially putting the White House and Congress on a collision course in a matter of days. The veto threat came as the House was preparing the bill -- which sets high hurdles for refugee admission including FBI background checks and sign-offs by top officials -- for floor action as early as Thursday. In a committee meeting, Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, accused the president of confusing the public about the intentions of the legislation.
MarketWatch.com: 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
@Breaking911:
PIX 11:
  • ISIS New York video: Terror group releases warning of Times Square attack. (video) Terror group ISIS released a propaganda video Wednesday that makes threats against New York. The video shows several scenes in Manhattan including Times Square, a Gap in Herald Square, T.G.I. Friday's and yellow taxi cabs on city streets. The new video also features footage from a previously released video mentioning a New York attack.
Reuters: 
  • Sluggish economies weaken business jet sales. Weakening or sluggish economies around the globe are taking a toll on business aircraft sales and prices, forestalling an incipient recovery that had raised the hopes of plane makers and suppliers.
  • Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings off 24.5 pct YTD. Billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings portfolio has lost 24.5 percent this year, extending its fall this week as its biggest holding, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, declined further, the company said on its website.
Telegraph: 
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.73 +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links 

 Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
  • (WMS)/.35
  • (BBY)/.35
  • (BKE)/.79
  • (SJM)/1.51
  • (JKS)/.81
  • (PERY)/.04
  • (SHLD)/-2.84
  • (SSI)/-.19
  • (SMRT)/-.07
  • (CRMT)/.70
  • (ADSK)/.08
  • (GPS)/.63
  • (INTU)/-.04
  • (ROST)/.50
  • (SPLK)/.02
  • (TFM)/.22
  • (WSM)/.72
  • (WDAY)/-.04
  • (ZOES)/.03 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 270K versus 276K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2169K versus 2174K prior.    
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for November is estimated to rise to -.3 versus -4.5 in October. 
10:00 am EST
  • Leading Index for October is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fischer speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, UK retail sales report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for November, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (RF) investor day, (INTC) investor meeting, (CAH) analyst day and the (ROK) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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Stocks Finish Substantially Higher on Central Bank Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Short-Covering, Biotech/Financial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 4:15 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.09 -9.29%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.48 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.47 -.66%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.87 -3.19%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +6.74%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +13.64%
  • NYSE Arms .38 -68.26% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.90 -1.34%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,242.0 +.69%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.17 -1.54%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.96 -.80%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.13 -2.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 317.35 -1.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.98 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -44.75 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.59 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% unch.
  • Yield Curve 139.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $46.35/Metric Tonne +1.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.0 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.4 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 +3.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 2.92 +.13
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +326 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +78 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added some back
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:11 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Terrorists Likely Planned Another Attack, Paris Prosecutor Says. Terrorists had likely planned another attack, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said, citing findings from a predawn police raid in a Paris suburb that led to the deaths of at least two extremists and seven arrests. In the seven-hour assault that began at 4:30 a.m., one young woman blew herself up, and another extremist was killed by bullets and hand grenades, he said at a press conference in Paris Wednesday. Phone taps, surveillance and witness accounts had led investigators to conclude that Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected ringleader of Friday’s terrorist attacks, might be holed up in Saint Denis, the very suburb where the night’s violence began outside the Stade de France. Molins said Abbaoud was not among those arrested. Neither was Abdeslam Salah, one of the eight suspected perpetrators of the attacks in the Paris area. Last week’s attacks killed 129 people and left more than 300 injured.
  • France Intensifies Assault on Islamic State at Home and Abroad. (video) France escalated its retaliation against Islamic State both at home and on the global stage. A predawn police raid on a pedestrian street in a Paris suburb led to the deaths of two extremists and seven arrests, while a French aircraft carrier headed to the eastern Mediterranean to intensify the bombardment of the terror group’s positions in Syria. “We must annihilate an army that threatens the whole world,” President Francois Hollande said after SWAT teams stormed what authorities believed was the hideout of the architect of last week’s violence that claimed 129 lives. Hollande tracked the operation from his office at the Elysee Palace as the focus swung back to the streets of the capital region from the global stage. Russia and France, long at loggerheads over their approach to the war in Syria, took steps toward a united military front against Islamic State in response to the massacre in Paris and a downed plane in Egypt.
  • Bloomberg Poll: Most Americans Oppose Syrian Refugee Resettlement. Americans agree with Republican presidential candidates on refugees, but are divided on whether to send U.S. troops to Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State, according to the poll. Fifty-three percent of U.S. adults in the survey, conducted in the days immediately following the attacks, say the nation should not continue a program to resettle up to 10,000 Syrian refugees. Just 28 percent would keep the program with the screening process as it now exists, while 11 percent said they would favor a limited program to accept only Syrian Christians while excluding Muslims. More broadly, terrorism and the Islamic State group surged to the top of Americans’ concerns immediately following the deadly attacks, even as Republicans and Democrats remain divided over how best to address threats. The percentage of those rating terrorism or the Islamic State as top concerns has nearly doubled since the poll last was taken in September. At the same time, those who think the U.S. is on the right track, fell to 23 percent, the lowest rating in more than three years.  Obama’s disapproval rating rose to 51 percent, up four percentage points since September.
  • China's Economy Faces Considerable Downward Pressure, Xi Says. (video) Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged downside risks to growth while assuring fellow leaders that Asia’s biggest economy is resilient and will remain on the path of reform. China is working to overcome the challenges of slowing global growth this year by advancing reforms and won’t change its policy on foreign investment, Xi said at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation chief executives summit in Manila on Wednesday. “In general, China’s positive economic fundamentals and long-term trajectory remain unchanged,” Xi said, taking the stage after U.S. President Barack Obama. “On the other hand, China’s economy is still coping with the complicated internal and external environment, considerable downward pressure and the temporary pain of deep reforms.”  
  • The $152-billion bill Canadian banks — and consumers — will have to pay for a crisis they avoided. Canadian banks are starting to get their share of the bill for global regulations designed to prevent a repeat of the taxpayer funded bailouts of the 2008 financial crisis. Over the next five years the nation’s six-largest banks will need to convert $152 billion of capital into securities that can be used as a shock absorber during a crisis, according to estimates from Royal Bank of Canada. That pales in comparison with the $1.2 trillion tab the world’s biggest lenders face, but the Canadians are unusual in that they never needed rescuing in the first place. 
  • Europe Stocks Little Changed With CAC 40 Falling After Shootout. European stocks were little changed as investors assessed value after the strongest rally in six weeks, while France’s CAC 40 Index retreated after a police gun battle with suspects linked to the Paris terror attack. Air Liquide SA slid the most on the French equity gauge, falling 7.4 percent after agreeing to purchase U.S. rival Airgas Inc. The CAC 40, which jumped the most in six weeks yesterday, retreated 0.6 percent at the close of trading in Paris after the shootout left at least two people dead. L’Oreal SA slid 1.7 percent and LVMH lost 1.1 percent in France. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1 percent to 379.33, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.8 percent.
  • Glencore's Debt Problems Worsen on Copper Prices. (video) 
  • Codelco Says It Won't Cut Copper Production as Prices Slump. The head of the world’s biggest copper miner said he would rather rein in costs than curb output to navigate a slump in prices that are hitting fresh six-year lows almost daily. Chile’s Codelco this week slashed the premium it charges Chinese buyers by 26 percent, the most since the global financial crisis, as it seeks to sustain sales to the world’s largest consumer amid weakening demand.
  • Bloomberg current implied probability for Dec. 16 Fed 25 basis point rate hike at 66% versus 68% prior to FOMC minutes release today.
  • Fed Inserted Language to Stress Potential for December Liftoff. (video) Federal Reserve policy makers inserted language into their October statement to stress that “it may well become appropriate” to raise the benchmark lending rate in December and largely agreed that the pace of increases would be gradual, minutes of the meeting showed. “Members emphasized that this change was intended to convey the sense that, while no decision had been made, it may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process at the next meeting,” said minutes of the FOMC’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington. A majority of Fed officials have signaled they expect to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006. That message was underscored when policy makers inserted a reference to the “next meeting” on Dec. 15-16 in their October statement, in connection with their assessment on when to act. 
  • Blackstone's(BX) James Says U.S. May Enter Recession in 2017. The U.S. may enter a recession within two years as economic growth faces headwinds, Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if we had one in 2017,” James said Wednesday at Bank of America Corp.’s banking and financial services conference in New York. “I’m turning more pessimistic now. There are a lot of headwinds facing us right now.”
  • Target(TGT), Wal-Mart(WMT) See Online Sales Growth Slow in Ominous Sign. (video)
    Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. both saw a big slowdown in online sales growth last quarter, fueling concern that the brick-and-mortar chains aren’t transitioning fast enough to e-commerce. Target’s Internet sales grew 20 percent third quarter, missing the 30 percent gain it expected, the retailer said on Wednesday. The previous day, Wal-Mart posted quarterly e-commerce growth of 10 percent, compared with 16 percent in the second quarter and 21 percent a year earlier. The deceleration underscores the challenge of competing with Amazon.com Inc., the world’s largest Internet retailer. Wal-Mart is spending as much as $1.5 billion this year to improve its e-commerce operations, and investors expect to see a big bump in sales. Target also has stepped up its online investments.
  • Carlyle's Unwanted Debt Exposes Growing Problem on Wall Street. Investors who piled into anything and everything in the junk-debt market in recent years have begun to run in the other direction at the first sign of trouble. The turnabout has caught Wall Street’s biggest banks off guard and is increasingly leaving them on the hook for funding takeovers that investors want little part of. On Tuesday, Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley were forced to shelve the debt package backing the year’s largest leveraged buyout -- $5.5 billion meant to fund Carlyle Group LP’s purchase of Veritas, Symantec Corp.’s data-storage business, according to two people familiar with the matter. “It’s very much a whipsaw market,” said Martin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC. “Outside of a recessionary period, this has been pretty brutal.”
  • BlackRock(BLK) Winding Down Global Macro Hedge Fund After Losses. BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, is winding down a global macro hedge fund after losses and investor redemptions eroded assets. BlackRock Global Ascent lost 9.4 percent this year, according to an October investor document, on track for its worst year since inception in 2003. The fund, which had $4.6 billion in assets just two years ago, has shrunk to less than $1 billion as of Nov. 1, said a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information is private.
Zero Hedge:
Mashable:
  • ISIS magazine: 'Nightmare in France has only begun'. The Islamic State published a new edition of its propaganda magazine Wednesday, calling last week's attacks in Paris and the bombing of a Russian passenger jet earlier this month "revenge" for French and Russian military actions in Iraq and Syria.
Daily Mail:
Xinhua:
  • China Energy Consumption to Grow ~3% y/y Over 5 Years. Energy consumption will expand approximately 3% annual over the next five years, slowing down from an avg growth of 4.3% during 2010-2014, citing Zhang Yuqing, deputy director of the National Energy Administration at a recent conference on clean energy development.
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:49 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.53%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Oil Tankers -1.68% 2) Utilities -.43% 3) Energy -.22%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • RMAX, TGT, SYT, CTXS, QCOM, GNC, EHIC, ASPS, NHTC, KLXI, SMCI, LBTYK, IACI, GPRO, PAGP, SU, FNHC, GLOB, MAR, PTR, SM, WMS, TMUS, INGN, OSIR, PRTY and CTXS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) MAR 2) EWJ 3) TIF 4) SUNE 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) GPRO 2) DSX 3) QCOM 4) SHLD 5) WYNN
Charts: 
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