Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -45.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 42.6% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 32.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.8%
• Vix 15.7 +.8%
• Total Put/Call .90 +8.43%
• TRIN/Arms 1.27 +144.74%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• U.S. Embassy in Beijing Warns of Threat Against Foreigners. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing said Thursday it received information of possible threats against Westerners visiting a popular shopping district in the Chinese capital on or around Christmas Day. In a message sent to U.S. citizens, the embassy urged heightened vigilance and said that it had issued the same guidance to American government personnel. The Sanlitun district of Beijing, for which the warning was issued, is home to numerous bars and restaurants and is also where Apple Inc. opened its first store in China in 2008.
• Dollar to Strengthen Versus All Major Peers Except Pound, Loonie. The dollar will strengthen against all its Group-of-10 peers except the pound and Canadian currency in the first quarter while New Zealand’s kiwi will be the worst performer, according to analyst forecasts. The greenback has advanced against eight of its G-10 counterparts since the end of September as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade and futures signal another increase will take place as early as April. The kiwi and Aussie have shrugged of weakness in commodities to lead gains. The pound dropped to the lowest since April this week amid concern a slowing economy make it less likely the Bank of England will follow the Fed next year by tightening policy.
• Asian Stocks Advance as Crude Oil Futures Rise for Fourth Day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent as of 11:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index and South Korea’s Kospi both advanced 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.7 percent, while indexes in Taiwan and Singapore climbed 0.6 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.5 percent, closing at a record high. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rallied 1.3 percent with volume about half its 30-day average for the time of day. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest miner, surged 5.2 percent, paring this year’s slump to 33 percent.
• China's Stocks Drop for Second Day on Property, Drug Shares. China’s stocks fell for a second day, dragged down by health-care and property companies, with turnover dwindling as most regional markets shut for the holidays. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.4 percent to 3,621.05 at 9:53 a.m., Beijing Tongrentang Co. fell 6.2 percent, paring a month-long rally to 45 percent.
• With Just Days Left, Grinch Is Stealing Retail Christmas: Chart. (graph) It may not be a very merry year for retail profit margins, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Chen Grazutis and Mariam Sherzard find. Month-to-date sales rose 1.8% from 2014, less than Johnson Redbook’s 2.3% December target. Warmer temperatures probably deterred purchases of seasonal gear, pushing retailers to deepen discounts. That’s on top of holiday promotions, which will pressure margins and profits. 
• Investors Pull Out of Mutual Funds at the Fastest Rate in Two Years. Investors pulled more money from U.S. mutual funds last week than they have in any seven-day period in the past two and a half years. Net redemptions reached $28.6 billion in the week ended Dec. 16, according to a statement from the Investment Company Institute, a trade group. It was the biggest weekly outflow since June 2013, ICI data show. 

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Pursued Secret Contacts With Assad Regime for Years. Effort to limit violence and get president to relinquish power failed. The Obama administration pursued secret communications with elements of Syria’s regime over several years in a failed attempt to limit violence and get President Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power, according to U.S. and Arab officials. Early on, the U.S. looked for cracks in the regime it could exploit to encourage a military coup, but found few. The efforts reflect how President Barack Obama’s administration has grappled to understand and interact with an opaque Middle East dictatorship run for 45 years by the Assad family. 
• Junk Investors Evade the Trade. Money managers are hesitant to dive into the riskiest debt as the sector remains volatile. 
• U.S. Firms Prepare for End to Iran Sanctions. Apple(AAPL), GE(GE), HP(HPQ) gear up for potential opening of markets in Islamic Republic. Ahead of an expected lifting of sanctions, several U.S. corporate giants including personal-computer seller HP Inc. and General Electric Inc.’s oil-services unit are actively exploring a market entry.
• Malls Reel as Web Roars With Holiday Shopping. Stampede of online shoppers tests limits of delivery services, retailers.
• The Year Christmas Died. New York’s Fifth Avenue is a celebration of pretty much nothing—or worse. As we moved into December and what for some time has been called “the holiday season,” the Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the University of Tennessee issued a “best practices” directive for the campus to “ensure your holiday party is not a Christmas party in disguise.” 
• Mele Kalik-Baracka. President Obama jets to a Hawaiian holiday, while the world unravels. Before leaving for his annual Hawaiian Christmas vacation, President Obama found an odd way to wish Americans “Mele Kalikimaka!” In an interview with National Public Radio, he discussed Islamic State, also known as ISIS. While admitting that “they can hurt our people and our families,” the president once again played down the terrorist threat.

Fox News:

• Cyberattack Surge: 100M medical records hacked in 2015, officials say. (video) A string of cyberattacks sent shockwaves through the health care industry in 2015, exposing sensitive data of millions of Americans and serving up the chilling reminder that providers need to step up their security game.

MarketWatch.com:

• The effects of chronic drinking on your brain may be even greater than we thought. Alcohol-related cognitive decline may include impaired memory, decision-making and regulation of emotions and anxiety.

CNBC:

• When a Unicorn Start-Up Stumbles, Its Employees Get Hurt.
• Oil heading below $30. Here's why: Expert. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• This Is Canada's Depression: Surging Crime, Soaring Suicides, Overwhelmed Food Banks "And The Worst Is Yet To Come". (graph)
• The Big Short: "Every American Should See This Movie & Be Pissed Off".
• The Trade Wars Begin: U.S. Imposes 256% Tarriff On Chinese Steel Imports. (graph)
• What Fresh Horror Awaits The Economy After Fed Rate Hike?
• China Proposes A Fix For Its Crashing Housing Market: "Transplant" 100 Million Farmers Into Its Cities. (graph)
• What Silicon Valley’s Orgy Of Christmas Party Excess Says About America.
• Buyback Bloodbath & Beyond: How BBBY Lost $1.7 Billion Buying Back Its Own Stock. (graph)
• BofAML Fears "Violent" Unwinds As Central Bank 'Put' Expires. (graph)
• "Dash-For-Trash" Melt-Up Erases Post-Fed "Policy Error" Losses. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Martin Shkreli's old company has now completely imploded.

Reuters:

• International stock funds' outflows most in over four years after Fed hike: ICI.

Financial Times:

• US banks hit by cheap oil as Opec warns of long-term low. US banks face the prospect of tougher stress tests next year because of their exposure to oil in a sign of how the falling price of crude is transforming the outlook not just for energy companies but the financial sector. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday lowered its long-term estimates for oil demand and said the price of crude would not return to the level it reached last year, at $100 a barrel, until 2040 at the earliest.

Telegraph:

• OPEC faces a mortal threat from electric cars. The oil cartel is living in a time-warp, seemingly unaware that global energy politics have changed forever.  

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.0 -1.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.75 -.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.71 +.06%.
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 270K versus 271K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2200K versus 2238K prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoJ Minutes and Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading(equity markets close at 1pm est) today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Commodity/Hospital Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.54 -6.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.80 -.60%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.32 -.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.06 -1.69%

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +51.7%

• Total Put/Call .76 -15.6%

• NYSE Arms .47 -20.53% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.40 -2.55%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,715.0 -2.85%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.25 -3.94%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.39 -1.33%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.76 -1.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 352.57 -1.80%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.64 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 39.0 -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +6.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.66 +.35%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 128.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $40.82/Metric Tonne +.05%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.8 -3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.20 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% +5.0 basis points
• 55.6% chance of next Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 72.4% chance at June 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +214 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical/biotech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Large-Cap Growth +.59%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Homebuilders +.1% 2) Internet +.1% 3) Disk Drives +.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NKE, BBBY, MCRB, MU, RJF, GLOB, EDE, GNE, HRL, WMC, NWL, DIS, UDF, UPS and ACAT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) EWT 2) CZR 3) DDD 4) CPRT 5) XRT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) BBBY 2) UNFI 3) MU 4) PCLN 5) SCS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Hospitals +4.2% 2) Oil Service +3.7% 3) Gaming +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• ADMS, RWLK, ROVI, CAMP, CELG, TK, KYN, CLR, ETE, WLL, CLR, WMB, XEC and GBX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) ALLY 2) WBA 3) LINE 4) AA 5) WLL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) CELG 2) DLPH 3) EPD 4) FINL 5) DDD

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 85.1% of Issues Advancing, 13.3% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 29.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.0
• Vix 15.9 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call .67 -25.6%
• TRIN/Arms .53 -9.32%