Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.8%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.1% 2) Oil Service -.3% 3) Utilities -.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• SWHC, LULU and KN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) ASNA 2) CL 3) AEO 4) SYF 5) MYL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) LULU 2) EPD 3) TNP 4) NUS 5) LMT

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 13.7% of Issues Advancing, 84.8% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 120 New Lows
• 29.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.9%
• Vix 22.5 +24.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.1 +8.91%
• TRIN/Arms .74 -44.18%

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on commodity weakness, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, global growth fears, technical selling, yen strength and emerging market currency worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Fault Lines: Where Economic Turbulence Could Start in 2016. (video) China’s leaders are striving to cut leverage while restructuring growth away from an over reliance on investment and toward greater consumption and services. Sounds simple. But there’s a risk the transition triggers a steeper slide in growth in 2016. Things could also go awry if there’s an acceleration of capital outflows, corporate defaults that trigger more bank bad loans, or increased turbulence in the shadow banking industry, according to economists and analysts interviewed by Bloomberg.
• Munich Police Probe Terror Links as Railroad Stations Reopened. Munich police remain on high alert after foreign security agencies warned Germany of a suicide terror plot by Islamic State militants before the New Year’s holiday. The Bavarian capital’s main railroad station and a train hub in the city’s Pasing district were evacuated for about five hours overnight to thwart an attack. The group of suspected terrorists consisted of five to seven persons, Munich police chief Hubertus Andrae said at a press conference Friday. Warnings regarding the plot included a scenario of attacks with automatic rifles similar to the Paris killings in November.
• Russian Crude Output Hits Monthly Record Amid Plunging Prices. Russia’s crude output set another post-Soviet record in December, a sign that the nation’s producers are withstanding the slump in oil prices, according to Energy Ministry data. The country’s crude and gas condensate production increased to 10.825 million barrels a day last month, beating the previous record set in November by 0.4 percent, Bloomberg calculations based on the data show. Output for the year increased 1.4 percent compared with 2014, exceeding 534 million metric tons, or almost 10.726 million barrels a day, according to the preliminary information e-mailed from Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. Russian crude producers have been setting post-Soviet records even amid plunging prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to foreign financing and technology. The companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some aging fields in West Siberia and brought a few mid-sized new projects on line. Russia’s crude export rose to 5.25 million barrels a day in 2015, according to the data, with supplies to countries outside the former Soviet Union jumping 11 percent to more than 4.42 million barrels. 
• Shire Said in Advanced Talks to Acquire U.S. Drugmaker Baxalta(BXLT). Shire Plc is in advanced talks to acquire Baxalta Inc. for about $32 billion in cash and stock, excluding debt, according to people familiar with the matter. The two drugmakers may announce a deal as soon as this week, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter isn’t public. The price being discussed is $46.50 to $48 a share, two of the people said. Final details of the transaction are still being negotiated and the timing and structure of any offer may change, they said.
• Clinton Says January Tax Proposals Will 'Go Beyond' Buffett Rule. (video)

Wall Street Journal:

• Saudis Draw Criticism After Executing Prominent Shiite Cleric Nemer al-Nemer. Death, among dozens of others, sets off protests and sparks criticism across Middle East. Saudi Arabia on Saturday executed influential Shiite cleric Nemer al-Nemer as part of its largest mass execution in decades, sparking protests in the country’s restive east and drawing a wave of condemnation from around the region. He and 46 others were executed across the country after being convicted of terrorism, the Saudi Interior Ministry said.
• China’s Crash Course: How a Turbulent Year Derailed Reform. Despite a slowing economy, the events of 2015 have diminished Beijing’s appetite for change.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CCL), (MAT) and (NOK).
• Had bearish commentary on (DDD) and (P).

MarketWatch.com:

• New Year’s hangover for Wall Street: Earnings season misery. Dismal year in stocks to be followed by dismal earnings reports.
• How the medical code overhaul will affect you. Prepare for complications with doctors, hospitals and insurers.

Fox News:

• House GOP: First task sending White House bill repealing ObamaCare, defunding Planned Parenthood. (video) Congressional Republicans are vowing that the first action upon returning to Capitol Hill will be to send a bill to President Obama that repeals his health care law and defunds Planned Parenthood. “We were sent to Congress to fight for the American people,” Missouri GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler said Saturday. “They do not want their healthcare dictated to them by Washington. And they don't want their tax dollars going to abortion providers. … If the president didn't hear the people's voices earlier, hopefully, he will through this bill.”

CNBC:.

• At C.D.C., a Debate Behind Recommendations on Cellphone Risk. When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published new guidelines 18 months ago regarding the radiation risk from cellphones, it used unusually bold language on the topic for the American health agency: "We recommend caution in cellphone use." The agency's website previously had said that any risks "likely are comparable to other lifestyle choices we make every day."

Zero Hedge:

• Protesters Storm, Set Fire To Saudi Embassy In Iran. (pic)
• From $500,000 To $170 Million In A Few Months: The Next "Subprime Trade" Emerges.
• Why Did The Pentagon Falsify Reports About Military Successes In Fight Against ISIS?
• Earnings Revisions Tumble To Weakest In 9 Months, BofAML Warns "More To Come". (graph)
• What Does The Future Hold For Negative Rates In Europe? Goldman Answers.
• The Incredible Shrinking Benefits Of Massive Japanese Money Printing. (graph)
• "Tread Lightly" - 2016 Technical Outlook. (graph)
• 2016's Planet Of The Aches. 
• 2015 Year In Review: "Terminal Phase" Excess & Peak Cognitive Dissonance.
• Noble Group’s(NE) "Collateral Margin Call".
• Kyle Bass Suffers "Worst Year In The Last Ten", Reveals His Best Investment For The Next "3-5 Years".
• A "Witch's Brew" Bubbling In Bond ETFs. (graph)

Business Insider:

• It's 'hell': How ISIS prevents people from fleeing its 'caliphate'.
• These 6 compelling charts make the case for a stock market correction in 2016. (graph)
• Tesla(TSLA) has something alarming in common with another car company.
• If you're in the stock market, beware January.
• Russia and Ukraine's full-blown economic war just got worse.
• BP(BP) chief warns that oil producers could suffer even more in 2016.
• Putin names US as a threat to national security for the first time.

ABC News: 

• Mexico Mayor Slain a Day After Taking Office.

Telegraph: 

• Another Lehman collapse is the biggest threat we face. Our big banks, still largely unreformed since the financial crisis in 2008, remain too-big-to-fail.

theguardian: 

• Terror threats will be the new normal for Europe, experts say. Analysts believe there will be more security alerts and cancellations of major events after Paris attacks.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,043.94 -1.0%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Tech/Drug Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.88 +3.41%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.58 -.81%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.38 -.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.34 +.66%

• ISE Sentiment Index 58.0 -22.67%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +7.07%

• NYSE Arms .98 -65.83% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.39 +.14%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,703.0 +.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.90 -.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.28 -3.84%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.61 +2.97%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 358.95 +.68%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.77 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 46.50 +6.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% +3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 122.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $43.57/Metric Tonne +.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.8 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.90 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% +2.0 basis points
• 50.8% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 56.3% chance at April 27 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -222 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long