Sunday, January 10, 2016

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as commodity weakness, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and emerging market currency worries offset bargain-hunting, technical buying and central bank hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Stocks Tumble, Cap Worst Five-Day Start to Year on Record. (video) U.S. stocks tumbled in a late-afternoon selloff that sent major equity indexes to their worst weekly declines in more than four years, as investors found little relief in moves by China to restore calm to its sinking markets and data that showed resilience in the U.S labor market. Bank stocks led the late slide, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. falling at least 2.2 percent to cap the week with drops of nearly 11 percent. Energy shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.3 percent to press deeper into five-year lows. Seven of the benchmark’s 10 main industries sank more than 5.5 percent this week in the gauge’s worst five-day start to a year in data going back to 1928. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1 percent to 1,922.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, and fell 6 percent for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 167.65 points, or 1 percent, to 16,346.45. The index lost more than 1,000 points this week in its worst opening five-days to a year ever. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1 percent, stretching its losing streak to seven days, the longest since 2011. “When investors saw there was no traction and the market was unable to hold rallies over several attempts throughout the day, it just became fear of going into the weekend,” said Gene Peroni, a fund manager at Advisors Asset Management Inc. in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. “The market has just been so reactive to news, people will wait on the sidelines and see what the weekend brings. It has been a rough week.”
  • World's Richest Lose $194 Billion In First Trading Week of 2016. The world’s 400 richest people lost almost $194 billion this week as world stock markets began the year with a shudder on poor economic data in China and falling oil prices. Forty-seven billionaires lost $1 billion or more during the worst week for U.S. stocks since 2011, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The combined drop was almost seven times the $29 billion lost in the first five trading days of 2015. The 400 people on the index had a combined $3.7 trillion at the end of the week, compared with more than $4 trillion a year ago.
  • Credit Market's Fear Gauge Jumps to 3-Year High on China, Oil. The cost to protect against defaults by North American investment-grade companies rose to the highest level in three years amid a new year’s equities rout triggered by the latest cracks in China’s financial market. The end cost for high-yield debt approached a three-year high as concern grew that the selloff in Chinese capital markets will weigh on a global economy already reeling from an extended commodities slump. “The year has gotten off to a terrible start," said Martin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC in New York. "The high-yield market, like equities, is being affected by the oil prices and the slowdown in China. The connection with China is more indirect, but clearly it’s affecting the overall market." The risk premium on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which is composed of 125 equally weighted credit-default swaps on investment grade entities, soared 10.4 basis points this week to 98.65 basis points in New York. That’s the highest level since December 2012. A similar benchmark for junk debt jumped 52.36 basis points this week to 522.27 basis points, compared with 522.76 basis points on Dec. 11 that was the most since December 2012. "People are concerned about headline risk," said Ken Monaghan, the head of global high yield at Amundi Smith Bredeen. "They’re wondering about the extent to which the moves in the market will influence fundamentals, just because it can really change people’s willingness to take risk."
  • China's Factory-Gate Deflation Extends Record Stretch. China’s consumer inflation remained muted while factory-gate prices fell more than forecast as weakening domestic demand dimmed the outlook for growth. The consumer-price index rose 1.6 percent in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday, compared with a 1.6 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and 1.5 percent in November. The producer-price index fell 5.9 percent, compared to a projected 5.8 percent drop, extending declines to a record 46 months"We believe that China’s inflation will continue to slide and the CPI could fall further" to around 1 percent in 2016, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. economists led by Liu Ligang wrote in a report ahead of the data.
  • China's Currency But Emerging-Market Peers' Problem: New Yuan. In an echo of the Nixon administration’s missive when a depreciating U.S. currency was roiling its trading partners, the yuan may be China’s currency but it’s increasingly the problem of others -- and especially its emerging-market peers. Smaller developing economies are struggling to cope with China’s decision to weaken the yuan, with Mexico warning of the risk of competitive devaluations and Thailand saying its exports will be affected. In Indonesia, where the central bank had seen room last month to cut borrowing costs, its governor says it’s prioritizing stability when setting rates and monitoring global developments. “Emerging markets can’t decouple from what is happening in China,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, head of Asia emerging-market currency strategy at JPMorgan Chase in Singapore. “The parts of China that matter for most other emerging economies are still quite weak, and in a backdrop of a weakening currency, it will weigh on sentiment elsewhere.”
  • Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Yen for First Time Since October 2012. Hedge funds and other large speculators are bullish on the yen for the first time in more than three years. Positions that profit from yen gains against the dollar outnumbered bearish positions by a net 4,103 contracts in the week to Jan. 5, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the first time since October 2012 the data haven’t shown net short positions. "Dollar-yen has plunged on yen safe haven flows in the midst of turmoil in the global equity markets, and could fall further if China’s financial/economic woes continue to weigh on the markets," said Matt Weller, an analyst at Gain Capital Holdings Inc.’s Forex.com unit in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
  • Tensions High on Korean Border as North Raises Threat of War. Tensions remained high on the fortified border dividing North and South Korea as the resumption of propaganda broadcasts prompted Pyongyang to raise the risk of war, overshadowing diplomatic efforts to respond to North Korea’s surprise nuclear test. South Korea turned on the powerful loudspeakers on Friday in retaliation for the nuclear test conducted on Wednesday. The South Korean military also fortified its positions near the huge banks of loudspeakers that can broadcast miles into North Korea. The broadcasts risk pushing the two sides “toward the brink of war,” Yonhap News cited North Korean Workers’ Party Secretary Kim Ki Nam as saying at a rally in Pyongyang.
  • Gulf States Urge Action Against Iran to Prevent Terror Acts. The GCC, whose members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, “calls upon the international community to take serious measures against Iran to prevent repetition of such attack on diplomatic missions in the future,” Abdul Latif Al Zayani, the secretary-general of the council, told reporters in Riyadh Saturday after a meeting of its foreign-affairs ministers. It “welcomes the strong rejection of Iran’s actions against Saudi Arabia from neighboring Arab and Islamic countries.”
  • Humana(HUM) to Record 2016 Obamacare Shortfall, Membership Drops. Humana Inc. is the latest insurer to run into trouble in Obamacare’s individual health-insurance markets. The health insurer said that it probably won’t collect enough money to cover costs for some customers who bought individual plans, and will set aside what’s known as a premium deficiency reserve. The shortfall is for 2016 plans that comply with new rules under the Affordable Care Act, Louisville, Kentucky-based Humana said Friday. UnitedHealth Group Inc., the biggest U.S. health insurer, said in November that it might stop participating in the Obamacare next year after taking losses. One analyst predicted that Humana would follow suit.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Suspect in Philadelphia Police Shooting Had Visited Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Authorities try to determine if man has terrorist connections and whether his overseas travel is significant to investigation. The man arrested for allegedly shooting a Philadelphia police officer three times in a late-night ambush traveled to Saudi Arabia in late 2011 and to Egypt in 2012, according to a person familiar with the matter.
  • Saudi Arabia Steps Up War of Words With Iran. Kingdom’s execution of Shiite cleric Nemer al-Nemer has inflamed tensions. Saudi Arabia on Saturday accused Iran of not acting like a nation state and said it is considering further measures against its regional rival, as tensions between the two countries escalated further over the kingdom’s execution of a dissident Shiite cleric.
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (HBI), (DECK), (AAPL), (INTC), (MRK), (DOW), (JPM), (C), (BAC), (GS), (SLB), (XOM), (EOG) and (NFX).
  • Had bearish commentary on .
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
  • Protests in Cologne after assaults; Merkel pledges new laws. Women's rights activists, far-right demonstrators and leftwing counter-protesters took to the streets of Cologne on Saturday to voice their opinions in the debate that has followed a string of New Year's Eve sexual assaults and robberies blamed largely on foreigners. Amid the heightened public pressure, Chancellor Angela Merkel's party proposed stricter laws regulating asylum-seekers in the country -- some 1.1 million of whom arrived last year. Police said that around 1,700 protesters from the anti-Islam PEGIDA movement were kept apart from 1,300 counter-demonstrators in simultaneous protests outside the city's main train station.
  • Sanders calls Bill Clinton's affair 'totally disgraceful and unacceptable'. (video) Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said Friday night that former President Bill Clinton, now stumping on the campaign trail for wife Hillary Clinton, committed a “totally disgraceful” act in having an affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. Sanders’ remark was in response to a question at an Iowa town hall meeting, not part of a speech. However, the Vermont senator had until this point in the primary season largely avoided saying anything negative related to the front-running Hillary Clinton, expect to attack her on policy issues.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • China is going back in time. China is about to go back nearly 40 years in time, one of the most in-demand analysts on the country says. Charlene Chu at Autonomous Research published a prediction this week that secondary-industry output — think production and construction — could contract in 2016. That would be the first reduction on record since 1978.
Reuters:
  • Thermo Fisher to buy Affymetrix for $1.3 billion. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), the world's largest maker of scientific instruments, said it agreed to buy Affymetrix Inc (AFFX) for $1.3 billion in cash, beefing up its genetic analysis products business. Thermo Fisher's offer of $14 per share represents a rich 52 percent premium to Affymetrix's Friday close of $9.21. Affymetrix shares were trading at $13.70 after market, while Thermo Fisher was unchanged.
Financial Times:
Telegraph:
Spiegel:
  • Germany Sees 1M Refugees Trying to Cross Turkey in 2016. One million refugees to try to pass through Turkey on their way to Europe this year, citing German Deputy Interior Minister Ole Schroeder. Says Turkey may be able to hold back and accommodate 200,000 of them at best.
South China Morning Post:

Friday, January 08, 2016

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,922.03 -5.96%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,922.03 -5.96%
  • DJIA 17,425.03 -6.19%
  • NASDAQ 4,643.63 -7.26%
  • Russell 2000 1,046.20 -7.89%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 26.45 -9.67%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 94.12 -8.85% 
  • Wilshire 5000 19,794.61 -6.19%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 939.64 -6.05%
  • Russell 1000 Value 906.48 -6.03%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 503.22 -2.93%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 114.23 -7.51%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,002.14 -7.50%
  • Transports 6,946.36 -7.48%
  • Utilities 578.82 +.17%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 90.46 -8.62%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 32.42 -1.21%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,133.78 -1.96%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,037.36 -.44%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,596 -1.91%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,493 -1,081
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.7 -50.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 184,177 -6.20%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,703,201 +3.29%
  • Total Put/Call 1.34 +32.67%
  • OEX Put/Call .43 -79.33%
  • ISE Sentiment 50.0 -33.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.70 +35.43%
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.37 +43.88%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.67 +7.81%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.89 +7.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.93 +4.56%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,608.65 -.70%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.735 Trillion -.88%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.925 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 22.2 -11.6%
  • AAII % Bears 38.3 +62.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 168.57 -4.30%
  • Crude Oil 32.91 -11.17%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 112.51 -11.29%
  • Natural Gas 2.48 +5.36%
  • Heating Oil 104.49 -4.96%
  • Gold 1,103.40 +4.0%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 131.69 -4.43%
  • Copper 201.60 -5.53%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 142.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 42.13 USD/Ton -3.31%
  • Lumber 247.10 -4.52%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,027.28 -1.47%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.4% -50.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0034 +149.27%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.82 +.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.30 +10.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.50 +10.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.10 -11.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 92.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 1/27
  • US Dollar Index 98.44 -.21%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,432.73 -1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.12 -1.78%
  • Yield Curve 118.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.11% -16.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.448 Trillion n/a
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.29 +5.45%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 292.0 +2.32%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 17.17 +6.02%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 76.31 +5.3%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 195.98 +6.63%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.50 +7.46%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 951.72 +2.23%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 335.12 +8.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 123.60 -.16%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% -8.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.25 -4.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 96.35 +8.92%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,583.0 -6.37%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 80.80 +5.21%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 374.69 +4.80%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 140.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.077 Trillion -.24%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,081.30 +2.4%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 275,750 -1,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.97% -4.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 328.60 -11.57%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.2 +.6 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.20% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $1.99/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 445.0 -6.90%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 734.95 +1.62%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 +14.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 187,920 +2.02%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -5.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -8.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +3.7%
  • Utilities +.3%
  • Coal -1.8%
  • Tobacco -2.1%
  • REITs -2.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Biotech -10.1% 
  • Gaming -11.2%
  • Steel -11.2%
  • Homebuilding -12.0%
  • Oil Tankers -13.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • DVAX, MCRN, NLS, TDOC, CHUY and MSM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
  • NTK, HLF, OCFC, BRKR, APPF, SONC, VWR, ARRS, HF, CALD, FOSL, GIMO, CFMS, SYNA, PAG, AN, SRI, KBH, ACAD, NHTC, FIT, XLRN and EPZM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change