Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,864.78 -.81%

• DJIA 15,973.84 -1.43%

• NASDAQ 4,337.51 -.59%

• Russell 2000 971.99 -1.38%

• S&P 500 High Beta 24.02 -3.22%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 81.69 -3.51% 

• Wilshire 5000 19,029.42 -1.03%

• Russell 1000 Growth 901.50 -.61%

• Russell 1000 Value 878.97 -1.41%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 513.07 +.8%

• Solactive US Cyclical 112.16 -.5%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 898.13 -1.68%

• Transports 7,048.69 +1.53%

• Utilities 610.87 -2.20%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.73 -5.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 29.12 -2.81%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,056.94 -3.25%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,014.51 -1.61%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 217,761 -2.89%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,450 -1,134

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.68 -42.29%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 187,877 -4.57%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,854,379 -.07%

• Total Put/Call .89 -6.19%

• OEX Put/Call 2.21 +68.94%

• ISE Sentiment 121.0 +128.57%

• NYSE Arms .67 -34.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 25.39 +9.38%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.0 +3.50%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.89 +14.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 13.37 +6.20%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,493.29 -.83%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.755 Trillion +.11%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$2.313 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 19.2 -30.2%

• AAII % Bears 48.7 +40.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 160.36 -.97%

• Crude Oil 28.97 -5.80%

• Reformulated Gasoline 103.24 +5.05%

• Natural Gas 1.97 -4.75%

• Heating Oil 105.44 -.53%

• Gold 1,239.90 +5.51%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 135.33 -2.56%

• Copper 203.35 -2.53%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 167.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 43.65 USD/Ton -4.55%

• Lumber 246.50 -1.63%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,004.02 -.76%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.6% -30.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1528 +12.18%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.08 -.10%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -48.30 +7.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.50 -10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 +2.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 96.0 -1.0%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,436.70 -.28%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.23 -2.21%

• Yield Curve 104.0 -9.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.73% -12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.447 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.46 +1.90%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 366.0 +22.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.0 +26.55%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 83.45 +3.93%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 195.60 -.22%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.87 +7.28%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,281.81 +20.7%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 354.45 +4.71%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 122.72 -.09%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.27% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 33.75 +.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 122.05 +9.1%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 2,372.0 +16.72%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 128.40 +9.59%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 397.65 +4.70%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 170.0+10.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.050 Trillion -1.71%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,077.0 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 281,250 -3,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.65% -7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 503.60 +9.34%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.5 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.60% -60.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $1.70/gallon -.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 290.0 -2.36%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 772.27 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%

• Rail Freight Carloads 262,830 -.36%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -2.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +9.2%

• Airlines +4.9%

• Gaming +4.6%

• Road & Rail +2.5%

• Internet +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -5.9% 

• Computer Hardware -6.3%

• Hospitals -6.3%

• Alt Energy -6.8%

• Coal -14.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• MFLX, SUPN, TFM, UBNT, EDE, AKAM and OMI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (41)

• SFM, QTWO, CRM, BLKB, HBI, EEFT, NWS, AIZ, EPAM, TDG, BRX, IFF, MKTO, QLYS, HUBS, CVT, W, USNA, DXCM, CSOD, OUTR, MDSO, NEWR, PAYC, GWRE, RNG, YELP, NILE, VIA, ZEN, HCP, LGF, LABL, ESL, STRZA, DWRE, SPLK, BRS, SCTY, LNKD and DATA

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Oil Bounce, Commodity/Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.04 -7.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.25 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.39 +.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.20 +1.10%

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +78.67%

• Total Put/Call .89 -6.32%

• NYSE Arms .75 -21.30% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 123.16 -1.21%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,371.0 +4.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 127.33 -8.48%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.51 -8.50%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.47 -3.54%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 397.77 -3.86%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.72 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 33.75 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 +2.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.37 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.

• Yield Curve 106.0 +7.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $43.65/Metric Tonne -3.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -48.3 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.80 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.27% +7.0 basis points
• 3.9% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 7.7% chance at June 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +523 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.5% 2) I-Banks -.2% 3) Education -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SCSS, SSNC, LPLA, NUS, LOGM, NUVA, QLIK, LXFT, ZAYO, EGN, Z, IMOS, PRI, ATVI, CYBR, NXTM, ZG, LB, KN, INGR, CPN, IPGP, FEYE, CRAY, GPI, TRIP, BKD, XRAY and FLO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLF 2) ADSK 3) EWZ 4) JCP 5) NVDA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FLO 2) POT 3) BHI 4) BA 5) LPLA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 

• Large-Cap Value +1.7% 

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +8.4% 2) Banks +4.8% 3) Steel +3.8% 
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• ELLI, COLM, DB, TOT, ICPT, AXL, WYNN, BG, BRS, BAC, CAVM, WEB, DNB, JPM, ITT, ALNY, MGM, OMF, RRGB, PACW and PNRA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) AMJ 2) CPN 3) CLF 4) P 5) YUM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) KR 2) VRSN 3) COLM 4) SQ 5) VAC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 77.1% of Issues Advancing, 21.8% Declining
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 113 New Lows
• 16.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.7%
• Vix 26.0 -7.7%
• Total Put/Call .90 -5.3%
• TRIN/Arms .81 -14.8%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Global Assault on Banks Intensifies as Investors Punish Weakness. Credit Suisse Group AG shares plunged to the lowest in a generation and a one-year contract to insure Deutsche Bank AG debt against default surged to a record as a global rout in financial companies intensified. Theories abound as to what lies behind the selloff, with some traders fretting over falling oil prices, China’s slowing economy and negative interest rates. A pullback by some sovereign-wealth funds has also been blamed for lower asset prices. Whatever the cause, the hammering has been the worst in Europe, where concerns persist about the health of some of the biggest banks eight years after the financial crisis. “The market is aggressively penalizing banks,” said Nikhil Srinivasan, who oversees 480 billion euros ($543 billion) as chief investment officer at Assicurazioni Generali SpA in Milan. “It’s going to be a challenging 2016, and I don’t see a short tunnel -- this could go on for a while.”

• South Korea Halts Small-Cap Equity Trading After Index Sinks 8%. Trading in South Korea’s Kosdaq exchange for smaller stocks was temporarily halted after the benchmark gauge plunged more than 8 percent. Trading was suspended for 20 minutes at 11:55 a.m. in Seoul after the measure dropped 8.2 percent. A loss of 15 percent would trigger another halt of 20 minutes, while a drop of 20 percent would stop trading for the rest of the day, according to the bourse. The decline is the biggest since December 2011. The Kospi gauge of larger companies slid 2.1 percent. 

• Could China's Policy Foil MSCI Bid? (video)

• Japan Stock Rout Is Catching China's With Shanghai Shut: Chart.

• Yen's Biggest Two-Week Rally Since 1998 Fuels Intervention Fears. The yen is poised for its biggest two-week advance versus the dollar since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, intensifying speculation the Bank of Japan may intervene to weaken it. Japan’s currency has strengthened against all its 31 major peers since Jan. 29 amid demand for haven assets. Government officials expressed concern at the moves, fueling speculation Japan may intervene to halt gains that imperil the economy through disinflation and lower profits for exporters. Finance Minister Taro Aso said Friday that the authorities will respond to markets appropriately, if necessary, as recent movements in the yen have been rough. The currency briefly surged past 111 per dollar Thursday. “The verbal intervention has already started, with MOF officials talking about moves being rough, which looks like the new code word for undesired strength,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, referring to the Ministry of Finance. “110 might be some line in the sand when the MOF will lean on the BOJ to shore things up.”

• Asian Stocks Extend World Rout Amid Rising Yen While Oil Rallies. The global equity bear market deepened in Asian trading, with Japanese stocks headed for their worst week since 2008 as anxiety over central banks’ ability to revive the world economy fueled a rally in the yen. Oil rebounded from a 12-year low. The Topix index slumped 5.5 percent in Tokyo as traders returned from holiday, pushing the regional Asian benchmark toward its steepest weekly drop since gyrations in Chinese assets at the start of the year. U.S. index futures were steady after losses there helped the MSCI All-Country Index cap a 20 percent slide from its May record. The yen was set for its strongest two-week advance since 1998. U.S. crude rose from a 12-year low. The MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index was down 2.7 percent as of 11:29 a.m. Tokyo time, on track for a weekly decline of 5.9 percent. The Topix has lost 12.7 percent this week, the most since October 2008. While Japan resumed trading after a Thursday break, markets in mainland China, Taiwan and Vietnam remain closed for Lunar New Year holidays.

• The Shipping Industry Is Suffering From China’s Trade Slowdown. So many boats, so little cargo as Chinese exports and imports drop. When business slows and owners of ships and offshore oil rigs need a place to store their unneeded vessels, Saravanan Krishna suddenly becomes one of the industry’s most popular executives. Krishna is the operation director of International Shipcare, a Malaysian company that mothballs ships and rigs, and these days he’s busy taking calls from beleaguered operators with excess capacity. There are 102 vessels laid up at the company’s berths off the Malaysian island of Labuan, more than double the number a year ago. More are on the way. “There’s a huge demand,” he says. “People are calling us not to lay up one ship but 15 or 20.”
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession. While many economic indicators aren’t flashing concern, the global financial turmoil could cause a slowdown. Is the U.S. headed for recession? The markets suggest so. With Thursday’s selloff, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down 14.5% from its all-time high last May. Yields on risky bonds continue to climb, while investors have sought safety in U.S. Treasurys, sending those yields lower. And oil has hit a nearly 12½-year low. Yet the...

• More Cuts Loom as Oil Nears $25. U.S., Canadian producers are losing at least $350 million a day at current prices. As crude prices slide toward $25 a barrel, many oil companies have little choice but to start making the steep cost cuts they have avoided up until now, jettisoning every well that can’t break even or isn’t needed to keep the lights on.

• How Sanders Exposed Clinton. Hillary was ‘tough’ and ‘masterful’—until Bernie whispered what was obvious. Democrats awoke Wednesday with a thought usually reserved for Republicans: Hillary Clinton is a disaster. The marvel is that she fooled them for so long.

Fox News: 

• Dem Debate: Clinton, Sanders clash over Wall Street ties. Bernie Sanders clashed with Hillary Clinton at Thursday’s Democratic debate over Clinton’s Wall Street ties, once again suggesting that the financial sector’s big donations are meant to buy influence. “Let’s not insult the intelligence of the American people. People aren’t dumb,” Sanders said. “Why in God’s name does Wall Street make huge campaign contributions? I guess just for the fun of it." They sparred on the issue as Sanders touted the fact he’s “the only candidate up here” who has no super PAC supporting him. A super PAC backing Clinton, he said, recently raised $15 million from Wall Street. Clinton countered by noting that President Obama took Wall Street donations too, but “when it mattered, he stood up and took on Wall Street.”

Zero Hedge:

• Crushing The "Oil's Just A Supply Issue" Meme In 1 Painful Chart. (graph)

• Abewrongics - 16 Months Of Japanese Money-Printing For Nothing. (graph)

• Is This The Biggest Crisis In History? (graph) 

• America's National Debt Bomb Caused By The Welfare State. 

• Millennials Now Prefer Socialism To Capitalism. (graph)

• Through The Looking Glass On Rates.

• Putting It All Together: When Does The Junk Bond Sell Off End, And When Should One Buy.

• Jeff Gundlach: Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central Banks Is Lost.

• "Billions Lost". (graph)

• This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part 3).

• It Was Never About Oil, Part 2: It Was Always Leverage & Volatility.

• Oil Headline Rescues Stocks From Bloodbath As Precious Metals Soar. (graph)
  

Business Insider: 

• Bernie Sanders jabs at Hillary Clinton: 'You're not in the White House yet'.

• Jamie Dimon just dropped $26 million on JPMorgan(JPM) shares.

• New Ted Cruz ad savages Donald Trump as 'sleaze'. (video)

• IT'S OFFICIAL: Global stocks are in a bear market.

• Cracks in the global economy are making the oil glut worse.

Telegraph:

• Is the sovereign debt crisis coming back to haunt Europe? "It is only the ECB that is holding Europe together. If the ECB was to step back you would have a massive sovereign debt crisis".

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 177.25 +8.0 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.5 +3.25 basis points. 

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.19 -.03%. 

• S&P 500 futures +.45%. 

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (AXL)/.68

• (IPG)/.62 

• (CPN)/-.06 

• (ITT)/.55 

• (LPNT)/1.05 

• (RRGB)/.82 

• (RUTH)/.25 

• (ZAYO)/.03

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for January are estimated to fall -1.5% versus a -1.2% decline in December.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for January are estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in December. 

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for January are estimated unch. versus a -.1% decline in December. 

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for January are estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Decmeber.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for December are estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in November.

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for February is estimated to rise to 92.3 versus 92.0 in January.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kaplan speaking and the Eurozone GDP report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.