Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Japan's Exports Drop Most Since 2009 as Sales to China Fall. Japan’s exports fell for a fourth consecutive month and dropped the most since 2009, underscoring continued weakness in an economy that contracted in the final months of 2015. Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, were down almost 18 percent, driving an overall decline of nearly 13 percent in the value of overseas shipments in January from a year earlier. Imports dropped 18 percent, leaving a 645.9 billion yen ($5.7 billion) trade deficit, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday. Falling exports compound poor sentiment in Japan, where wage gains have stagnated, consumer prices are barely rising and households are reluctant to spend. “The environment for Japanese exports is looking bad as Japanese companies shift production abroad, the global economy slows and the yen strengthens,” said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It’s becoming clear that that there is no driver to support Japan’s economy.”
  • Australian Unemployment Spikes to 6% as Full-Time Jobs Plunge. (video) Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed in January as full-time employment slumped by the most since 2013, reflecting waning stimulus from record-low interest rates and a weaker currency. The local dollar fell about one-third of a U.S. cent.
  • Iran's Cool Embrace of Oil Pact Raises Doubts on Supply Freeze. Iran’s qualified backing of an accord led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to cap output sowed doubts that the agreement can succeed in tempering a record global surplus. After talks with fellow OPEC members Qatar, Iraq and Venezuela in Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh expressed support for the output freeze without committing to restrain the nation’s own production, according to a report from oil ministry news service Shana. The country has signaled it plans to increase exports this year following the removal of international sanctions last month.  
  • Asian Stocks Expand Global Rebound as Oil Rallies; Aussie Slips. Asian stocks joined the global recovery as crude oil’s return to levels last seen at the start of February bolstered sentiment. Australia’s dollar fell amid weak jobs data, while emerging-market currencies rallied. Japanese equities wiped out last session’s retreat, and U.S. index futures climbed with Australian and South Korean shares as crude rose with Iran backing a freeze in output from key energy producing nations. The Malaysian ringgit and won rebounded, while the Indonesian rupiah snapped a two-day drop even as economists predicted interest rates there will be cut Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.1 percent as of 10:41 a.m. Tokyo time. Japan’s Topix index rallied 2.5 percent, after slipping 1.1 percent last session. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Overproduction Swamps Smaller Chinese Cities, Revealing Depth of Crisis. Beijing had hoped small cities like Suizhou would help drive the expansion of the middle class and sustain economic growth. Even in China’s remotest places, relentless overproduction—here it is mushrooms and cement trucks—is clouding the country’s path to prosperity and jolting the global economy. When 48-year-old farmer Yang Qun began trading at Suizhou’s bustling morning mushroom market a half decade ago, the fungus industry was expanding, even attracting a rural lending arm of British financial giant HSBC Holdings PLC. Ms. Yang saved...
  • U.S. and Apple(AAPL) Dig In for Court Fight Over Encryption. Company refuses to retrieve data from phone of one of San Bernardino killers. Washington and Silicon Valley geared up Wednesday for a high-stakes legal battle over a phone used by one of the San Bernardino, Calif., terrorists, a contest each side views as a must-win in their long fight over security versus privacy.
  • Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War. There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims. Donald Trump went loony-left during last Saturday’s GOP debate in South Carolina. In a heated moment the reality TV celebrity told the crowd that President George W. Bush had “lied” about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. This wasn’t the first time that Mr. Trump went off the deep end as a candidate. In October he blamed President Bush for the Sept. 11 attacks, telling CNN: “They knew an attack was coming. George Tenet, the CIA director, knew in advance there was going to be an attack...
Fox News:
  • Cruz dares Trump to sue him over abortion ad, vows to run it 'more frequently'. (video) Ted Cruz is daring Donald Trump to sue him over an ad running in South Carolina that questions his record on abortion, rejecting the billionaire businessman’s complaints and vowing instead to run the ad “more frequently” because voters “deserve to know the truth." "You have been threatening frivolous lawsuits for your entire adult life," Cruz said Wednesday. "Even in the annals of frivolous lawsuits, this takes the cake." The Cruz campaign adamantly defended the ad after the Trump campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding the campaign stop running it.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
  • Trump falls to second in national GOP race: NBC/WSJ poll. (video) Ted Cruz has inched ahead of Donald Trump among Republican voters nationally, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. In the survey — which contrasts sharply with other national polls — Cruz draws 28 percent, narrowly leading Trump at 26 percent. Trailing behind are Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent. The poll, taken after Trump's New Hampshire primary win and after a raucous GOP debate in which he bitterly criticized former President George W. Bush, diverged sharply from last month's NBC/WSJ survey in which Trump led Cruz by 33 percent to 20 percent.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • NetApp(NTAP) revenue misses estimates; to cut jobs. NetApp Inc, a data storage equipment maker, reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, hurt by weak demand for its storage products, and said it would cut about 12 percent of its workforce. Shares of the company, which also forecast fourth-quarter earnings well below analysts' estimates, were down 2.8 percent at $22.90 in extended trading.
  • CF Industries(CF) profit misses estimates as prices weaken. U.S. nitrogen fertilizer producer CF Industries Holdings Inc reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit, hurt by weakening prices and higher costs. Fertilizer prices have plunged amid soft grain prices and excessive global production. The average selling price for ammonia fell about 18 percent to $458 per ton in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, while the price of UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) fell 12.5 percent to $230 per ton, the company said.
Telegraph:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.5 -3.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 77.5 -1.5 basis points. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.74 +.1%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (AAN)/.38
  • (CAB)/1.21
  • (DNR)/.02
  • (DISCA)/.45
  • (DISH)/.12
  • (DUK)/.92
  • (H)/.24
  • (LH)/2.00
  • (MGM)/.09
  • (POOL)/-.01
  • (RS)/.82
  • (SODA)/.17
  • (HOT)/.79
  • (TK)/.13
  • (WMT)/1.43
  • (CRMT)/.50
  • (AMAT)/.25
  • (CENX)/-.57
  • (FLS)/.91
  • (FLR)/.93
  • (MRVL)/.10
  • (JWN)/1.25
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for February is estimated to rise to -3.0 versus -3.5 in January.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 275K versus 269K prior.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2250K versus 2239K prior.    
10:00 am EST
  • 4Q Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures.
  • The Leading Index for January is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.2% decline in December.  
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Eurozone Current Account, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for February, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (MTW) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Less Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.5 -6.35%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.50 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.74 -.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.43 -.83%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -43.45%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 +21.51%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -7.78
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 117.26 -3.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,294.0 -1.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 113.0 -7.57%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.82 +7.2%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.75 -1.68%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 379.42 -2.90%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.10 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 32.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.63 +.78%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 107.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $46.35/Metric Tonne -.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.4 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.10 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.1 -2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.29% +3.0 basis points
  • 9.8% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 18.8% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +225 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China Debt Binge Spurs S&P Warning as Magnus Sees `Big Problems'. China’s unprecedented jump in new loans at the start of 2016 is fueling concern that excessive credit growth is piling up risks in the nation’s financial system. The increase in China’s debt relative to gross domestic product could pressure the country’s credit rating, Standard & Poor’s said on Tuesday, less than a week after the cost to insure Chinese bonds against default rose to a four-year high. Credit growth is storing up “big problems” in the economy that will weigh on the yuan and stocks, said George Magnus, an economic adviser to UBS Group AG. Mizuho Bank Ltd. warned that the threat of bad loans is rising and Marketfield Asset Management said China’s central bank may be losing its regulatory grip on credit growth. The jump in credit growth “may help to sustain the pace of economic momentum in the short term, but it’s storing up big problems,” said Magnus, a senior independent economic adviser to UBS who correctly predicted in July that the rout in Chinese stocks would deepen. “I’m not anticipating an imminent meltdown, but we’ve got a lot of warnings going on that should make us cautious about how we see the situation developing for the course of this year.” China’s ratio of corporate and household borrowing versus gross domestic product rose to 209 percent at the end of 2015, the highest level since Bloomberg Intelligence began compiling the data in 2003. Nonperforming loans increased 7 percent in the fourth quarter to 1.27 trillion yuan, data from the China Banking Regulatory Commission showed Monday.
  • China's Missile Move Sparks New Questions Over South China. China sparked new questions about its intentions in the South China Sea after it deployed surface-to-air missiles to a contested island, a move that came just months after President Xi Jinping promised not to militarize the disputed atolls. Satellite images showed two batteries of eight HQ-9 surface-to-air missile launchers and a radar system were deployed on Woody Island sometime after Feb. 3, Fox News reported. That’s just days after the U.S. rebuffed China’s efforts to control one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes by sending a warship into the area. The positioning of the missiles casts further doubt on Xi’s pledge at a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington in late September not to militarize the islands and suggests China is prepared to escalate tensions in order defend its claims, particularly with a ruling expected this year on an arbitration case brought by the Philippines to an international tribunal.
  • Hong Kong Retailers Suffer From Slump in Chinese New Year Sales. Hong Kong retailers Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. and Sa Sa International Holdings Ltd. reported slumping sales over Chinese New Year as the number of mainland tourist visitors tumbled. Same-store sales over Jan. 25-Feb. 14 was 28 percent lower than the new-year period in 2015, Chow Tai Fook said in a Hong Kong exchange statement on Wednesday, as it warned of a worse performance in the current quarter compared with the previous one. Sa Sa reported a 19 percent decline in sales as the number of transactions by Chinese tourists sank 18 percent, according to a separate statement.
  • Portugal Shows QE Limit as Neighbors' Bonds Leave It Behind. (graph) Portugal just can’t shake off its bears. The nation’s notes are underperforming their counterparts across the euro area even as a recovery in stocks and oil prices boosted demand for higher-yielding assets. The extra yield, or spread, that investors get for holding Portuguese two-year debt instead of similar-maturity notes of Germany climbed for a second day. The country’s yields are more than 1 percentage point higher than those in neighboring Spain, whose leaders have been unable to form a government after inconclusive elections in December. 
  • Prada Revenue Growth Evaporates as Luxury-Goods Maker Struggles. The luxury-goods maker had to contend with “extreme volatility” in currency markets, and “a deteriorating geopolitical situation in many world regions,” Chief Executive Officer Patrizio Bertelli said in a statement. “These two factors have made prices fluctuate wildly and diverted tourist traffic in sudden and unpredictable ways.”Collapsing demand in China, the strong dollar and the Paris terror attacks made 2015 a year to forget for the luxury-goods industry and for Prada more than most.
  • Brazil's Credit Rating Cut Further Into Junk Territory by S&P. Brazil’s debt rating was cut deeper into junk territory by Standard & Poor’s, which cited fiscal and political challenges for Latin America’s largest economy. The long-term foreign currency rating was reduced one level to BB with a negative outlook, S&P said in a statement Wednesday. The new level, two steps below investment grade, puts Brazil on par with countries including Bolivia, Paraguay and Guatemala.
  • Attack on Military Bus in Turkey Capital Kills at Least 18. A bomb targeting a Turkish military bus killed at least 18 people and injured dozens in the capital, Ankara, further roiling the country as it fights a Kurdish insurgency and faces a mounting threat from Islamic State. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for an attack that government spokesman Omer Celik called an act of terrorism. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who was to leave for Brussels on Wednesday night, postponed his trip, according to TGRT television.
  • Worst Earnings Letdown Since Crisis Add to Europe Stock Woes. (video) Europe’s earnings season is only half-way through, but so far even stable profit generators are showing signs of capitulation. Banks, industrial companies and even health-care companies are surprising the market with the widest earnings misses since even before the financial crisis. Analysts are dialing back their 2015 outlooks -- they see zero income growth for Stoxx Europe 600 Index members on average, down from an estimate of more than 4 percent three months ago. This echoes what has been the frustration of stock investors for most of the past five years: unlike in the U.S., Europe’s profits just aren’t growing. Analyst downgrades have outnumbered upgrades almost every week since 2011, according to a Citigroup Inc. index tracking such changes. And traders are losing faith in the global economic recovery, dumping growth-dependent shares for defensive stocks deemed more immune.
  • Miners Surge Into a Bull Market to Lead Europe's Stock Advance. A rally that pushed miners to a bull market sent European stocks to a two-week high. Commodity producers erased this year’s losses, up 28 percent from last month’s low, to lead the rebound in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which gained 2.6 percent at the close of trading. Glencore Plc rallied 17 percent after saying it signed new loan commitments.
  • Iran Backs Oil Producer Freeze Without Pledging Supply Curbs. Iran supported an accord by Saudi Arabia and Russia to steady global oil markets by capping their supply, without saying whether it would curb its own production. Iran backs any measures to stabilize markets including the output freeze agreed by the world’s two largest crude producers Tuesday, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after talks with fellow OPEC members Qatar, Iraq and Venezuela Wednesday, according to a report from Oil Ministry news service Shana. While Russia and Saudi Arabia said the deal hinges on cooperation from other major producers, Zanganeh didn’t comment on whether he would deviate from plans to boost production after international sanctions were removed last month.
  • Goldman's(GS) Head of Commodity Research Says the Saudi-Russia Oil Deal Won't Make A Difference. Would freezing production have an impact?
  • There's One Place Where OPEC Can't Broker an Oil Deal: Texas. Saudi Arabia and Russia have taken the first step to stem the slide in oil prices. There’s just one problem: If they are successful -- and that’s a big if -- the wildcatters of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota are waiting to pounce. With 4,000 wells drilled and just waiting for better prices to be brought on stream, the so-called fracklog could act as a cap to any oil rally, industry executives, traders and OPEC officials said. Worse, a price recovery could effectively bail out dozens of shale companies now struggling with $30-a-barrel oil, allowing them to return to the capital market. “If you think about making a production cut as OPEC, prices rise and these producers can get oil online in 80 days,” Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research, said on Bloomberg TV. “It makes any type of price rally self-defeating.”
  • Fed Frets Corporate Credit Crunch Will Crimp Economic Growth. Federal Reserve policy makers are beginning to worry that a corporate-credit squeeze will constrict the economic expansion. With banks tightening standards on business loans and investors demanding higher yields on some corporate debt, companies may find it harder and more expensive to raise the money they need to grow. The concern is that could prompt them to cut back on spending and hiring, hurting the U.S. economy in the process. 
  • AmEx Plans to Reduce Jobs in $1 Billion Cost-Cutting Effort. American Express Co. said it will eliminate jobs and reduce layers of management as the credit-card issuer seeks to cut $1 billion in costs over the next two years. “At this time, we do not know what the magnitude of those reductions will be, as decisions on specific positions affected are yet to be made,” Chief Executive Officer Ken Chenault said Wednesday in a statement.
Fox News:
  • Missing radioactive material in Iraq prompts nationwide search, ISIS fears. (video) A desperate hunt for “highly dangerous” radioactive material is on in Iraq, where officials fear it could be used to make a "dirty bomb" if in the hands of ISIS, according to a government official in Baghdad. The material, stored in a case the size of a laptop, disappeared from a storage facility near the southern city of Basra in November, Reuters reported. It was in the possession of Houston-based oil industry contractor Weatherford, according to a document obtained by the news agency. The document describes "the theft of a highly dangerous radioactive source of Ir-192 with highly radioactive activity belonging to SGS from a depot belonging to Weatherford in the Rafidhia area of Basra province."
Zero Hedge:
Washington Times:
  • Gov. Haley to endorse Rubio in South Carolina GOP primary: Report. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will endorse Sen. Marco Rubio in the GOP presidential battle, a state newspaper reported Wednesday, weighing in just as the primary has turned nasty. Ms. Haley is expected to endorse Mr. Rubio at a 6 p.m. event in Chapin, near the state capital, the Post and Courier reported.
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -.7% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Networking +.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CERN, IVC, DVN, WCIC, ATRO, CASY, BLMN, CLMT, LXFT, DIOD, IOSP, SCCO, KALU, ESND, MLNX, DPS, RGR, CPA, SCOR, WAGE, CTAS, GILD, PRE, MCD and VDSI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DG 2) DISH 3) XLY 4) EWJ 5) FL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GPC 2) CSX 3) RIG 4) QIWI 5) BAC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.9% 
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +4.0% 2) Energy +3.7% 3) Hospitals +3.4% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • FLXN, SHOP, FOSL, PBPB, GRMN, CXO, TRU, PCLN, DORM, FTI, TRGP, TEX, RRMS, FOSL, SCTY, CONN, IPXL, BKD, MDCO, FTI, PCLN, LXK, CAR, STMP, CXO, LL, CRM, IDTI, TEX and CRAY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) TMUS 2) ADT 3) FOSL 4) ABT 5) IDTI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) FOSL 2) NOC 3) A 4) HSTM 5) IPXL
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: