Thursday, February 18, 2016

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China Bears Say the Capital Outflow Is Just Beginning. Yuan bears say this month’s rally shouldn’t be taken as a sign China’s great reversal in capital flows has finished. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that any further shock depreciation will only accelerate the exit. Daiwa Capital Markets, which predicted the outflow risks back in 2014, says less than half of the $3 trillion of dollar debt that ended up in China has been repaid. Commerzbank AG said record new yuan loans in January showed companies are raising money to repay more debt abroad. Corporate bond sales onshore have more than doubled this year, as offshore issuance in the greenback dropped about 30 percent. Goldman Sachs says there have been $550 billion of outflows in the second half of 2015, and that every 1 percent yuan weakening risks $100 billion more. “We’re less than halfway done” in terms of carry trade unwinding, said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa. “My main focus is not about unwinding, but the reverse carry trade. People are taking fresh positions to sell the yuan. We’re talking about a massive deflationary scenario now, which is very bad for the market, economy, for everything.”
  • China Coal Producer Defaults on Convertible Bonds as Prices Sink. Up Energy Development Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed producer of coking coal with mines in China, has defaulted on convertible bonds, becoming the latest firm in the industry to renege on obligations after prices of the fuel plunged. The company failed to repay an unspecified amount of convertible notes by a Feb. 18 grace-period deadline after missing payment by the Jan. 18 maturity, according to a filing Friday. That gives holders of other debt totaling HK$3.46 billion ($444.8 million), including convertible securities due 2018, the right to demand immediate repayment under a cross-default clause, it said.
  • Hong Kong Developers Under Pressure to Cut Prices Amid Slowdown. Hong Kong’s developers are offering enticements from iPhones to wine coupons to counter the slowest home sales in at least 25 years, to no avail. Their options are now narrowing down to the one they’ve desperately sought to avoid: price cuts. Most buyers aren’t biting as property analysts predict prices will fall as much as 25 percent this year after declining 11 percent since September. At upscale The Avenue project in Hong Kong’s Wanchai district, developer Sino Land Co. and the Urban Renewal Authority have sold only one of 36 remaining apartments this year despite inducements including a HK$1.5 million ($193,000) voucher to buy new furniture. The next step may be the outright price cuts that developers have long resisted because of fears that they’ll fuel expectations of steeper declines.
  • EU Quarrels Over Refugees, With Greece, Austria in Crossfire. European leaders quarreled again over the refugee influx, with fingers pointed at Greece for doing too little to seal its border and at Austria and Slovenia for doing too much. Conflicting national responses to the expected 1 million new arrivals in 2016 on top of a similar number last year left Germany with the heaviest burden and Chancellor Angela Merkel facing untold political costs. “We must first avoid a battle among plans A, B and C: It makes no sense at all because it creates divisions within the European Union,” EU President Donald Tusk told reporters after meetings ended in pre-dawn hours on Friday.
  • Won Set for Worst Week in Six on Rate-Cut Bets, Rising Tension. South Korea’s won headed for its biggest weekly drop in six on rising geopolitical risk and speculation the central bank will cut interest rates. The currency fell to a five-year low on Friday as Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol said economic uncertainties are “higher than ever” due to external volatility and increasing tensions on the peninsula. One of seven board members called for a cut as the monetary authority held its benchmark rate on Tuesday. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has ordered his military to strengthen terror capabilities, South Korean President Park Geun Hye’s press secretary said in a briefing on Thursday. The won declined 1.9 percent this week to 1,235.14 a dollar as of 10:10 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Asian Stocks Pare Biggest Weekly Advance Since 2011 as Oil Drops. Asian stocks fell, paring the biggest weekly rally since December 2011, as the yen strengthened and a buildup in oil supplies dragged crude prices and energy producers lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent to 119.70 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 6.5 percent over four days going into the final trading day of this week after sinking to a 3 1/2-year low last week amid concern about the growth outlook for the world’s largest economies and the rout in oil. “Sentiment on the oil market has been a key macro driver for stock-market sentiment recently,” said Ric Spooner, Sydney-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets. “Concerns about the potential for credit-market problems in the event of a lower-for-longer oil scenario are near the top of a fairly long list of macro factors worrying investors at the moment.”
  • The Stressed-Out Oil Industry Faces an Existential Crisis. The Saudis may go public, OPEC’s in disarray, the U.S. is suddenly a global exporter, and shale drillers are seeking lifelines from investors as banks abandon them. Welcome to oil’s new world order, full of stresses, strains and fractures. For leaders gathering in Houston next week at the IHS CERAWeek conference -- often dubbed the Davos of the energy industry -- a key question is: what will break first? Will it be the balance sheets of big U.S. shale companies? The treasuries of Venezuela and Nigeria? The resolve of Saudi Arabia, whose recent deal with Russia to freeze output levels offered the first hint of a rethink?
  • Citadel Said to Cut Staff as Main Funds Drop 6.5% to Start 2016. Ken Griffin’s $26 billion firm cut about 15 investment professionals from one of its stock-trading units as its main hedge funds lost 6.5 percent in the first six weeks of the year, according to a person familiar with the firm. Citadel trimmed portfolio managers, analysts and junior analysts from its Surveyor arm that was formed in 2009, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The group currently has about 200 employees across 25 teams.
  • Nordstrom(JWN) Tumbles After Holiday Sales Miss Analysts' Estimates. Nordstrom Inc., the largest U.S. luxury department-store chain, fell as much as 8.5 percent in late trading after holiday results missed analysts’ estimates and the company gave a weak earnings forecast. Excluding some items, earnings fell to $1.17 a share in the fourth quarter, the Seattle-based company said in a statement Thursday. Analysts had predicted $1.21 a share on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Though sales rose 3.7 percent to $4.19 billion, that was below the $4.22 billion projection.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
BuzzFeedNews: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 162.5 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 78.25 +.75 basis point. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.43 -.15%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (B)/.66
  • (COG)/-.04
  • (DE)/.70
  • (TDS)/-.30
  • (VFC)/1.01 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

  • The CPI MoM for January is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in December.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM January is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in December.    
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for January. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking and the UK retail sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Worries, Oil Reversal, Yen Strength, Biotech/Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.63 -3.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.74 -.69%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.57 -1.72%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.91 -3.70%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +22.34%
  • Total Put/Call 1.14 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.49 +143.91% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 116.23 -.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,241.0 -2.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.0 +3.54%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.18 -10.16%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.14 +.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 379.56 -.69%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.24 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 31.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.52 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 105.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $47.14/Metric Tonne +1.70%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.8 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.60 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.4 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26% -3.0 basis points
  • 9.8% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 17.0% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -116 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Kurds Warn Turkey of ‘Big War’ With Russia If Troops Enter Syria. Russia has promised to protect Kurdish fighters in Syria in case of a ground offensive by Turkey, a move that would lead to a “big war,” the Syrian group’s envoy to Moscow said in an interview on Wednesday. “We take this threat very seriously because the ruling party in Turkey is a party of war,” Rodi Osman, head of the Syrian Kurds’ newly-opened representative office said in Kurdish via a Russian interpreter. “Russia will respond if there is an invasion. This isn’t only about the Kurds, they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Syria.” Conflicting interests in Syria have created a dangerous new phase in the country’s five-year war, even as world powers struggle to implement a truce agreement.
  • Turkey Blames Kurd Groups for Bomb, Urges U.S. to Cut Ties. Turkey’s leaders blamed two Kurdish groups for a bombing in the capital that killed 28 people, including one backed by the U.S. as a major ally in the fight against Islamic State in Syria. Speaking in Ankara the day after a car bomb blasted through a military bus, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the attack was carried out by separatists from the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party in coordination with the armed wing of the U.S.-backed Democratic Union Party in Syria, or PYD.
  • Citigroup(C) Plans Argentina, Brazil Retail-Banking Exit. Citigroup Inc. plans to exit retail banking in Argentina and Brazil, where the company has maintained operations for more than 100 years, a person familiar with the matter said. Citigroup had about 6,000 employees in Brazil as of 2014, a company executive said at the time. It operates 71 branches in Brazil, where it began banking in 1915, according to the website. Citigroup is the 10th largest commercial bank in the country, with 80.6 billion reais ($20 billion) in assets, according to central bank data. Foreign lenders including London-based Barclays Plc and Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank AG have been pulling back from the South American nation as it faces what’s predicted to be the worst recession in more than a century.
  • OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast and Warns of Growing Risks. (video) The OECD cut its global growth forecasts, saying the economies of Brazil, Germany and the U.S. are slowing and warning that some emerging markets are at risk of exchange-rate volatility. Global gross domestic product will expand 3.0 percent in 2016, the same pace as in 2015 and 0.3 percentage point less than predicted in November, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday in a report. “Financial stability risks are substantial,” the Paris-based organization said. “Some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange-rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt.” 
  • Hungary Central Bank Stockpiles Guns, Bullets Citing Terror Risk. Hungary’s central bank, already facing criticism for a spending spree ranging from real estate to fine art, is now beefing up its security force, citing Europe’s migrant crisis and potential bomb threats among the reasons. The National Bank of Hungary bought 200,000 rounds of live ammunition and 112 handguns for its security company, according to documents posted on a website for public procurements. Additional protection is needed due to the rise of "international security risks" including bomb and terror threats and migration, central bank Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said in a written response to a lawmaker who asked about the purchases, posted on Parliament’s website Feb. 17.
  • Europe's Refugee Impasse Deepens With More Balkan Border Checks. Europe’s efforts to contain refugee flows frayed further as Austria and Slovenia stepped up border patrols and terror attacks struck Turkey, the key transit land for Middle Eastern asylum seekers. Bombings of military convoys Wednesday and Thursday threatened to drag Turkey further into Syria’s civil war, raising questions whether the European Union can rely on it to stem the inflow. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu canceled a trip to Brussels for EU-Turkey meetings on the refugee problem.
  • Europe Leveraged Loans Post Longest Run of Losses Since Crisis. (graph) Europe’s leveraged-loan market is in freefall. Prices for the riskiest loans to companies dropped for the 13th straight day on Wednesday, the longest run of declines since the global financial crisis, according to an S&P index tracking 95 billion euros ($106 billion) of debt. The yield premium that investors demand to hold bonds backed by such debt is at a record for collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs, sold since the market re-opened in 2013, according to Barclays Plc.
  • Swiss Watch Exports Drop as Slowing Economies Curb Demand. Swiss watch exports slid for the seventh consecutive month as plummeting stocks and slowing economies damped demand for luxury timepieces in their main markets. The two biggest destinations for Swiss watch exports -- Hong Kong and the U.S. -- were almost exclusively responsible for the global downturn, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said in a statement Thursday. Shipments dropped 8 percent to 1.52 billion francs ($1.53 billion) in January, according to data from Switzerland’s customs office. That compares with a 3.7 percent gain in the same month in 2015.
  • How the ‘Brexit’ Summit Will Unfold and Why You Should Care: Q&A. (video) When Prime Minister David Cameron meets with the other European Union leaders in Brussels on Thursday, he’ll be seeking to reconstruct the U.K.’s terms of membership in the 28-country bloc.
  • European Stocks Give Up Gains as Banks, Energy Shares Decline. (video) European stocks gave up almost all the gains they had held on to for the better part of the day, as investors sold shares most closely linked with economic growth. Banks, miners and energy shares slid, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index following oil lower after a report showing U.S. crude inventories advanced to an 86-year high. The regional benchmark added less than 0.1 percent at the close of trading, paring an advance of much as 1 percent. It fell as much as 0.6 percent earlier. A gauge of euro-area stock volatility reversed losses to snap a four-day declining streak.
  • Shale Faces March Madness With $1.2 Billion in Interest Due. The U.S. shale industry must come up with $1.2 billion in interest payments by the end of March as $30-a-barrel oil makes it harder for companies to scrape up the cash needed to stay current on their debts. Almost half of the interest is owed by companies with junk-rated credit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on 61 companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence index of North American independent oil and gas producers. Energy XXI Ltd. said in a filing Tuesday that it missed an $8.8 million interest payment. The following day, SandRidge Energy Inc. announced that it didn’t make a $21.7 million interest payment.
  • Oil Pares Gain After U.S. Crude Inventories Rise to 86-Year High. (video) Oil pared gains after a government report showed U.S. crude inventories advanced to an 86-year high as imports surged. Crude stockpiles rose 2.15 million barrels to 504.1 million last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Imports climbed 11 percent, the biggest gain since April. Prices climbed earlier as Iran cautiously supported a proposal by Saudi Arabia and Russia to freeze production at near-record levels.
  • Tech Startups Load Up on Convertible Debt for Quick, Cheap Money. As venture capital reaches a high not seen since the dot-com boom, more technology startups are becoming addicted to quick, cheap loans. The percentage of U.S. venture rounds involving convertible debt has doubled since 2012, according to data from research firm Pitchbook Data. In 2015, 19% of venture deals included convertible debt, compared with 13% in 2014, Pitchbook said. In 2012, it was 9.2%. Rounds involving convertible loans had previously peaked at 12% in 2008, around the time of the global financial crisis, before slumping. They rose sharply in the last few years. Venture capital firms invested $58.8 billion in U.S. companies last year, the highest amount since 2000, according to a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the National Venture Capital Association.
  • Federal Reserve Staffers Say Mutual Funds Vulnerable to Runs. Mutual funds are vulnerable to runs that can spill over and cause problems in the broader financial system, according to a blog post published today on Liberty Street Economics by staffers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The authors, Nicola Cetorelli, Fernando Duarte and Thomas Eisenbach, argue that a run can occur when heavy withdrawals from a mutual fund cause the fund company to sell illiquid assets at fire sale prices. In that situation, the post says, investors will have an incentive to get their money out early, triggering a race for the door that can have a ripple effect beyond the original fund. “Redemption runs at the fund level trigger fire sales that depress market prices and spread losses to the broader financial system,” the authors wrote.
  • Rubio Says He's the One to Stop Trump. In a riverside pavilion in Summerville, South Carolina, on Tuesday, Marco Rubio returned to the central selling point of his case to win the Republican presidential nomination: electability. “I am as conservative as anyone in this race, but I can win,” he said at the Dorchester Boat Club along the Ashley River. “I am the last one left in this race who can unify the party. This is a divided party right now. We'll eventually come together, but if it's in October it's too late. We need to nominate someone who can bring us together quickly.” “I will never ask you to be angry at another group of Americans so that I can win an election,” Rubio added Thursday morning at a crossfit gym in Greenville. “I will never pit 51 percent of us againt the other 49 percent.” No fan of Trump herself, Haley took not-so-veiled shots at the billionaire in her response to the State of the Union. “During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices,” Haley said in January. “We must resist that temptation. No one who is willing to work hard, abide by our laws, and love our traditions should ever feel unwelcome in this country.”
CNBC:
  • House flipping: Deja vu all over again. House flipping is always hottest when home prices are nearing a peak. That is not the case right now nationally, and so flipping has remained pretty stable overall ... with two very glaring exceptions. Las Vegas and Miami. Sound familiar? They should.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -2.2% 2) Banks -1.7% 3) Biotech -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • DVN, JACK, SWM, TYL, CVRR, MGM, ULTA, PRGO, EVTC, CLMT, SHOP, FLXN, AAN, CERN, WAB, ATHM, CXO, GDDY, GRMN, WCIC, PANW, GVA, BTI, GDDY, DISCA, TNET, WMT, PTLA, WCIC, EVTC, QDEL, CVRR, AGIO, ARRS and BCC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) APO 2) AKS 3) DVN 4) GPS 5) VFC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CAT 2) MRO 3) JACK 4) RIG 5) COST
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Mid-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.2% 2) Computer Services +2.0% 3) Utilities +1.7% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • IM, AERI, LOPE, LZB, COT, DENN, LDRH, NVDA, TVPT, EIGI, SODA, JUNO, RAX, ROCK, CNNX, ITRI, EPAM, ASGN, IDCC, IBM, JUNO, CF, ATRO and EGN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) CA 2) UPL 3) FE 4) WMT 5) MAR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) ADS 2) NVDA 3) BRCD 4) PCLN 5) IBM
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: