Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,017.98 +.87%

• DJIA 17,198.50 +1.12%

• NASDAQ 4,740.37 +.46%

• Russell 2000 1,082.98 +.02%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.70 +.59%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 98.01 +.31% 

• Wilshire 5000 20,746.90 +.87%

• Russell 1000 Growth 976.22 +.59%

• Russell 1000 Value 960.21 +1.05%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 534.94 +.42%

• Solactive US Cyclical 126.03 +1.57%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,023.02 +1.17%

• Transports 7,681.49 +.33%

• Utilities 646.34 +2.07%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.94 +2.63%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 32.83 +1.29%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,102.36 +.08%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,005.64 -1.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,037 +.47%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 7.0 +6

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.6 -14.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 212,518 +3.24%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,800,298 +1.33%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +26.51%

• OEX Put/Call 1.15 -61.41%

• ISE Sentiment 94.0 +23.68%

• NYSE Arms .92 +35.71%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.91 +.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.62 +2.97%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.45 -2.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.67 -.17%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,510.85 +.26%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.803 Trillion -.04%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.189 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 37.4 +16.7%

• AAII % Bears 24.4 -16.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 173.53 +2.95%

• Crude Oil 38.48 +5.94%

• Reformulated Gasoline 144.21 +8.02%

• Natural Gas 1.82 +8.92%

• Heating Oil 121.95 +4.63%

• Gold 1,259.50 -.05%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 145.05 -.87%

• Copper 224.35 -.73%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 157.66 USD/Ton -5.78%

• China Iron Ore Spot 57.09 USD/Ton +6.21%

• Lumber 291.60 +6.19%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,051.37 +2.20%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.1% +40.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2673 -1.84%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.95 +.01%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.30 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.80 +7.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.30 -12.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 94.0% chance of no change, 6.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 96.17 -1.09%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,470.66 +.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.59 +1.33%

• Yield Curve 102.0 +1.0 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.98% +10.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.442 Trillion +.06%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.0 +8.31%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 356.0 -3.47%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 27.77 -11.2%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 65.65 -3.62%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 166.42 -7.28%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.50 -5.65%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,063.29 -8.94%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 282.53 -6.45%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 125.28 +.71%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 32.0 -4.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 +7.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 84.53 -11.97%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,823.0 -7.77%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 75.70 -24.86%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 318.97 -6.30%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 170.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $3.154 Trillion +1.56%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,084.40 +.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 267,500 -2,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% -10.0 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.68% +4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 497.30 +.16%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.8 +.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.70% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $1.80/gallon +.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 384.0 +10.03%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 735.66 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +36.36%

• Rail Freight Carloads 265,186 -2.87%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +1.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +4.0%

• Gold & Silver +2.4%

• Drugs +2.1%

• Homebuilders +2.1%

• Utilities +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Papers -1.5% 

• Steel -1.5%

• Airlines -1.5%

• Disk Drives -3.7%

• 3D Printing -4.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)

• OMER, NATL, ATSG, CKEC, BUFF, URBN, UEIC, EXPR, MSEX, BETR, LOCO, SWHC, ANAT, CPGX, PRLB, KTWO and NGS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• TRU, WING, MENT, PEN, HRTG, RAVN, HRB, SHAK, RNG, HIFR, CCRN, FNHC, JCOM, VRTS, OME and SCOR

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -5.65%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.63 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.67 -.60%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.34 +.42%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 +7.0%

• Total Put/Call .98 -1.01%

• NYSE Arms .88 +21.97% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -5.6%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,825.0 -2.82%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.28 -15.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.16 -4.61%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.74 -3.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 319.87 -3.96%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.28 +.36%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 32.0 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 -1.5 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.05 +.75%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 102.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.09/Metric Tonne -1.43%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.30 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.80 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.30 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53% +3.0 basis points
• 22.9% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 50.7% chance at June 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• China’s February New Credit Plunged From Prior Month Record. China’s broadest measure of new credit dropped sharply after a record surge a month earlier. Aggregate financing was at 780.2 billion yuan ($120 billion) in February, according to a report from the People’s Bank of China on Friday, compared with the median forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey. New yuan loans were 726.6 billion yuan, compared to the estimate of 1.2 trillion yuan. China’s money supply increased 13.3 percent from a year earlier, the PBOC said, less than the 14 percent gain in the prior month and below the 13.7 percent economists projected.
• Draghi Can Cut Borrowing Costs, But Can't Make Companies Spend. (video) Mario Draghi’s plans to buy corporate bonds will cut financing costs for European companies, if history is any guide. Getting the firms to actually borrow and spend money will be harder. Corporations already have hefty incentives to sell debt, with average yields on investment-grade bonds in the region below 2 percent for a second year. But they have little appetite to raise money to invest in new factories and equipment, as the outlook for the global economy dims. Euro-area consumer spending growth slowed to 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.5 percent in the third. While investment picked up in the quarter, total economic growth was still limited to just 0.3 percent. Confidence among households dropped in February to its lowest level in more than a year. “If you don’t need the funds then why should you raise them?” said Ivo Kok, the treasurer of Alliander NV, an investment-grade Dutch gas and electricity distribution company. “It is more of a risk to have an awful lot of cash around that you’re not putting to work.”
• Deutsche Bank Sees 2016 Industrywide Trading Revenue Drop. Deutsche Bank AG, which runs Europe’s biggest investment bank, said it expects the industry’s revenue to decline this year as clients consider pulling back from trading some fixed-income securities and refrain from doing deals. Securities firms will see debt trading revenue fall “slightly” from a year earlier as “an increase in macro revenues due to monetary policy divergence will be more than offset by lower credit revenues,” Deutsche Bank said in a statement from Frankfurt on Friday. Income from equity trading will probably be “moderately lower” in 2016, while corporate finance industry fee pools will fall due to a decline in deals to advise on, it said. “The beginning of 2016 has seen volatility in the world’s financial markets,” co-Chief Executive Officers John Cryan and Juergen Fitschen said in a note to shareholders. “This has impacted the banking sector. The seasonally strong first quarter might turn out to be challenging for the sector overall. Deutsche Bank is no exception to this.”
• BNP Paribas Cut to A From A+ by Standard & Poor's.
• Iraq's Abadi Says Islamic State Used Gas in Attack Near Kirkuk. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Islamic State militants used gas in an attack on the northern town of Taza and requested help from international experts to investigate. “The random gas attack against the town of Taza is a big crime and the response will be tough,” Abadi said in a statement posted on his website on Friday. He said he sent a team of medics to Taza, south of Kirkuk. 
• Banks Lead Rebound in Europe Stocks; DAX Jumps Most Since August. (video) Europe’s stocks bounced back, recovering from Thursday’s losses, as traders reassessed Mario Draghi’s expanded stimulus package versus his signal that it might be the end of interest-rate cuts. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.6 percent to a six-week high, boosted by gains in financial firms and automakers.
• Oil boom built on junk debt sees $19 billion default wave. Investors are facing $19 billion in energy defaults as the worst oil crash in a generation leaves drillers struggling to stay afloat. The wave could begin within days if Energy XXI Ltd., SandRidge Energy Inc. and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. fail to reach agreements with creditors and shareholders. Those are three of at least eight oil and gas producers that have announced missed debt payments, triggering a countdown to default. "Shale was a hot growth area and companies made the mistake of borrowing too much," said George Schultze, founder and chief investment officer of Schultze Asset Management in New York, which has been betting against several distressed energy companies. "It's amazing that so many people were willing to lend them money. Many are going to file for bankruptcy, and bondholders and equity are going to get wiped out en masse."
• Iron Ore's `Insane' Advance Gets Rolled Back as Wild Week Ends. Iron ore sank, adding to signs the record leap at the start of the week wasn’t justified given the global market’s poor fundamentals, with banks and even miners lining up to say the spurt was destined to fade. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao retreated 1.4 percent to $57.09 a dry metric ton, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The price has declined every day after Monday’s 19 percent rally to $63.74, the biggest gain in daily data going back to 2009. Friday’s drop was foreshadowed by losses in futures in Singapore, which fell near $50. “The insane rise at the start of the week was irrational and is unlikely to continue,” Huang Huiwen, an analyst at Shanghai Cifco Futures Co, said before the Metal Bulletin data was released. “Usually after a period of abrupt gains, prices tend to drop back quite sharply. I think we’ll see that in iron ore.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Bundesbank Opposed Latest ECB Stimulus Package. German central bank fears ‘doom loop’ of high expectations followed by disappointment. Germany’s Bundesbank opposed the European Central Bank’s stimulus package as structured Thursday and fears a “doom loop” of high market expectations followed by disappointment, people familiar with the matter said. The ECB on Thursday announced a larger-than-expected package of interest-rate cuts, bond purchases and ultracheap loans, boosting its stimulus for the second time in three months in an effort to spur inflation and bolster the eurozone’s fragile economy. While stock and bond markets initially rallied,...

Fox News: 

• Source: Clinton IT specialist revealing server details to FBI, 'devastating witness'. (video) Former Hillary Clinton IT specialist Bryan Pagliano, a key witness in the email probe who struck an immunity deal with the Justice Department, has told the FBI a range of details about how her personal email system was set up, according to an intelligence source close to the case who called him a “devastating witness.” The source said Pagliano told the FBI who had access to the former secretary of state’s system – as well as when – and what devices were used, amounting to a roadmap for investigators. "Bryan Pagliano is a devastating witness and, as the webmaster, knows exactly who had access to [Clinton's] computer and devices at specific times. His importance to this case cannot be over-emphasized," the intelligence source said.

CNBC:

• Strategist: Fed to pave the way for June hike. (video)
• Trump 'fundamentally breaks' the GOP: Ex-Bush 43 aide. (video) The Republican Party needs candidates to stay in the presidential race in order to force a brokered convention and deny front-runner Donald Trump the nomination, a former senior aide to President George W. Bush said Friday. That strategy will surely alienate some of Trump's supporters, said Sara Fagen, now a partner at public affairs firm DDC. But while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who trails Trump in the delegate count, would have a tough time against Hillary Clinton in a general election, he would keep the core of the party together, she added. "Donald Trump fundamentally breaks the Republican Party, and it is not the same party moving forward ever again," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "That is a worse prospect for most Republicans than Ted Cruz or a weakened Marco Rubio or some other scenario."

Zero Hedge:

• Now We Know Why the ECB Panicked. (graph)
• 10 Warning Signs of A Dangerous Stock Market.
• Gold's Best Year Since 1974 Sparks Record Inflows Into ETFs. (graph)
• After January Scramble, Chinese Lending Collapses. (graph)
• Oil Bust Spreads As 11 Texas Towns See Credit Downgraded.
• This Is What A Broken Bond Market Looks Like: Treasury "Failures" Soars To Multi-Year Highs.
• Why Despite Today's Market Surge, Bank of America Stubbornly Refuses To Join The Rally. (graph)
• China Exports Most Deflation To US Since 2010. (graph)
• The Good, The Bad, And The Petulant Child: Three "Morning After" Reactions To The ECB's All-In Gamble.
• Draghi Warns About Rising Inequality Hours After Boosting QE, As BIS Warns QE Leads To Inequality.

Business Insider:

• Marco Rubio's campaign is telling his Ohio supporters to vote Kasich to stop Trump. I'm just stating the obvious. If you are a Republican primary voter in Ohio and you want to defeat Donald Trump, your best chance in Ohio is John Kasich. Because John Kasich is the sitting governor. He's very close to Donald Trump in some of the polls there. The same is true here in Florida — where if you want to defeat Donald Trump here in Florida, where there's 99 delegates at stake — you need to vote for Marco Rubio. Because he's the only one with a mathematical shot, and if you look at the polls and the early voting, a very good shot at beating Donald Trump here. If the Trump wins both Ohio and Florida next week, number crunchers have widely predicted that the frontrunner would have so many delegates, he'd become almost impossible to stop.
• Bill Ackman’s plan to save his biggest investment has already been shot down.
• GOLDMAN SACHS: This oil rally is self-defeating.

Ship & Bunker: 

• WCI World Container Freight Rate Index Drops to Record Low. Drewy Maritime Research Thursday announced that the World Container Index (WCI) has dropped to its lowest reading ever, at just $701 per 40-foot container. This was the lowest reading since the WCI started tracking weekly transatlantic, transpacific and Asia-Europe rates in June 2011. Drewry also noted that index rate assessments for the Shanghai-Rotterdam and the Shanghai-Genoa routes fell to all-time lows of $354 and $341 per 40-foot box respectively, while the latest Shanghai-Los Angeles rate of $878 per 40-foot container was said to be "marginally higher" than the record low for that route. "The World Container Index's composite index is now 60% lower than the average of the past five years and has decreased by 62% in the past year," said Richard Heath, director of WCI. "Rate reductions are spreading across all routes, as the shipping market continues to soften.

AP:

• GOP Divisions Remain Amid New Calls for Unity. Even amid calls for party unity, there remain sharp divisions in the Republican presidential contest. Marco Rubio warned on CBS’s “This Morning” that Donald Trump could destroy the GOP, given the many Republicans who vow never to support him. Rubio said, “There is a very significant number of Republicans that will never vote for him. And you can’t win unless the party’s united.”

Latvia Public TV:

• ECB Can't Act Alone to Stimulate Euro Area Economy. Euro area needs more contribution from other policies, for example in increasing competitiveness and structural reforms, ECB Governing Council member Ilmars Rimsevics says. There are no more "sweet medicines," says Rimsevics, who's also governor of Latvian central bank. Geopolitical and global factors are unfavorable, he said. Latvia needs to be ready for slower economic growth, has to revise its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2016.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold and Silver -1.1% 2) Steel -.8% 3) Disk Drives -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ZUMZ, FOXF, LOCO, FXCM, MED, SERV, CCP, SJW, GCO, NWE, CTRN, CPPL, ANFI, JBSS, TEP, RRMS, ASTE, ACAT, FCN, BGG, BOX and CPPL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLNX 2) CNX 3) AA 4) BTU 5) BIIB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACAT 2) NK 3) WSM 4) NOV 5) FSC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 

• Mid-Cap Value +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.5% 2) Hospitals +3.8% 3) Energy +2.9% 

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• MCRN, BOJA, FNSR, ULTA, BPT, PAY and HTZ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) ULTA 2) ADSK 3) EW 4) PAY 5) CL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) SYMC 2) FNSR 3) ULTA 4) ALK 5) DG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 83.8% of Issues Advancing, 14.5% Declining
• 61 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 36.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.4%
• Vix 16.8 -7.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.11 +12.1%
• TRIN/Arms .87 +15.43%