Friday, August 12, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,182.08 -.03%
  • DJIA 18,564.40 +.13%
  • NASDAQ 5,228.55 +.16%
  • Russell 2000 1,228.30 -.24%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 31.57 +.13%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.26 +1.90
  • Wilshire 5000 22,537.20 -.03%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,057.12 +.03%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,041.85 -.08%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 563.14 +.69%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 139.54 -.86%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,166.68 +.57%
  • Transports 7,810.14 -.46%
  • Utilities 692.60 +.17%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.07 +3.51%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.35 +2.71%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,130.94 +.20%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.23 -.12%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 268,374 +.87%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 559 +413
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -48.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 267,192 -2.23%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,792,640 +4.33%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -23.91%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.40 +617.39%
  • ISE Sentiment 166.0 +52.52%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 -15.3%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.78 -.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.22 -1.14%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.74 +2.96%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 190.10 +6.65%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,601.17 +.03%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.745 Trillion +.22%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$7.430 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 31.3 +5.0%
  • AAII % Bears 26.8 unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 182.09 +.66%
  • Crude Oil 44.15 +5.84%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 136.40 -1.29%
  • Natural Gas 2.58 -5.22%
  • Heating Oil 139.79 +5.95%
  • Gold 1,339.80 +1.27%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 150.18 -.58%
  • Copper 214.0 -.42%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 206.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 60.37 USD/Ton -.61%
  • Lumber 322.60 +.06%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,134.96 -1.19%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.5% -30.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.4% +20.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1291 -4.22%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.69 +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -10.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.0 +2.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 84.0% chance of no change, 16.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/21
  • US Dollar Index 95.65 -.67%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,558.28 +1.02%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.03 -.01%
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.51% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.429 Trillion +.05%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.75 +66.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 356.0 -.06%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.26 -6.16%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 43.91 -3.45%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 116.24 -4.05%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.30 +.47%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 857.0 -.01%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 230.87 +5.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.75 +.24%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.45% -6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 54.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 +3.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.60 -.63%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 714.0 -4.85%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.29 -1.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 243.58 -4.68%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 147.50 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.207 Trillion -1.13%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,023.30 +.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 262,750 +2,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.45% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 564.0 +7.06%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.8 -1.2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.5% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.13/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 653.0 +2.67%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 702.87 +.09%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +11.11%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 263,589 +.39%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.01%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +3.6%
  • Gaming +2.3%
  • Energy +1.7%
  • Retail +1.4%
  • HMOs +1.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Road & Rail -1.8% 
  • Biotech -2.0%
  • Steel -3.9%
  • Coal -7.1%
  • Hospitals -10.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (38)
  • MFRM, DXPE, AOSL, FRPT, BID, WING, COTV, IPHI, NVRO, M, HCKT, DTSI, AMBR, DCO, YELP, EAT, LDR, VRTV, RL, CTRL, KSS, RAX, BREW, SM, VRX, MRK, CVG, MTN, FOSL, VRNS, DIOD, WMC, ZLTQ, HRTX, UNVR, DMRC, WTS and CPS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (34)
  • BGS, MDRX, RYAM, NUAN, DVA, FOXF, WBMD, WEB, DY, KLAC, OLED, TUBE, VRTU, PMC, OA, FLO, AMAG, ECOM, ECPG, EDIT, VSTO, MODN, AHS, ROG, MXL, BMY, W, SHLM, APEI, SPWR, SHEN, CPSI, IPXL and MYGN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Yen Strength, Profit-Taking, Metals & Mining/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.74 +.51%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 117.96 -.53%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.31 +2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +106.76%
  • Total Put/Call .71 -24.47%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +110.56
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.83 +.81%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 718.0 +1.47%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.51 +2.17%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.26 +1.20%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.86 -.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 245.64 +1.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.75 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 53.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.25 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.37 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.37/Metric Tonne +1.70%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.90 -5.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% -2.0 basis points
  • 19.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 42.1% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -101 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -2.0% 2) Gaming -1.4% 3) Road & Rail -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PBFX, CXRX, AYA, VSTO, COLL, CORE, AIT, EHTH, FNBC, TLK, LXFT, EDIT, PLUS, PEN, WMGI, SINA, CUDA, KEP, RYI, OLED, NP, DSLV, CSRA, MSG and KRA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NVDA 2) JWN 3) BRK/B 4) JCP 5) WMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CUDA 2) EFOI 3) TWTR 4) SPWR 5) MYRG
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +1.4% 2) Gold & Silver +1.1% 3) REITs +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • REN, AVXS, ACIA, JWN, PLNT, MCRB, CMCM, DK and AZPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HAIN 2) HRB 3) SYF 4) HPE 5) CYH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NVDA 2) JWN 3) KSS 4) AKAM 5) UA
Charts: