Friday, September 23, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,167.26 +1.44%
  • DJIA 18,285.80 +.82%
  • NASDAQ 5,311.28 +1.22%
  • Russell 2000 1,256.51 +2.67%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 32.22 +.81%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.24 +4.32
  • Wilshire 5000 22,453.0 +1.43%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,050.26 +1.50%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,039.09 +1.52%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 548.57 +1.19%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 136.30 unch.
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,192.49 +.78%
  • Transports 7,937.96 +2.22%
  • Utilities 694.31 +3.55%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 76.28 +1.39%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.74 +3.47%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,140.06 +.79%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,002.27 +.68%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 273,093 +1.51%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 440 +493
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.26 -.28%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 313,302 +9.62%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,829,620 -1.72%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +4.0%
  • OEX Put/Call .71 +7.81%
  • ISE Sentiment 88.0 -8.51%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -18.75%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.24 -19.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.2 -12.92%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.81 -3.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.36 -4.78%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,376.64 -1.02%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.670 Trillion +.4%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.545 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 24.8 -11.1%
  • AAII % Bears 35.9 +6.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 183.10 +1.28%
  • Crude Oil 44.84 +3.31%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 137.63 -6.29%
  • Natural Gas 2.96 +.24%
  • Heating Oil 141.47 unch.
  • Gold 1,337.90 +2.13%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 153.01 +3.11%
  • Copper 220.35 +1.99%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 192.67 USD/Ton -7.96%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 56.79 USD/Ton +1.47%
  • Lumber 304.20 -1.90%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,150.01 +.64%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.9% -10.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.8% +10.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1917 +9.28%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.91 +.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 -1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.3 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.70 unch.
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 80.7% chance of no change, 19.3% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/02
  • US Dollar Index 95.49 -.58%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,552.01 +1.28%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.58 -.54%
  • Yield Curve 86.0 -7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.61% -9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.433 Trillion -.19%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.28 +.04%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 360.0 +1.5%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.61 -7.44% (new series)
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.0 -19.68%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 85.85 -17.94%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.0 -7.48%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 755.53 +.18%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 210.0 +1.95%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.99 +.25%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 69.50 +13.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.75 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 75.93 -.46%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 676.0 +1.65%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 96.65 +2.12%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 232.67 -11.0%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.333 Trillion +1.25%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 942.60 -2.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 258,500 -2,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% -10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.48% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 530.80 -7.35%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.30 -.9 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.5% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.21/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 937.0 +17.12%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 736.07 +3.45%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 -10.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 267,568 +16.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +2.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +7.8%
  • Alt Energy +4.7%
  • Gold & Silver +4.4%
  • REITs +4.2%
  • Utilities +3.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -.3% 
  • Papers -.6%
  • Education -.7%
  • Gaming -2.5%
  • Hospitals -3.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (43)
  • TBRA, SRPT, COLL, GNMK, WCIC, ISLE, WVE, TECD, RVNC, DTSI, AERI, PTCT, ESPR, DEPO, CEVA, TSRA, LL, PICO, BLOX, GPRO, KEYW, FIX, SCHN, HAYN, CTMX, CAR, PBYI, BRKS, ETSY, MCRB, FDX, SPSC, CHCT, SUPN, RWT, GFF, FOXF, AMPH, APFH, QDEL, FIBK, NWE and RGNX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)
  • RETA, FWRD, FUL, SKX, SBGI, WST, BANC, SFLY, MLHR and HNI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Oil Weakness, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.49 +3.91%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.58 +.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.36 +.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.03 +2.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -3.41%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +8.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 -26.25
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.55 +.65%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 674.0 -2.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.70 -.99%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.61 +.04%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.96 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 232.20 +2.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.99 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 69.5 +4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.75 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.91 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 86.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.79/Metric Tonne +.80%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.30 +6.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.7 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59% +3.0 basis points
  • 57.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 59.7% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -134 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.6% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Energy -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CAFD, VA, CPTA, HMHC, FINL, HOMB, OSK, CRM, PG, MAR, MLHR, RETA, CDW, YHOO, SRPT, ASH, WOOF, AZO, COO, SYNT, VOD, WIX, NVO, FB, AAC and IVR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HPE 2) CZR 3) FSLR 4) TWLO 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FCAU 2) THRM 3) RDC 4) CPTA 5) ENOC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +1.0% 2) Steel +.6% 3) REITs +.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IMPV, TWTR, ENDP, GPRO, CRAY, SC, TCK, NLNK, KCG, MB and AIR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PPL 2) IMPV 3) PAA 4) TWTR 5) HSY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) YUM 2) ACM 3) CDTX 4) PII 5) AMZN
Charts: