Monday, January 30, 2017

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:13 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, January 29, 2017

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:54 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Saudi King, Trump Agree to Tackle Iran's Influence, Boost Ties. Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman agreed to bolster economic ties, anti-terrorism efforts and tackle Iran’s “destabilizing regional activities” in a call held amid growing criticism over the U.S. president’s move to block immigration from seven predominantly Muslim countries. The two leaders “agreed on the importance of strengthening joint efforts to fight the spread of radical Islamic terrorism and also on the importance of working jointly to address challenges to regional peace and security, including the conflicts in Syria and Yemen,” the White House said. The king agreed to support “safe zones in Syria and Yemen, as well as supporting other ideas to help the many refugees who are displaced by the ongoing conflicts,” according to the statement.
  • German Pride Shifting to Frustration in Role as Motor of Europe. Germany is cursed by its own economic strength. For eight years, the nation of 83 million people has been the euro area’s growth driver. Now it’s at the forefront of the currency bloc’s reflation, with price increases potentially exceeding 2 percent, and dissatisfaction with the European Central Bank has morphed into outrage. Critics and media are slamming the institution’s monetary stance -- set to support not just Germany but the entire 19-nation region -- as mainstream parties struggle to contain a surge in populism ahead of national elections. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has warned that higher inflation could cause “political problems,” and German monetary officials are urging their peers to start devising an exit strategy from unconventional stimulus.
  • Dollar Slips After Trump Move, Asia Stocks to Fall. The dollar headed lower and Asian stocks signaled a weaker start to the week as traders digested the tensions sparked by Donald’s Trump order halting some immigration, a move that’s ignited opposition from world leaders. The greenback weakened against all its major peers in early Asian trading. Equity-index futures in Japan and Australia dropped, while markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are among those closed for holidays. Australian 10-year bonds climbed.
  • Kuwait Extends World-Topping Rally as Traders Dismiss U.S. Ban. Kuwait stocks, the world’s best performers this year, extended a rally to an 18th day, the longest winning streak in over a decade, as the country moved a step closer to a debut sale of dollar bonds. Gulf markets didn’t react to a U.S. travel ban on seven mainly Muslim countries. The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index advanced 1.3 percent to 6,943.24 on Sunday, the highest level since November 2014. The Bahrain Bourse All Share Index finished at the highest level since 2015 and Oman’s MSM30 Index added 0.2 percent. Kuwait picked six banks to advise on its first international debt sale as the OPEC member shores up public finances after the slump in oil prices.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Donald Trump’s Immigration Order Sparks Confusion, Despair at Airports. Scientists, business travelers, grandmothers among those banned from entering; 375 blocked Saturday include green-card holders. Scientists, business travelers and grandmothers were among those trapped at U.S. airports or diverted in transit to the U.S. Saturday as the impact of an executive order reverberated around the globe. Citing security concerns, President Donald Trump late Friday suspended the entire U.S. refugee program for four months and banned for 90 days entry into the U.S. of nationals from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somali, Sudan, Syria and Yemen...
MarketWatch.com:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (LM), (BMY), (ABCO), (ANTM), (MGA), (SYNT), (BLUE), (LLY) and (CVS). 
  • Had bearish commentary on .
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.25 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.25 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.46 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.31%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AMG)/3.70
  • (CR)/.98
  • (GGG)/.86
  • (IEX)/.93
  • (SANM)/.67
  • (WERN)/.26
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for December is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in November.
  • Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in November.
  • Real Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in November.
  • The PCE Core MoM for December is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in November.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for December are estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -2.5% decline in November.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated at 15.5 versus 15.5 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report and the Japan Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighted down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 8:51 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising European/Emerging Markets/US high-yield debt angst, yen strength and protectionism worries offset oil gains, economic optimism and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 8:45 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising European/Emerging Markets/US high-yield debt angst, yen strength and protectionism worries offset oil gains, economic optimism and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, January 28, 2017

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 8:44 PM
Bloomberg:
  • White House Defends Immigrant Ban as Airports Stop Travelers. President Donald Trump defended his order suspending refugee resettlements in the U.S. and barring entry to people from from Iraq, Syria and five other Middle East nations, as confusion broke out at airports around the world and government agencies and airlines tried to interpret the new rules. "It’s not a Muslim ban,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “We were totally prepared. It’s working out very nicely. You see it at the airports, you see it all over. It’s working out very nicely."
  • IMF Warns Eurogroup Loan Measures Not Enough for Greek Debt. Greece’s public debt and financing needs will prove “explosive” in decades to come unless Europe overhauls its bailout program to ease the load, the International Monetary Fund says in a draft report as the country seeks a fresh loan payout. In a baseline scenario, Greece’s government debt will reach 275 percent of its gross domestic product by 2060, at which time its gross financing needs will represent 62 percent of GDP, the IMF says in the report obtained by Bloomberg. The government estimates public debt around 180 percent of GDP at present. The document also says some Greek debt proposals by euro-area finance ministers “are not specific enough to enable a full assessment” of their impact on sustainability. Finance ministers meeting in Brussels last week failed to agree on how to unlock further aid for the country, whose 86 billion-euro ($92 billion) bailout program is under review.
  • ECB Must Maintain Highly Accommodative Conditions, Visco Says. The European Central Bank must maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy to avoid deflation risks and ensure price stability, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said. “There are as yet no clear indications of any inversion of trend in the core components driving developments in consumer prices and wage growth,” Visco, who sits on the European Central Bank Governing Council, said on Saturday in a speechat the annual Assiom-Forex conference in Modena, near Bologna. “To bring inflation back to a path consistent with medium-term price stability, monetary conditions must continue to be highly accommodative.”
  • Trump Faces Growing GOP Pressure to Maintain Russia Sanctions. A group of Republicans in the U.S. Senate is intensifying calls on President Donald Trump to keep sanctions on Russia in place one day before his planned call with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and others were responding to media reports that Trump administration officials are considering taking executive actions to lift sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 over its occupation of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine.
  • Ford(F) CEO Told Trump U.S. Fuel-Economy Rules Risk 1 Million Jobs. About 1 million U.S. jobs are at risk if fuel-economy rules don’t align with market reality, according to Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Mark Fields, who delivered the estimation directly to President Donald Trump. Fields and his peers -- General Motors Co. chief Mary Barra and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s Sergio Marchionne -- didn’t ask to have fuel-economy standards eliminated during their meeting with the president at the White House this week, the CEO said Friday. The focus was on combining various sets of government regulations and ensuring they take into account consumer demand.
  • Trump Restrains Lobbying by Administration Veterans in Order. President Donald Trump moved to reorganize his National Security Council, implement a lobbying ban for political appointees once they exit his administration, and order the Pentagon to create a plan to defeat the Islamic State terror organization. The initiatives were signed into effect by Trump in the Oval Office on Saturday, and represented the latest in a cavalcade of presidential directives this week that included banning travelers from seven countries that Trump believes breed terrorism, building a wall along the Mexican border, and seeking ways to restrain implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Saturday’s flurry of orders capped a foreign-policy heavy day for the new president, who had calls scheduled with five foreign leaders, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
  • Mnuchin Dims Banks’ Hopes He Will Allow a Prop-Trading Revival. Steven Mnuchin made clear he doesn’t want Wall Street banks getting back into the business of making risky market bets with their own capital, after Senate Democrats pushed him to clarify his responses to questions they asked during his confirmation process to be Treasury secretary.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
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Friday, January 27, 2017

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 3:11 PM
  • S&P 500 2,293.31 +.97%*
photo nut_zps0lapan2g.png

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change
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