Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 49.9% of Issues Advancing, 46.1% Declining
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 42.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.7%
• Vix 10.0 -3.7%
• Total Put/Call .87 +8.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +26.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 -.25 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.57 +.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 18.0 versus 25.2 in August.
• Advance Retail Sales MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.6% in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in July.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Capacity Utilization for August is estimated at 76.7% versus 76.7% in July.
• Manufacturing Production for August is estimated to rise +.3% versu a -.1% decline in July.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for September is estimated to fall to 95.0 versus 96.8 in August. 
• Business Inventories for July are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Concerns, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Telecom/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.46 -.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.30 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.72 -.39%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 26.31 -.38%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -26.13%
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -10.47%

• NYSE Arms .89 +22.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.43 +.69%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 420.0 -1.47%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 48.82 -1.55%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.93 -4.27%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.43 +2.7%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.76 -.07%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.87 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 27.75 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.76 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.05% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 83.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $73.99/Metric Tonne -3.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.60 +2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.60 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.10 -5.1 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 +1.0 basis point
  
• 13.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 51.6% chance at Dec. 13 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.8% 2) Telecom -1.0% 3) Gaming -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GKOS, LXRX, WLH, CRTO, PFGC, SAGE, IRBT, TIF, EFX, HSIC, EPZM, MGI and LPI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WNRL 2) SN 3) EFX 4) HBI 5) TMUS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HTZ 2) OPK 3) ENDP 4) CAR 5) ABC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +1.1% 2) Semis +1.0% 3) Drugs +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HALO, PLSE, ALV, UNFI, ZTO, AAAP, VERI, LOXO, PARR, THC, BZH, BITA, KAI, ZAGG, TDOC, SNPS, PII, RARE, AMC, LIVN, MGA, CBM, ATRC, RICE, JNCE, SQ and STAR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CSX 2) EFX 3) MNK 4) TXMD 5) EQT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HALO 2) UNFI 3) TOO 4) NYMX 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 52.1% of Issues Advancing, 44.3% Declining
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 42.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.8%
• Vix 10.4 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .74 -14.0%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +24.4%