Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -.7% 2) Steel -.5% 3) Disk Drives -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AIR, NETE, CAMP, WWE, RIOT, BOJA, OSTK, ALRM and SIEB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TWX 2) RIOT 3) RLGY 4) UAA 5) ALLY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WWE 2) BOJA 3) HOV 4) DLNG 5) PZZA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.0% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Energy +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RXDX, LJPC, SGH, PRTY, MTH, ARRY, APOG, WTW, NBLX, CRSP, CBIO, PCG, ECH, LNG, BBBY, EYE, TYG, HF, RMAX, INSW, MBIO, TCX, SXC, FANG and EIX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AES 2) PZZA 3) ARRY 4) NKE 5) XLE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRTY 2) APA 3) RMAX 4) FDC 5) COF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -25.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 47.5% of Issues Advancing, 48.5% Declining
• 94 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 61.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.6%
• Vix 9.5 -.8%
• Total Put/Call .87 +3.6%
• TRIN/Arms .92 +48.3%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Catalan Separatists Win Regional Election in Blow to Rajoy. (video) The three separatist group had 70 seats in the 135 strong assembly with 99 percent of the votes counted late on Thursday, the Catalan regional government said on its website. The pro-Spain opposition party Ciudadanos claimed the most votes of any single group to take 37 seats while Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party was decimated, losing eight of its 11 lawmakers. Rajoy called the snap election in October after weeks of turmoil, ousting the rebel administration in Barcelona to stop it from putting a declaration of independence into effect. Now the separatists have a mandate to reclaim control over the region and Ciudadanos is challenging the PP’s claim to be the party that can hold the nation together. “This is really bad for Rajoy,” Veronica Fumanal, a political marketing expert, who has advised both Ciudadanos and the Socialists, said in an interview. “He’s been completely rejected.” 

• Bond Yields Set for Weekly Jump, Stocks Tick Up. Equity gauges from the U.S. to Asia and Europe are also set for a modest advance this week as trading volumes dip into year-end. With little on the economic calendar to drive trading in Asia, futures in the region were up early Friday after U.S. benchmarks closed higher. Treasury yields came off their highs of the week, with the curve sharply flatter as demand from fund managers emerged at the long end. The dollar was mixed versus its major peers as gains against the Mexico peso were offset by losses against the loonie. Bitcoin plunged for a third session. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed as of 8:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The main gauge advanced 0.2 percent to 2,684.57 Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was up 0.3 percent. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)

• Papa John's Controversial CEO Will Hand Reins to Lieutenant. Company founder John Schnatter will hand the reins to Chief Operating Officer Steve Ritchie as of Jan. 1. The 43-year-old Ritchie, who began as a Papa John’s customer-service rep making $6 an hour in 1996, has been overseeing operations for the past three years.

Wall Street Journal:

• Boeing(BA) Confirms Takeover Talks With Brazilian Aircraft Maker Embraer. Boeing and Embraer have discussed a deal that would value Embraer at a big premium to its market value Thursday morning of some $3.7 billion.

• Obama’s Pass for Hezbollah. Charges that he killed a probe of the terror group to get his Iran deal.

MarketWatch.com:

• The Dow is on track to do something it hasn’t done since 1959.

Fox News:

• Republicans demand answers over claims Obama gave Hezbollah a pass. (video)

CNBC:

• Tax bill 'winners' could help drive the stock market's traditional year-end Santa rally.

• Three Dow stocks, including Microsoft(MSFT), are poised for a major breakout.

• Eric Schmidt is stepping down as the executive chairman of Alphabet(GOOGL).

• Here's how the tax bill will affect the middle class in every US state.

• Meet the robot that passed a college class on philosophy and love.

• Nike's(NKE) profit tops estimates but margins dip on weak North America demand. (video)

• $24 million iced tea company says it's pivoting to the blockchain, and its stock jumps 200%. (video)

• Stocks are the most overbought in 22 years, and history says that's bullish. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Spanish Crisis Returns: Separatists Win Catalan Election In Huge Blow To Rajoy.

• House Passes Temporary Funding To Operate Through January 19.

• "A Stunning Rebuke": 128 Nations Support UN Call For Trump To Withdraw Jerusalem Decision. 

• Is This Why Charlie Lee Sold His Litecoin?

• Goldman(GS) Is Preparing To Launch A Cryptocurrency Trading Desk.

• Is A Major Winter Blast Coming To The East Coast This Christmas?

• Credit, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Stocks See Longest 'Dipless' Streak In 58 Years. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Steve Bannon blames Jared Kushner for Trump's Russia problems: 'This tells you everything about Jared'.

• Batterygate: How Apple(AAPL) secretly slowed down older iPhones and why it's such a big deal.

• Walmart(WMT) is making an unprecedented move to lure the 1%.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 unch. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.69 -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for November is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in October.

• Personal Spending for November is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in October.

• The PCE Core MoM for November is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in October.

• Durable Goods Orders for November is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -.8% decline in October.

• Durables Ex Transports for November is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.9% gain in October.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for November is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in October.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for November is estimated to fall to 655K versus 685K in October.

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 97.2 versus a prior estimate of 96.8.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for December is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 16.0 in November.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US govt funding deadline, UK GDP report and the German GfK Consumer Confidence report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Seasonality, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 9.57 -1.54%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.22 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.93 +2.85%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.62 +1.52%

• ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -32.11%
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +3.75%

• NYSE Arms .59 -30.40%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.57 -1.48%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 374.0 -.41%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 44.86 -1.13%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.96 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.25 -.23%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 121.01 +.39%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.81 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 31.5 +7.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -65.25 -9.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.72 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.34% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 60.5 -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 515.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes -.39%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.90 -4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.20 -.6 basis point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 +.7 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +2.0 basis points
  
• 69.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 71.7% chance at May 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 64.9% of Issues Advancing, 32.3% Declining
• 115 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 60.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0%
• Vix 9.6 -1.4%
• Total Put/Call .81 +1.3%
• TRIN/Arms .66 -22.9%