Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 41.4% Declining
• 85 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 50.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.1%
• Vix 12.1 -6.6%
• Total Put/Call .81 +11.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +5.0%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -.25 basis point 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.75 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.55 -.03%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.40%.
• S&P 500 futures -.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (MIK)/.38

After the Close:

• (ADBE)/1.54
• (FNSR)/.12
• (JBL)/.44

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for May are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for May are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for May are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April. 
• The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petro for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.
• The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 223K versus 222K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1734K versus 1741K prior.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for April are estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (TREX) 2-for-1
• (HBNC) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Retail Sales/Industrial Production report, ECB rate decision, Australia Unemployment report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA national gas inventory report, Credit Suisse Semi Supply Chain Conference, (AXL) investor day and the (PII) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, FOMC Commentary, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Homebuilding/REIT Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.73 +3.16%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.33 +.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.60 +.42%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.31 +4.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -42.9%
  

• Total Put/Call .71 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.06 +24.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.51 -.68%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 377.0 -.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.18 -3.49%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.50 -4.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.80 +1.59%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.17 +1.09%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.79 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 unch.

• TED Spread 40.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 +3.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.57 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.93% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 40.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 65.87 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.60 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -100.30 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.0 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
  
• 82.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 83.8% chance at November 8th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -41 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

•   Small-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -4.2% 2) Papers -1.5% 3) REITs -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• USAC, GLMD, TAL, HRB, T, SE, SAIC, GTLS, LE, TREE, BSX and CRSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HRB 2) CSX 3) TWX 4) SYF 5) NBR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HRB 2) ADXS 3) GME 4) YELP 5) AKER

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +.9% 2) Alt Energy +.8% 3) Semis +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TWX, KFY, BITA, SYK, YRIV, FOXA, BILI, MEDP, IGV, ATNX, MDGL, FOX, CBLK, IOVA, SFIX, WMGI, COOL, VKTX, FBC, ALTR, REV, DIS, SIMO, BG, AMCX, PVTL, TCMD, APPN, APLS, ATNX, ROKU, NFLX, DISCA, TDOC, MEDP, AET, IMMR and CYRX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TSRO 2) HRB 3) KKR 4) MIK 5) PENN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENPH 2) KFY 3) CVS 4) SAGE 5) FDC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 35.9% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 52.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.4%
• Vix 12.2 -.8%
• Total Put/Call .70 -1.4%
• TRIN/Arms .91 +7.3%