Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 -.13%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.26%

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BHGE)/.14

• (CLF)/.52

• (GE)/.17

• (GNTX)/.40

• (HON)/2.01

• (KSU)/1.51

• (MAN)/2.37

• (NVR)/47.21

• (RF)/.33

• (SLB)/.43

• (SWK)/2.03

• (STT)/2.01

• (STI)/1.31

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the (SCHW) business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -1.75 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.62 -.07%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.05%
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ADS)/4.67
• (BBT)/1.01
• (BX)/.74
• (BK)/1.02
• (DHR)/1.09
• (DPZ)/1.74
• (FITB)/.57
• (GPC)/1.57
• (KEY)/.42
• (NUE)/2.09
• (PM)/1.23
• (SAP)/1.00
• (TSM)/2.75
• (UNP)/1.95

After the Close:

• (COF)/2.62
• (CTAS)/1.68
• (ETFC)/.88
• (ISRG)/2.49
• (MSFT)/1.08
• (SWKS)/1.60

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 220K versus 214K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1729K versus 1739K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for July is estimated to rise to 21.5 versus 19.9 in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment report, Japan CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for July, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (FUL) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.50 -.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.76 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.46%

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/.71

• (ASML)/1.21

• (MS)/1.10

• (TXT)/.70

• (USB)/1.00

After the Close:

• (AA)/1.32

• (AXP)/1.81

• (CP)/3.11

• (CCI)/1.21

• (EBAY)/.51

• (IBM)/3.04

• (KMI)/.19

• (URI)/3.53

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for June are estimated to fall to 1320K versus 1350K.

• Building Permits for June are estimated to rise to 1330K versus 1301K in May.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,456,420 barrels versus a -12,633,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -395,270 barrels versus a -694,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,353,640 barrels versus a +4,125,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.01% versus a -.4% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Releases Beige Book.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testimony to House, Eurozone CPI report, UK PPI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.78 -.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.27%.
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (SCHW)/.58
• (CMA)/1.68
• (GS)/4.65
• (JNJ)/2.07
• (OMC)/1.54
• (PGR)/1.11
• (UNH)/3.04

After the Close:

• (CSX)/.86
• (IBKR)/.42
• (MRTN)/.22
• (UAL)/3.07

Economic Releases 
9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.1% decline in May.
• Manufacturing Production for June is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.7% decline in May.
• Capacity Utilization for June is estimated to rise to 78.3% versus 77.9% in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated at 68 versus 68 in June.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to Senate, China New Home Price report, UK Unemployment report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 -2.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.5 -.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.72 unch.
• FTSE 100 futures -.10%
• S&P 500 futures +.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.59
• (BLK)/6.57
• (JBHT)/1.28

After the Close:

• (NFLX)/.79

Economic Releases

8:30 pm EST

• Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated to fall to 20.6 versus 25.0 in June.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in May. 
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in May.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The President's meeting with Putin and the China GDP/Industrial Production reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on stable long-term rates, US economic optimism, earnings outlooks, technical buying, less Emerging Markets debt angst and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.