Friday, September 07, 2018

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -2.7% 2) Gaming -1.3% 3) Construction -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TLYS, KFY, CRTO, BOLD, TSLA and ING
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FDC 2) FNSR 3) MDLZ 4) LNG 5) WMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VSI 2) CRTO 3) RS 4) IMH 5) TROW
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +1.1% 2) Internet +.7% 3) Retail +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DRNA, PRQR, OKTA, FIVE, MCFT, FNSR, PSDO, NX, BXG, PEB, NITE, MRVL, ABM, CGC, PANW, XENE, CRON, ZS, CVGW, IGV, PSCH, DCI, AVGO, PDD, ULTA, DOMO, FNKO, SFM and MDP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) SFM 3) OKTA 4) VMC 5) FDC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FIVE 2) OKTA 3) FNSR 4) ABM 5) AVGO
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:           
  • Asia Stocks End Torrid Week With Drop; Yen Gains. Asian stocks are ending the worst week since March with further declines amid ongoing concerns about global trade and emerging markets. The yen rose and Treasuries held onto gains. Equities fell in Japan, Australia and South Korea, while futures in China and Hong Kong pointed to losses. Weakness in technology shares weighed on U.S. markets amid concern about the durability of chip demand, and the VIX index headed for its biggest weekly increase in two months. Emerging-market stocks and currencies steadied after further losses overnight. The yen strengthened after the Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump may turn his sights on trade with Japan. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index slipped 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.6 percent. FTSE China A50 index futures declined 0.1 percent.  
Business Insider:
Fast Company:
  • Survey says Nike’s(NKE) brand image has dropped because of Colin Kaepernick ad. Morning Consult reports that Nike’s brand favorability and consumer purchase consideration have significantly sunk, but Nike is playing a long game. According to the survey, before the Kaepernick announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers. That has now dropped by 34 points to +35 favorable. Before the ad, 49% of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products, and that figure is down to 39% now. Another key point of the survey is that brand favorability didn’t only drop for folks you might expect to be red hat-sporting members of the MAGA brigade, but also among millennials, Gen Z, and African-Americans.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.5 -1.0 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.75 -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.14 -.07%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (GCO)/-.03
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated at 195K versus 157K in July.
  • The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated to fall to 3.8% versus 3.9% in July.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Eurozone GDP report, China Foreign Reserves report, Goldman Biotech Symposium, (QSII) Analyst Day and the (MDLZ) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Earnings Jitters, Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 +5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.10 -.61%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.98 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.64 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +3.81%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +8.16%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +96.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.57 -1.19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 421.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.94 -1.68%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 270.25 +14.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.70 -2.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 225.68 -4.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.40 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.0 +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.08 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.13% unch.
  • Yield Curve 24.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.26 USD/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .1 -5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.50 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 -1.0 basis point
  • 95.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.4% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -17 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long