Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 46.2% of Issues Advancing, 50.9% Declining
• 102 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 50.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.7%
• Vix 14.6 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .87 -4.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 +47.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.75 -.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 49.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 -.06%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.74%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABB)/.33
• (BUD)/.96
• (CARS)/.57
• (FSS)/.31
• (FRO)/.18
• (ICPT)/-2.49
• (JCP)/.18
• (PRTY)/1.09
• (PDCO)/.38
• (BID)/1.48
• (JD)/-.27

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.07
• (ALRM)/.24
• (ADSK)/.42
• (DELL)/1.85
• (GPS)/.69
• (MAR)/1.40
• (JWN)/1.42
• (NTNX)/-.25
• (SPLK)/.76
• (SRCL)/.95
• (VMW)/1.88
• (WDAY)/.32
• (ZS)/-.01

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 220K versus 216K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1737K versus 1725K prior 
• Advance 4Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +3.4% gain in 3Q.
• Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +3.5% gain in 3Q.
• Advance 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a +1.8% gain in 3Q.
• Advance 4Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.6% gain in 3Q.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for February is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 56.7 in January.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 6.0 versus 5.0 in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, China Manufacturing PMI report, Japan Unemployment Rate/CPI reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Cards/Payments/Financial Tech symposium,  (CR) investor day, (WAT) investor day and the (PGR) 4Q Investor Event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Gain, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.93 -1.58%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.18 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 -1.52%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.50 -.61%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +26.7%
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +10.7%

• NYSE Arms .71 -35.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.01 -.94%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 510.0 -5.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.67 -3.62%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 263.75 +5.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.46 -.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.56 -.88%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.52 -.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 19.25 -1.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 19.0 +3.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 81.70 USD/Metric Tonne +1.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.60 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.50 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 +2.0 basis points
• 1.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 2) Gold & Silver -1.9% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WTW, DY, INGN, PEN, MYL, AAXN, VICR, CLGX, LIVN, PGTI, EVH, BNFT, WLL, DIOD and LASR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EPI 2) AET 3) WTW 4) IMGN 5) WLL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WTW 2) MYL 3) EVH 4) KHC 5) TOL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +1.5% 2) Retail +1.3% 3) Oil Service +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VSM, SE, TNDM, GCP, MGTX, PVTL, MIDD, WBC, DHR, GWPH, BBY, RARE, IONS, MELI, LLY, SRPT, ELAN, WAB, PANW, CPB, MED, SUPN, FBM, GKOS, FRPT, DRQ, OSTK, GCP, IONS, SUPN, FOXF, MTDR, CDNA, INSP, SVMK, SHOO, MASI, PAN, ETSY, PLNT, OUT, TJX and MMSI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IVZ 2) BBY 3) TJX 4) MNST 5) PANW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BBY 2) TNDM 3) CHK 4) ODP 5) PANW

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 45.7% of Issues Advancing, 50.5% Declining
• 56 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 50.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.8%
• Vix 15.15 -.13%
• Total Put/Call .87 +3.6%
• TRIN/Arms .61 -44.6%