Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Gain, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.93 -1.58%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.18 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 -1.52%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.50 -.61%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +26.7%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +10.7%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -35.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.01 -.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 510.0 -5.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.67 -3.62%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 263.75 +5.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.46 -.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.56 -.88%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.52 -.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 -1.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 19.0 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.70 USD/Metric Tonne +1.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.60 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.50 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 +2.0 basis points
  • 1.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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