Thursday, February 28, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Earnings Outlooks, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.86 +1.09%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.73 +.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.28 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.34 +.17%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +6.06%
  • Total Put/Call .91 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +53.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.16 +.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 505.0 -.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.89 +.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 257.0 -6.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.07 -.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.56 +.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.57 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -2.26 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.22 -.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.25 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.83 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.80 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.80 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 unch.
  • 1.7% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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