Friday, February 22, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Outlooks, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.83 -4.36%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.42 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.68 -2.03%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.05 -2.28%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 +61.3%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -20.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +13.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.19 +1.20%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 541.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.71 +2.54%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 275.25 +4.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.56 -.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.82 -.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.27 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -.25 basis point.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.25 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.0 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.04 USD/Metric Tonne +2.76%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.40 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.0 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 +1.0 basis point
  • .9% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, .8% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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