Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Outlooks, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.66 -1.28%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.91 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 -.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.57 +.41%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -15.2%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +7.69%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -18.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.48 -.73%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 539.0 -.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.65 -3.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 258.5 -8.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.50 +.36%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.75 -1.47%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.69 +.25%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 20.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 -.25 basis point.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.44 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.68 USD/Metric Tonne +.77%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.50 -7.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.70 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.90 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 -1.0 basis point
  • 1.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.5% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +86 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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