Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• ‘Trump Time’ Meets Reality as Trade Talks Test His Speed Demands.

• U.S., China Have Some Explaining to Do as March 1 Deadline Looms.

• Singapore's Economy Expands at a Weaker Pace Than Estimated.

• Asian Stocks Set for Decline; Treasuries Advance. Asian stocks looked set to end the week with declines following a dip in U.S. equities as concern about the economy resurfaced and as investors weighed the outlook for trade developments. Treasuries climbed. Futures pointed to a lower start for shares in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 Index fell after the worst drop for retail sales in nine years. That sent the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.65 percent. Signs Congress would avert another government shutdown limited losses in U.S. shares until President Donald Trump said he intends to sign a government funding bill and at the same time declare a national emergency to get more money for a border wall. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3 percent. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.7 percent in Singapore. Hang Seng futures dropped 0.5 percent. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.    

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• ‘Trump Time’ Meets Reality, EU v Populism, Retail Slump: Eco Day.  

• China Won't Come to the Rescue in Global Iron Ore Supply Crisis.

• Blankfein Says Move Against Amazon in NYC Was ‘Anti-Democratic’.

• Warren Buffett Doubles Down on Big Banks as Berkshire Trims Apple Stake.  

• Ford(F) and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation.

Wall St. Journal:

• Trump Will Sign Spending Package, Declare Emergency.

• This Common Flu Virus Is a Growing Threat.

• Amazon Cancels HQ2 Plans in New York City.

• Barr Confirmed as Attorney General.

• Will Republicans Start Winning on Health Care?

• Icahn to Push Caesars to Consider Selling Itself.

• Fed Officials Near Plan to Finish Portfolio Wind-Down.

MarketWatch.com:

• Should stock-market investors freak out over an earnings recession? These charts say no.

Fox News:

• Governor slams Ocasio-Cortez, other politicians, as Amazon ditches New York.

• GOP call for re-do vote on high-speed rail after Newsom's 'bait-and-switch'.

CNBC:

• Pelosi warns GOP that a Democratic president could declare gun violence a national emergency.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Truecar, CBS and more.

Zero Hedge:

• Americans Continue To Flee To Low-Tax States.  

• Property Prices Are Plummeting In Super-Wealthy Dubai.

• 'Empire' Star Faked Chicago "MAGA Country" Attack With Two Extras: Report.

• Socialized Healthcare Reality Exposed: 30,000 Dead Due To Record Long Hospital Waiting Times.  

• NYC Councilman Says Union Dispute Killed Amazon Deal, Not Subsidies.

• "Their Careers Are Over:" Real Estate Brokers Furious At Politicians For Shock Amazon Withdrawal.

• Trump Will Declare State Of National Emergency To Fund Border Wall; Pelosi Threatens Legal Challenge.

• Stocks Stumble After Retail Rout, Coke Collapse, Bezos Bombshell, & Trade Turmoil.

Business Insider:

• Nvidia(NVDA) surges after beating on profits and sales expectations.

Telegraph:

• Comment: Europe will have to offer May a Brexit concession or risk a diplomatic and economic disaster.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 +.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.0 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.86 -.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AXL)/.42

• (DE)/1.77

• (MCO)/1.68

• (NWL)/.65

• (ZEUS)/.17

• (PEP)/1.50

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 3.9 in Jan.

• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -1.0% decline in Dec.

• The Import Price Index Ex Petro MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.

• The Export Prices Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.6% decline in Dec.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.

• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated at 78.7% versus 78.7% in Dec.

• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated unch. versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• 4Q Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures.

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Feb. is estimated to rise to 93.5 versus 91.2 in Jan.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report, Eurozone Trade Balance report, Govt funding deadline for agencies and the (HAS) investor update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.