Thursday, February 14, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trde Deal Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Yen Strength, Gaming/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.76 +.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.80 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.91 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.01 -.02%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +8.14%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -11.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 -7.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.34 +.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 559.0 +.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.0 +.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 270.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.37 -.76%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.90 -.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.98 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +2.0 basis points.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.90 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.25 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 84.80 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.70 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -80.60 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.5 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 unch.
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 3.8% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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