Monday, February 25, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Technical Buying, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.15 +4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.20 +.66%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.65 +.35%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.41 -.26%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -36.4%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -6.49%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -41.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.88 -2.67%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 539.0 -.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.0 -5.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 266.5 -8.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.35 -1.69%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.86 -2.88%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.27 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -1.25 basis points.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.40 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.0 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.30 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +1.0 basis point
  • 1.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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