Monday, February 04, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.62 -3.22%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.60 +.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.91 +.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.11 +2.28%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +45.1%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -26.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 unch.
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.55 -1.78%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 665.0 +1.90%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.25 +2.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 255.75 +2.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.32 -1.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.86 -.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.17 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.73 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.38% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 18.75 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.50 USD/Metric Tonne +3.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.30 -9.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -78.2 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.5 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 -1.0 basis point
  • 1.9% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 6.5% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -8 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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