Thursday, February 07, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, Global Growth Fears, European Debt Angst, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.95 +10.21%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.53 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.97 +.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.18 -1.82%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -22.0%
  • Total Put/Call .99 +3.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 -2.22%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.28 +4.08%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 658.0 -.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.49 +5.23%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 283.5 +14.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.83 +.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.39 +2.12%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.23 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -3.5 basis points.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.35 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 17.25 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.02 USD/Metric Tonne +2.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.0 -2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -79.1 -4.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.2 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.1% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -221 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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