Friday, February 15, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Financial/Telecom Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.04 -7.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.71 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.81 -.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.18 -3.08%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +13.5%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -11.96%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -7.41%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -2.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 561.0 +.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.79 -2.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 269.75 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.31 +.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.48 -1.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 157.08 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -.5 basis point.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.98 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 14.75 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.60 -7.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -79.70 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.9 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 2.4% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +121 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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