Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says He’s Inclined to Keep Base in Iraq to ‘Watch’ Iran.

• Venezuela's Guaido Seeks Talks With China, Morning Post Reports.

• Asian Stocks Look Set for Gains; Dollar Steady. Asian stocks looked set for modest gains Monday following strong U.S. economic data Friday and positive comments out of Washington on the trade talks. Trading may be subdued as much of the region heads into Lunar New Year holidays. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump told CBS trade talks with Beijing are “doing very well” and sounded confident an agreement with North Korea was on the horizon. Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia ticked higher. On Friday, U.S. stocks eked out a small gain as better-than-expected jobs and manufacturing reports overshadowed a disappointing sales forecast from Amazon. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, while the dollar edged up. Oil rose past $55 a barrel in New York, reaching the highest since November. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.2 percent in Osaka.S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.3 percent.

• JPMorgan Says 2020 'Might Not Be Year to Think About Recession'.

• Powell Marks One Year on the Job as Fed Turns Dovish.

• U.S. Raising Active Duty Forces at Mexico Border to About 4,350.

• Wall Street Makes New Bid for Easier Shorting of Chinese Stocks.  

• Democrats Keep Up Pressure as Virginia Governor Northam Digs In.

Wall Street Journal:

• No Dialogue for Maduro.

• Elizabeth Warren Doesn’t Understand Wealth Taxes.

• Small Businesses Are Waving the Caution Flag.

• How China Pressured MSCI to Add Its Market to Major Benchmark.

• State of the Union Guests Will Reflect Immigration Split.

• Sanctions on Venezuela’s Crude Hit Oil Market in Vulnerable Spot.

Fox News:

• Trump slams Pelosi, details troops' role in Iraq, speaks to anthem controversy in Super Bowl chat.

CNBC:

• How January became the month where everything on Wall Street roared back after a rough 2018.

• Here’s why ‘Shark Tank’s’ Kevin O’Leary is betting on small caps to keep beating the S&P 500.

• Morgan Stanley: Here’s how Apple could send its stock soaring by 27% this year.

Zero Hedge:

• "Unforgivable" - Trump Slams Racist, Late-Term-Abortion-Supporting Democrat VA Governor.

• Bodycam Captures Militant Antifa Shot In The Head By Cops After Pulling Gun.

• Mocking Mueller's Collusion-Free Collusion Indictment Of Roger Stone.

• NBC News Exposed 'Reporting' Pure Propaganda On Gabbard's Russia Links From Disinfo-Democrat.

• Venezuela's Self-Declared President Reaches Out To China As Trump Repeats Military Force Is "An Option".

• In Super Bowl Interview, Trump Warns: Pelosi Is "Very Bad For Our Country".

• It's Not Brexit But 'Deutsche-it' You Want To Worry About.

• Brexit 'Chicken': 1-2 Years Of Pain Now Versus Permanent Idiocy.

• As US Freezes, This Is Where Europeans Can't Afford To Heat Their Homes.

• Unrest In France: No End In Sight.

• If You Are Warm Right Now, Thank Capitalism.

Business Insider:

• 11 brands that shoppers are obsessed with, from body wash to paper towels. 

• Drones are no longer a cool novelty only a handful of companies are testing — they're infiltrating a slew of industries and applications.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.82 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.51

• (ALXN)/1.84

• (BZH)/.14

• (CLX)/1.31

• (MDP)/1.29

• (SYY)/.73

After the Close:

• (GOOG)/9.70

• (AVB)/2.31

• (FN)/.92

• (GILD)/1.71

• (LM)/.71

• (OLN)/.36

• (STX)/1.27

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Nov. are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -2.1% decline in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.