Thursday, February 21, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Technical Selling, Oil Decline, Biotech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.89 +6.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.39 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.87 +.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.36 +.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +36.5%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +19.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +15.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.90 +2.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 538.0 +.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.66 +1.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 270.50 -5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.23 -1.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.71 +.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.09 +.25%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 21.0 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 +2.75 basis points.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.09 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.25 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.60 -5.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.0 +9.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +2.0 basis points
  • .9% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.1% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -99 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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